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Sunday, April 15, 2018

Pointless casting: who Putin wants to see the new Prime Minister

One of the main political intrigue of the next month and a half: who is Vladimir Putin appointed the head of government after his inauguration in may. The new old President has done everything to maintain the intrigue, immediately after the election saying: “On the candidacy of Prime Minister begin subject think today”. Some observers have read into these words “the sentence” the current Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to say: if Putin wanted to keep it at the head of the government, then what to think. But do not hurry with conclusions: it is likely that the correct member unique “tandem” on the top of the Russian government will retain the second highest position in the country.

photo: Natalia Gubernatorova

The CEC did not manage to calculate the results of the presidential election, and divination on the candidacy of the future Prime Minister in the camp of interested observers has already begun with a vengeance. To date, you can not just make a “long list” candidates in the upcoming premiere, but even their a certain way to rank. The first conditional group: current members of the government, counting on the increase. Here experts often refer first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin. The second group of ladies. The best half of the candidates present, the President of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina and the head of the accounting chamber Tatyana Golikova. The third group — the former members of the government, known for its proximity to the first person. In this series — head CSR Alexei Kudrin, the head of “Rosneft” Igor Sechin, Secretary of the Russian security Council Nikolai Patrushev. The fourth block – “dark horse” or “technical premiere”. In this series, hear the names of the current head of the presidential administration Anton Vaino, the mayor of Moscow Sergey Sobyanin, presidential aide on economic issues Andrei Belousov. In this regard, analysts recall the experience of “early” Putin from the beginning “zero”, when at the head of the government, to the surprise of all experts recruited people not from the first a political number, Mikhail Kasyanov, Viktor Zubkov, Mikhail Fradkov.

However, I’d venture that all of the current bust candidates, and “casting” candidates for Prime Minister, empty troubles. The probability is that the current “owner” of the White house safely retain his post. Putin’s words about thoughts on the candidacy of the Prime Minister may wear a ritual. As you know, the current government is by law destined to lay down its powers before the newly elected head of state, and therefore the last Willy nilly have to think about the new Cabinet of Ministers and its Chairman. But this does not prevent the President after the inauguration to say something like: “I carefully thought about everything, weighed, consulted, and came to the unequivocal conclusion that at this stage a better candidate than Dmitry Medvedev is not.”

And I must say, in favor of such a scenario, there are many arguments. First, so far Vladimir Putin has not expressed, at least publicly, any strict claims to the government under the leadership of Medvedev. Yes, in 2014-2016, the country experienced a serious economic crisis, but it was not caused by failures of Executive power, and geopolitical reasons, and the dramatic fall in oil prices. To date, the government may not without difficulty, but turned back onto the path of economic growth. In addition, it actively participates in the agreement OPEC+, thereby affecting the measure of their forces on the unpredictable oil prices and maintaining them at a sufficiently profitable level.

Secondly, the Prime Minister’s change is appropriate in the presence of powerful applications for change economic course. In anticipation 20189 years, a number of experts, by the way, this scenario is predicted. Say, Alexei Kudrin, on the instructions of the President is developing a new country development strategy, Putin will take it into service, and after the election, Kudrin will instruct her to perform as Prime Minister. But the script didn’t work: the strategy of Kudrin so far not been published, the most acute and the reform proposal from the former Minister of Finance, the type of mandatory increase in the retirement age, much delight neither the government nor the companies do not cause. Observers also note that two days before the election, Putin gave instructions to the government at the end of his address to the Federal Assembly, which are quite populist in nature: one and a half times to increase the pace of economic growth to halve poverty and so on. It is unlikely that these challenges can be resolved within the framework of the unpopular reformatory steps offered by Kudrin. So, most likely, the latter is not destined to leave the “bench,” which he “polishes” since his resignation from the government in the era of Medvedev’s presidency.

Third, Dmitry Medvedev has a unique guiding experience in the “Putin era”: he had to work not only chief of staff, first Deputy Prime Minister and Prime Minister, but the President himself. In this way he acquired not only an invaluable managerial experience, but has proven his absolute devotion to the first person. Why to search from good of good and to start a radical shake-up of Executive power, at the risk of paralyzing its work at least six months? Rukovoditel direction “Finance and Economics” Institute of contemporary development Nikita Maslennikov believes that the future Prime Minister needs to understand the structural agenda, able to work in the designated areas and have a serious knowledge in the field of Finance and monetary policy, to be respected in the expert community and business circles, to be able to debate, argue their point of view and dialogue. All these caecidae, according to experts, has Dmitry Medvedev.

However, opponents of the current Kremlin authorities believe Medvedev is a weak Prime Minister and a dependent figure. Moreover, public criticism of him personally and of his Cabinet of Ministers allow themselves even ardent fans of Vladimir Putin. But in the eyes of the last it just might be a kind of an additional advantage: as explained “MK” Director of the Institute of contemporary Economics Nikita Isaev, the Prime Minister plays the role of a “lightning rod” to maintain a positive image of the President. Suffice it to recall the scandalous report of Alexey Navalny: his object was “Dimon” and not “Vova”.

Finally, there is the factor of the future of succession: as it did at the time, leaving Boris Yeltsin, Vladimir Putin may be on his last term to run as Prime Minister, whom he after 6 years, will give the reins of the country. But first, to start this is now clearly before: can get a false start. And secondly, who said that the successor to Putin, not Dmitry Medvedev?

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