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Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Munich agreement: the experts revealed the theme of the upcoming negotiations, “Norman Quartet»


The former head of NATO and Advisor to the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko Anders Fogh Rasmussen at the Munich security conference will speak about the need for accommodation in the Donbas 24 thousand UN peacekeepers. From them 20 thousand are military and 4 thousand police officers. It is assumed that in this case, the conflict in Eastern Ukraine will be resolved in 12 months. “MK” has found out, whether it will agree Moscow.

Rasmussen luck in Munich Poroshenko’s plan.

In the framework of the Munich conference should be another round of negotiations in Norman format. In this regard, on February 12 on the initiative of the Ukrainian side, a telephone conversation between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko. Special attention was paid to the exchange of prisoners, according to representatives of heads of state, with Poroshenko promised to help find the cause of the crash of An-148 in the suburbs. But since the negotiations were not short, most likely, and the theme of the upcoming meeting in Munich was discussed.

February 16, during the Norman meeting between Moscow and Kiev, obviously, will try to bring together their diametrically opposed vision of deploying the peacekeeping mission in the Donbas. The report Rasmussen said that the ranks of the “blue helmets” in the Donbass can enter the military from Sweden, Belarus and Brazil. However, an expert on UN peacekeeping General Jaakko Oksanen, commenting on the impending speech by the former head of NATO, said that 24 thousand peacekeepers still too big. According to him, the maximum possible contingent of 20 thousand people, and in a year they will have to spend about 1 billion euros.

Earlier in Moscow have argued that even this number of soldiers is not acceptable, as it would actually mean the occupation of Donbass. At the end of January 2018 Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov said that the special representative of the United States Ukraine Kurt Volker suggested to him that it is implemented plan to deploy a peacekeeping mission, but did not say what was the compromise possible.

We will remind, in the beginning of September 2017, with the idea of placing blue helmets on the Donbass for the first time officially made by Moscow, which was sent to the UN security Council a draft resolution. The document said that the peacekeepers in the East of Ukraine must be on the frontline of Ukraine with the self-proclaimed DND and LNR and be confined solely to the protection of the OSCE observation mission. In turn, the United States, the European Union and Ukraine have insisted that foreign troops were distributed throughout the ATO, including control of the border with Russia.

However, no matter what is agreed on 16 February, the heads of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany, in practice this may prevent the so-called party of war. One of its leaders, the Secretary of Council of national security and defense of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov, has said that Kyiv is ready to return to the NPT and LC power. The former acting President gave Crimea without firing a shot, claims that the General staff of the Republic establishes the joint operations headquarters according to NATO standards for the capture of Donetsk and Lugansk.

Experts of “MK” said the Rasmussen report:

Denis DENISOV, Director of the Institute for peace initiatives and conflict resolution:

The Rasmussen report is irrelevant to the negotiations Volcker–Surkov. So far there are no agreements or arrangements for the deployment of peacekeeping forces, its powers and strength. In this case, we are dealing with another attempt by the President to run ahead of the engine. The report will be taken into consideration, but only as the adviser of the person wanting to break into the negotiation process between Russia and the United States. In fact, first we must understand how effective in the Donbass can be only security the UN mission that I think about it in the DNI and LC and so on. It is for this is going to “channel four”, and after it will meet again Volker and marmots.

Andrew BUZAROV, a member of the public Council under the MFA of Ukraine:

— In fact, Rasmussen will announce the official position of the Ukrainian leadership regarding the deployment of the peacekeeping contingent. The probability of this plan is zero. However, Poroshenko needs to show that Kiev has its own principal position, to be reckoned with. The Ukrainian government, nothing like this would have taken if the settlement of the conflict in the Donbas has not been deadlocked or would have seen some progress from the meeting with Surkov Volker. Even France and Germany about a year ago distanced itself from the war in the Donbass. Bezrybe Kiev is trying to attract attention.

Alexei MAKARKIN, a senior analyst with the Center for political technologies:

— Until now, Russia and the United States have not found a compromise on a peacekeeping mission in the Donbas. On the eve of the publication of the “Kremlin report”, when it was still unclear how severe it can be, Surkov said on acceptable offer Volcker, but it is still unknown what it was. At the same time it is obvious to everyone that the confrontation in the Donbass it’s time to finish and peacekeepers to do it will not work. The parties must agree on the number, composition and conditions of their placement, as well as a combined mission with the Minsk agreements. In this sense, the Rasmussen report can be seen as an attempt by Western experts to understand the limits of flexibility of Russia.

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