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Friday, March 23, 2018

The political scientist Valery Solovey: at the election of the President will be a “dark horse”

The first stage of the qualifying competition potential presidential candidates behind: January 12 – last day of submission for nominees from political parties (independent candidates had to meet up to 7th inclusive). At today’s distance, there are 16 participants in the presidential race. How many of them have a chance to get to the finish line?

photo: Natalia Muslinkina

As of the moment, the desire to compete for the presidency of the CEC was notified by 69 “the extension of the subject” – 23 candidates from 46 parties and independent candidates. That was until two men, the leader of LDPR Vladimir Zhirinovsky and the nominee of the Communist party Pavel Grudinin. Their temporary lead in the race due to the fact that according to the law on presidential elections candidates nominated by parliamentary parties are spared from having to submit signatures of citizens in his support.

Another 14 candidates that passed the “pre-filter”, collected autographs. Recall that independent candidates must present 300 thousand strokes, candidates from non-parliamentary parties – to 100 thousand. (Today, in Putin’s staff, announced that the signatures he has already collected more than 400 thousand).

Among keep at a distance “neokantian” only two independent candidates: the CEC has registered group of voters established in support of the nomination of Vladimir Putin and the Deputy of Kostroma regional Duma Vladimir Mikhailov.

The rest – the representatives of the parties: Ksenia Sobchak (the party “Civil initiative”), Grigory Yavlinsky (Yabloko), Boris Titov (“Party of Growth”), Maxim suraykin “the Communist party Communists of Russia”, Sergey Baburin (“Russian national Union”), Catherine Gordon (“the Party “Good deeds”), Natalia Lisitsyna (“Russian United Labour Front”), Roman Khudyakov (party “HONEST” Man. Justice. Responsibility/”, Stanislav Polishchuk (“Party of Social Reform – the income from natural resources to the People”), Elvira Agurbash (“green Alliance”), Bakov (the”Monarchist party”), Mikhail Kozlov “Party of social protection”.

Theoretically this list can be updated. For example, representatives of four parties have notified the CEC about the intent to hold conventions to nominate their candidates at the very end of the “emergency” stage – January 11-12. But in any case the increase will be negligible.

Nevertheless, already now we can say that compared to the last presidential campaign the number of applicants who have passed the “candidate minimum”, has grown significantly. Then the first barrier 10 candidates.

However, independents among them were more – five. Namely Mikhail Prokhorov, Svetlana Peunova, Dmitry Mezentsev, Rinat Khamiev, Viktor Cherepkov. However, the ballot contains only one – Prokhorov. The other “lost” on the signatures. To overcome the signature barrier was much more difficult then than today: according to the former version of the law on presidential elections independent candidates and non-parliamentary party members had to “issue on the mountain” 2 million autographs.

For the same reason, by the way, was withdrawn from the race and the candidate from “Yabloko” Grigory Yavlinsky: the CEC declared invalid more than a quarter of the submitted signatures. Permissible marriage according to the law, and this provision has remained unchanged – not more than 5 percent. In fact, Prokhorov – one of the participants of the campaign were collecting signatures who managed to register. The other four of the five admitted to the elections candidates were nominated by parties represented in the Duma: Vladimir Putin (United Russia), Gennady Zyuganov (CPRF), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (LDPR), Sergey Mironov (“Fair Russia”).

How many of the race participants reach the finish line this time? According to political scientist Valery Solovey, referring to its sources in government circles, the ballot paper will consist of seven families: “Six we know. This, of course, Putin, Zhirinovsky, Grudinin, Sobchak, Titov, Grigory Yavlinsky. But will have a seventh. Who exactly, I don’t know.

To these six, who had the best chance to check-in, decided to add some dark horse.”

Almost the same scenario predicts and President of the Center for political technologies Igor Bunin: “will Putin, Zhirinovsky, Grudin, Yavlinsky, Sobchak, is likely to remain Titov. And maybe someone else. And that’s all.”

Why seven? “Perhaps the magic of numbers” – suggests Valery Solovey. However, you can find logical reasons. From the point of view of the interests of the authorities the participants “final race” should be sufficiently representative. However, the Bulletin should not be too long. “The situation must be predictable, says the Nightingale. – And where a lot of candidates, increasing the risks. Primarily behavioral. After all registered candidates will be eligible to appear on television. You never know what someone will say! And the desire of Vladimir Putin is that the campaign should be calm, pass without incident, without information releases. Modestly, but with dignity. And those who can behave immodestly and unworthy, will be cut off”

Selection of candidates is dictated by the “not so much an objective, many subjective circumstances,” affirms Igor Bunin. The expert does not “see” how people outside the announced they are unable to collect the required signatures and register. But for the named candidates can be calm: the power, according to the expert, is interested in them, and therefore “all of them, of course, will pass away.”

It’s hard to say how forecasts correspond to the Russian legislation. But with our political practice these theories, one must admit, more than friendly. To change it is much more difficult than to soften the law on presidential elections.

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