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Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Purely electoral murder: poisoning Skripal change the last term of Putin

Vladimir Putin will be reelected President for a fourth term. The stay of the Crimea as part of Russia’s about to turn four years old. A new “cold war” in relations between our country and the West’s move to a qualitatively new level. We don’t know whether there was a massacre of exponential embarked on the path of betrayal the ex-GRU officer Sergey Skripal is dedicated to one of the upcoming “red dates” calendar. But in the new political reality, the calculations and the ideas of the organizers of a chemical attack in the centre of a large British cities no longer have significant value. As a result, cases Skripal relations between Russia and Britain finally passed the point of no return. London for years to come, have secured the role of worst enemy of Moscow in the Western world. Moscow this situation is, of course, not like it, but she sees no alternative to him and willing to accept it as a given.

Commenting in social networks amazing event in Salisbury, the President of the international Federation Council Committee Konstantin Kosachev very clearly formulated the idea that these days in the minds of all reasonable-minded people: “I do not have the required expertise and know about the spy wars only from the same spy novels. But even to me it is clear that the special operation on elimination of objectionable persons, organized by the professionals would not need to leave traces. It is the task of the minimum minimorum. That is a weapon (in this case poison) supposed to be common, public and impersonal, that is, not having a nationality… In the same episode (again, if you take it on faith that the data are not rigged and that the British forensics not mistaken), “heritage”. Or rather to put the investigation on “the right” trail”.

Let me quote another very important for understanding the current situation the statement of the head of the international Committee of the Russian Senate: “Frankly worried about the trend: we here have decided themselves investigating themselves have sentenced themselves judged. And should Russia be justified even without the presentation of her evidence and no participation at all stages of the process… a Total presumption of guilt, when he argues not a court and the Prosecutor and the accused”.

I completely agree with both of these theses dear Konstantin Kosachev. I agree — but I think that they belong to some other political reality. To reality that may have existed yesterday or rather the day before yesterday, but which has definitely not today. In the reality, which is, to complain about the fact that London belongs to the Moscow on the basis of the principle of the presumption of guilt of Russia, the occupation is deeply meaningless. The political leadership of the Russian Federation has grown accustomed to this approach and do not expect from London nothing else.

The principle of “better a bad peace than a good quarrel” in relations between Russia and the UK is no longer working. Of course, neither one nor the other side do not want a direct military confrontation with each other. But except for this absolute taboo in relation to acute confrontation between Moscow and London no longer makes sense to use the term “prohibited methods”. Allowed everything that hurts “partner”. The only limiting force and the direction of impact is the fear that the enemy will follow your example and will put you on the same sore spot.

At the moment when I write these lines, both Moscow and London continue difficult “diplomatic dance” designed to show that the opposing party (as you are great and mighty, our beloved Russian language!) responsible for a strong crisis in the relationship. For example, instead of giving a direct answer to an ultimatum of London, our Minister Sergei Lavrov gracefully “threw the ball” back to British shores: “Russia is innocent. Russia is ready to cooperate in accordance with the Convention on the prohibition of chemical weapons, if the United Kingdom will bother and will condescend to honour their international legal commitments in the same document.”

But all this is nothing more than the process, which in the English language is described by the formula going through the motions — actions purely for the sake of formality. The die is cast, the Rubicon has been crossed. And, it seems, according to some in the Russian elite, regret crossing the Rubicon is not worth it. According to this logic, long before the case Skripal British political class has taken the steadfast position Russophobic, and the poisoning of the former employee GRU only made the London finally throw off the mask. Certain especially “hot heads” in Moscow, even openly celebrate such developments. They say, how nice that now you can no longer hypocritical! Isn’t it refreshing that we have a moral right to openly call their enemy’s enemy?

From my point of view is not refreshing. I would not want to fall into unrestrained cynicism. But, in my opinion, people who voluntarily chose for himself the existence in the world of espionage, treachery and double of the game, at least don’t have to wonder any surprises on his life’s journey. But civilians, of which, indeed, is the population of Salisbury, did not choose for himself life in the world of espionage — for them this choice was made by others.

True that events in Salisbury, in fact, nothing has changed in Russian-British relations. Change, unfortunately, is obvious. Yes, the prospects of a political warming between Moscow and London was completely absent long before the moment when Sergei Skripal fell into a coma. But in the British “political yesterday,” the priority of the rhetoric about the need for a tough confrontation with Russia. In the British “political” priority was itself such a confrontation. Feel the difference?

Previously, Britain was completely focused on Brucite — painful and humiliating for the country the process of withdrawal from the European Union. Now Bracito have to make room. Amid a fierce battle between London and Saint Petersburg for influence in Central Asia in Russian society of the NINETEENTH century was a very common expression “Englishwoman shits”. Now “English” — in this case, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Theresa may — will have to do something serious in order to on a regular basis “shit” of Russia. Given the General mood of the British political class, of a variant Theresa may just not.

It is important to remember that the UK is emerging from EU and not from NATO. Now we have not just a sharp aggravation of relations between Russia and one particular not the most important country in the Western world. The new irritant has appeared in the common agenda of relations between Moscow and the Western bloc. Of course, within NATO, each state its own interest. Not all members of the Alliance will strongly support anti-Russian “crusade” in London. But as a result of the case Skripal and without that not the strongest Western supporters of normalizing relations with Moscow will become even more weak and vulnerable.

I understand the feelings of those Russian citizens who consider that settled in Britain, the traitor got what he deserved. Understand — but refuse to share them. Regardless of who actually organized the chemical attack in Salisbury, because of the peculiarities of the modern international market to pay the political and economic price for this attack will be Russia. I believe this situation is unfair, intolerable, even immoral. But, unfortunately, the world is what it is, and not how we would like it to be.

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