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Tuesday, February 20, 2018

The hidden meaning of the “Kremlin report”: who deceived who


Sanctions — this is serious. The clip narrows their channels of receipt to Russia of financial resources and new technologies, and therefore impoverishes our future, preparing us to further the gap. To compensate for these losses is almost impossible, not due to the search for alternative sources (which has already been tested: the hope of capital in the framework of untied loans from China, for example, failed miserably), or due to self-reliance (to learn from the experience of the Soviet Union). Yes, and import-substituting agricultural growth in recent years, becoming one of the pulses of positive dynamics of GDP, however, has not led to the flourishing of the quality and competitiveness of products offered.

The U.S. Treasury – the organization that published “the Kremlin report”

Now everyone is waiting for new us sanctions, they are hearing. But what’s noteworthy: a lot of noise, and further clamp yet. Hitch.

Published “Kremlin report”, where named all the key figures of Russian business and government, but with an undeclared sanctions. More like poker, in which the rate — stability of the nervous system of those who this game is imposed. Or kichkovsky Thriller, which pumps the tense expectation of something inevitable and terrible, the suspence. The deck is also a closed list, which promised the names received a “black mark” and specify the sanctions themselves, their cards have not yet opened.

Further — more. The American Ministry of Finance, as expected, issued a report on the proliferation of sanctions on investments in Russian debt securities. But again, without actual sanctions. What is happening? Sabotage, rethinking the policy of sanctions or a technical break?

Should listen to the answer, which gives the U.S. Treasury: sanctions against Russian public debt may have “spillover effects on global financial markets and business.” Someone from Moscow figures, contractional fallen into rage, it may seem that Americans are scared to meet Russian opposition in the form of refusal to purchase securities of the us Treasury or their massive sales. But it’s a shot “in milk”. First, new buyers for us paper without difficulty. Second, the sale will lead to a fall in the value of Russian reserves.

Closer to the truth is much more prosaic answer: investments in Russian debt best largest U.S. portfolio investors, and the Finance Ministry have heard them. But it’s not as easy as it seems: it is not lobbying, the answer of the Ministry of Finance officially confirmed that sanctions are contrary to economic interests, and it is impossible to ignore.

Have considered a hitch and the other side. Overseas anti-Russian sanctions became the subject of acute political struggle. No, not between Russophobes and Russophiles (the last one in Washington has long been extinct, but recently their mirages flashed to those interested observers from Moscow who wanted to see them), and between the Executive and legislative authorities. “Kremlin report”, the new financial sanctions — all the requirements of the law, redistributes powers in the sanctions policy towards Russia from the Administration of the President to the Congress. In August 2017, Donald trump was forced to sign it, because support for the law in Congress, and the Senate was so overwhelming that the President’s veto would be immediately with a new scandal overcome. But the fight is not over.

And the answer of the Ministry of Finance, and a particular kind of “Kremlin report” can be considered a mirror of this struggle. Its intermediate result is similar to “running fool”, as once said Arkady Raikin. In the sense that the requirement of law is complied with, and even exceeding, but is hard work yet ended in nothing.

There are other good news. The emergence of a “Kremlin report” manufacturers wanted to coincide with the elections of the Russian President. In the election itself he, however, obviously not affected, but after the March expression of will by the government in accordance with the Russian Constitution will be updated. Might be some changes in the Kremlin administration. Of course, the distribution of portfolios “Kremlin report” not be counted it may not be. But the inconsistencies of the names and positions in this list are bound to occur. In other words, only a few months it will become obsolete, the manufacturers of sanctions will be a new job, and what it will bring is the big question.

Another piece of good news. Almost simultaneously with the publication of “Kremlin report”, which, recall, was announced in advance in the United States, the operator of the project “Northern stream-2” has announced that it received a construction permit in German territorial waters the marine part of the pipeline. “This resolution is an important step in the complex process of obtaining permits for this project” — this is the review of the company-operator Nord Stream 2. And this despite the fact that the existing package is a real American sanctions targeted aimed, in particular, against the “Nord stream-2”.

Of course, the authors of “Kremlin report” as the report of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian debt and sanctions, are aware that so easy to pull the nose of the Congress will not succeed. The emphasis is on the practical part, “the Kremlin list”, i.e. a war of nerves has already been announced, it could be a new round of war of personal sanctions. But there is a hitch.

Can it be used in the interests of Russia? Necessary!

First, the anti-Russian sanctions has divided the American establishment. And fight regarding sanctions between the Executive and legislative branches of government already in Russia’s favor. Think of the forecast-the dream of the grandfather Shchukar of Sholokhov’s “virgin soil upturned”: “was Formed in the Soviet government two wings — right and left. So, maybe she will act on those wings and fly from us to edrene hair dryer?”This forecast is far not at once, but still realized with regard to the Soviet government, why he does not realize with regard to the us sanctions?

Second conclusion. What should be the Russian response? Now more than ever it is important not to swing counter threats that will inevitably hit Russia, and to insist on opportunities to break the deadlock. In the end, if China and India — our strategic allies, then why not only wait for support from them, but something they have to learn? After the events in Tiananmen square in 1989, the US announced sanctions to China, the nuclear program of India also brought her under sanctions. What was the response of these countries? The priority was the policy the development and liberalization of the economy, not the rate on the ideology of a besieged fortress. The results paid off: China has the second largest economy in the world, and India this year, according to forecasts, may overtake China in economic growth. This experience should be used in Russia.

Alternative confrontational, contractionary course futile: resources of our country are incomparably inferior to the resources of the USA and the West in General. To ignore it is unacceptable.

The main response to the sanctions, thus, is not a rejection of someone else’s tomatoes, cheeses, say, or from the payment of debts to those who will extend anti-Russian sanctions. An increase in the negative baggage is not an option. It is necessary to focus on achieving positive results in the economy and foreign policy. Positive, recognized not only by Moscow commentators, and the international community.

Third conclusion. Washington talked a lot about the involvement of Russian secret services in the American elections that paved the way for the preparation of new sanctions. In this sense, the absence of new sanctions would be fully consistent with the recognition of any significant Russian interference in the election of the American President.

March 18 will be the election of the Russian President, to whom is dedicated the “Kremlin report”. If so much associated with the sanctions revolve around elections, why not put the task away in the new Russian political cycle with the sanctions? Without active steps from both sides will not solve the problem. So, before the election, you may want to take a break and not to succumb to provocations. In order to develop new initiatives, able to specify the sanctions path “to edrene hair dryer”, which is post-election and begin a new countdown.

Sanctions. Chronicle of events

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