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Monday, February 12, 2018

The compromise Russia and the United States: Kyiv will be deprived of funding and introduce peacekeepers

The Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov said that on January 26 in Dubai, the special envoy of the US state Department in Ukraine Kurt Volker gave him “quite a realistic plan” for placement of the UN peacekeeping mission in the Donbas. The next day after that, the President of the United States Donald trump refused to meet with the head of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko and the Ukrainian media said that the IMF has run out of patience and soon the country will lose sovereignty.

photo: AP

Despite the fact that on the eve of the meeting in Dubai, the press Secretary of the President of Russia, Dmitry Peskov, urged all not to expect any miracles, it seems, happened. First, Surkov said that Moscow and Washington completely agree on the assessment of the humanitarian problems of the Donbas and the ways of their resolution. In addition, the Americans are adequately accepted the concerns of the Kremlin by the law on the reintegration of Donetsk and Lugansk. Secondly, the Americans, according to the representative of the Kremlin, suggested that it is implemented the plan of the UN peacekeeping mission in Eastern Ukraine. In this case, Surkov emphasized that it is based on the Russian proposals, including the need for the deployment of “blue helmets” with the parallel implementation of the Minsk agreements.

Meanwhile, a breakthrough in Russian-American negotiations took place against the background of the refusal of the President of the United States to meet in Davos with his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko. Instead, he held talks with the President of Rwanda and head of the African Union and Paul Kagame, citing lack of time, flew to Washington.

In addition, the Ukrainian media reported that on January 24 the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, Poroshenko said that if Kiev does not soon create an anti-corruption court, the program of crediting of Ukraine will be frozen. While judges in the new structure will be to appoint foreign donors of Ukraine. Lagarde stressed that the game ended in a compromise no one will look. Since Poroshenko has no other source of Finance of Ukraine, he was forced to accept, the sources said the Ukrainian media, although it considers that this will lead to the loss of sovereignty.

Will it unite Russia and the West, their efforts to put pressure on Ukraine, “MK” has found out from experts:

Denis DENISOV, Director of the Institute for peace initiatives and conflict resolution:

— Obviously, the President of the United States, for all its ambiguity, does not leave attempts to achieve the normalization of relations with Russia. While the current Ukrainian authorities have disappointed the US, in particular they refuse to create effective mechanisms to combat corruption and to undertake real steps on resolution of the conflict in the Donbas. If the official Kiev continues to ignore the demands of the West, he is apt to lose its support, including financial.

In parallel, the negotiations in Dubai appeared first concrete plan for the deployment of “blue helmets” in the Donbass, which now need to be worked out at the expert level. Special attention deserves the position of USA concerning the regularity requirements on the introduction of a phased plan of deployment of the UN mission in parallel with the implementation of the political provisions of the Minsk agreements. The parties declared the possibility of a compromise, and they have the political will needed to achieve a positive outcome. Even if Ukraine is against that decision that comes to Moscow and Washington, it still won’t be able to refuse to execute it, as it is completely dependent on the West.

Andrew BUZAROV, a member of the public Council under the MFA of Ukraine:

— American plan for the deployment of peacekeepers in the Donbas has not been seen, so it is impossible to tell who in reality agreed to do the assignment. Probably, thus Moscow wants to convince Poroshenko not to sign the law on the reintegration of Donbass, where Russia is assigned the status of the country-occupier. However, whatever concessions she went, sooner or later, the document will still take effect. Moreover, the United States and the European Union knew about the draft legislation on reintegration of Donbass and not tried to prevent it.

However, even when the law is signed by the President, with all its disadvantages, the head of state will be able one his order to withdraw all armed forces from the line of contact with the DNI and LC. Any who do not obey him, will be outlawed. So the signature Poroshenko will not mean the end of the negotiation process.

However, I don’t think Surkov and Walker will be able to achieve some real progress in the implementation of the Minsk agreements in their meetings. However, in their power to complete the exchange of prisoners in the Donbass, to restore mobile communications to the DNR and so on. On the humanitarian sphere, they will not move.

Ukrainian crisis. Chronicle of events

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