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Friday, February 16, 2018

Reboot Ukraine: Tymoshenko next President

A poll by the Ukrainian sociological service of the Razumkov Center showed that if presidential elections took place on the Square in late December, the head of the Republic would be Yulia Tymoshenko. For it would give their votes 12.1% of voters. Current President Petro Poroshenko would have gained only 10.2% of the vote. Meanwhile, presidential elections of Ukraine will be held very soon in 2019. That will change over time, and what will happen to the country under the rule of Tymoshenko, “MK” has found out from the experts.

Photo: facebook.comYulia Tymoshenko.

The poll was conducted from 15 to 19 December 2017, that is, before the Ukrainians have learned that Poroshenko is on a false passport he went to celebrate the New year in the Maldives, spending 500 thousand dollars, in 2007, promised the FSB of Russia in any case not to harm Moscow, if only it allowed in Saint-Petersburg, and already in 2013-2014, his team helped Viktor Yanukovych to withdraw from Ukraine’s budget of 1.5 billion dollars. Despite the fact that, according to sociologists, the error of their studies is not more than 2,3%, it is clear that facts are not the best way affected the reputation of the “President of peace” and “chocolate maker” part-time.

What happens if information attacks will follow Poroshenko before the elections, “MK” learned from the experts.

Kirill MOLCHANOV, Deputy head of the Ukrainian Institute of policy analysis and management:

– Ukrainian society does not trust neither their politicians nor the institutions of state power. That is why all the opinion polls, the leaders of the rating are harvested not more than 10-11% of the vote. However, despite all the manipulation, support for Tymoshenko is the current trend. She and her party “Batkivshchyna”, though with a small margin but will take a leading position in all upcoming elections.

On the other hand, even if against Poroshenko entire 2018 will throw dirt, its rating will not fall below 5%. In Ukraine there is a part of the electorate that will always vote for the current government. In practice, this already showed Viktor Yushchenko, who in 2010 scored 5,75% of the votes. With regard to the scandalous stories associated with Poroshenko, that they do not need to ward off from his constituents, and to make it clear to the President of Ukraine — the West will not put on it during the next election.

However, if the President of Ukraine will Tymoshenko, to expect some drastic changes in the country and not worth it. She is not a politician’s so-called “new generation”, on the contrary, she is a typical reactionary. All your abilities Tymoshenko have already shown in the post of Prime Minister of Ukraine. This is not to exclude that its victory in the elections will help to restart the situation in the Donbass. A change of leadership can revive the negotiations.

Vladimir ZHARIKHIN, Deputy head of the Institute of CIS countries:

Sociological research, conducted a year before the election, are rather conditional. Besides the statistical margin of error was 2.3%, which can reduce the gap Tymoshenko from Poroshenko to a minimum. The current President can easily overcome this gap using administrative resource.

However, I would not write off the leader of the “Opposition bloc” Yuriy Boyko (according to the poll, he scored 5.2% of the votes. – “MK”). South-East of Ukraine is still supporting politicians like him. Although this part of the country has declined significantly after the departure of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, there still lives many people. It is possible that the survey could not identify the present position of these people, as the background of the war in the Donbas, they are afraid to talk about their moods. Answering the questions of the interviewers, the respondents could easily relate themselves to the undecided.

Don’t know in what form will the next presidential elections in Ukraine, but it will be serious for the country test. At least three candidates have similar chances of winning. However, if the President will Tymoshenko, Russia and the Donbass will not change anything. If Boyko wins and he decides to perform the Minsk agreement, with the filing of Ukrainian radicals war may break out not only in Donbas but also in other regions of the country.


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