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Friday, February 16, 2018

Merkel promise special election: Germany will face a difficult year

On January 7, in Germany the planned start of negotiations between the conservatives (CDU/CSU) and Social democratic party (SPD). This meeting, which should last until 12 January, may be the first step towards creating a governing coalition. However, the process will take months, while Germany will rule a “technical” government headed by Angela Merkel. If the three parties fail to agree, Germany is waiting for either a minority government or new elections.

German business and the European Union were waiting, while the young and energetic President of France Emmanuel macron aims to intercept Merkel’s initiative in the EU.

photo: Natalia Gubernatorova

Scheduled for January talks can be considered preliminary. Participants will discuss 15 sets of questions. 21 Jan should be an extraordinary Congress of the SPD, which will discuss the results of the “probing” of the negotiations and the feasibility of the transition to the real formation of the coalition. In the case of a positive decision of the party begins to negotiate the coalition agreement and allocate Ministerial portfolios and it will take at least two months. While the social Democrats have ruled that this Treaty must be approved by all members of the party. We can only guess how much time it will take. So the most optimistic projections, the new government in Germany will only appear in the spring.

But if the party leaders of the social Democrats in January will come to the conclusion that the “block” party, the CDU makes no sense, Angela Merkel will have to choose: either to be at the head of a minority government, or call for a special election.

Since the end of the Second world war, Germany was not a minority government, and Merkel herself skeptical of such a scenario. However, the option of re-election, she considers futile, stressing that they lead to the same results.

In such circumstances, the social Democrats may be able to “bargain” with conservatives more privileges. Earlier, the leader of the SPD, Martin Schulz refused to negotiate with his rival for the elections. His party held on 24 September elections had worsened its result, with only 20.5% of the votes.

Glasses left at that, not got the conservatives (CDU/CSU scored 32,9% of the votes), and ultraprivate populist movement “Alternative for Germany”. It appeared on the political scene relatively recently and skillfully played on the seeming inevitability of the German elections. The party won 12.6% of the votes and entered the Bundestag, although the real impact on decisions in the country it is to be able to: all the other political forces refused to form a coalition with her.

The leaders of the social Democrats decided that they played Association with the ruling party: if the CDU and the SPD are in the same boat the first year, than they then differ from each other? The social Democrats stopped to look in the eyes of voter opposition and lost points. And that doesn’t happen again in the next election, Martin Schulz led his party in opposition to the ruling bloc.

Merkel then turned to other possible allies — the “green” and Free democratic party. Potential coalition dubbed “Jamaica” because the colors affiliated parties corresponded to the colors of the flag of this Caribbean country. But she was not destined to take place: talks between the three movements failed. Merkel left the other options besides cooperation with the Social democratic party.

To the formation of a government of all parties (primarily the SPD) urged President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who himself comes from social Democrats. And Schultz decided to obey, but about the success of the negotiations do not promise. Meanwhile, in Germany, was raised a “record”. Never in the history of the country did not pass so much time between the parliamentary elections and the formation of a ruling coalition. And record this every day it becomes more and more difficult to beat.

“Today, all scenarios are equally probable, noted in comments to “MK” head of the Center for German studies Institute of Europe RAS Vladislav Belov. — The worst case scenario is, of course, early elections. This process will take at least another six months. An interim version of effectiveness is a minority government. The most desirable option — a Grand coalition.

In any case, for a few months in Germany seems poised to maintain the “technical government”. The function of the Bundestag is limited, but he continues to act in accordance with the law, all ministries are working, the budget is there. That is, the political crisis in my view, no. There is a political hitch. It is difficult to say how long this setback. Theoretically, the negotiations can go on for four years. The Constitution allows it.

On the German economy such a provision has little effect. Business, of course, is formed by the government, the decisions on tax policy, the future public investment. But without it the situation in the economy and labour market are so good that any negative impact is not expected”.

Meanwhile, the question arises as to whether political difficulties in Germany a power vacuum in the EU? After all these years, Germany was considered the main heavyweight of the Union and in many respects with its filing decisions were made.

“Not to say that Angela Merkel has a problem. She has a specific task, and she knows how to solve them. Germany is present at all the meetings of the European Union, in the Normandy format, and together with France remains its informal leader. Of course, there are some limitations, but do not assume that Emmanuel macron took the place of Merkel, and Germany was behind the composition,” — says Vladislav Belov.

Young and energetic leader of France in recent years really attracts a lot of attention. In this situation, Germany can only maintain their current functions in the EU, but may not offer the reform of this structure, which, in the opinion of many, long overdue. In September, macron suggested a tax reform of the EU, the creation of a common army and military doctrine, strengthening of integration in education.

These ideas were met with approval in Germany, but analysts say that in the current environment to implement them will be difficult. The macron lacks political experience, and his country was at all desire can not compete in economic power and influence with Germany. And while the policy of Germany is in limbo, the EU also froze in anticipation.


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