Experts of the American strategic research center RAND believe that in the event of armed conflict with equal or almost equal to rival Russia will avoid a General engagement, and in General – to strive for as quickly as possible to finish this war.
photo: Gennady Cherkasov
In a paper published online RAND 15-page report in 2017 on the new capabilities of the armed forces and their likely behavior in a global military conflict, analysts say, in their opinion, the strengths and weaknesses of Russia.
According to the authors of the study, emphasis will be placed on the protection of important industrial and population centers with multi-layered, integrated air defense and multiple fortified areas. Noted Russia’s desire to create a kind of “buffer” space around its borders, to gain time in case of a potential strike.
Decisive direct clash with equal force to rival Russia will avoid, believe American experts. “Given the weakness of the non-nuclear armed forces in the long standoff with equal or almost equal adversary, Russia will try to use the strategy of indirect actions and asymmetric responses to different dimensions of warfare with the aim to win back the likely imbalance”, – said in the text of the report.
The main advantage of Russia in this conflict, tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, recognized in the United States. However, if Moscow uses it in response to non-nuclear attack, this “threatens to undermine the control of the ruling regime over the state,” predicts RAND.
Held in the Russian armed forces reform has increased the number of units ready to participate in short transactions, analysts say. They note some of the Soviet and Russian operation designed to surprise and a quick goal. RAND believes that this tactic is still some time will be relevant for the Russian army. It is noted the limitations of Russian facilities for accurate non-nuclear strike on key targets possible opponent.
In General, speaking about the prospects of a global conflict involving Russia, RAND analysts note that the Russian authorities do not tend to the real clash with an equal force of the enemy. Also, from their point of view, there is no indication that the US, China, or any country in Europe getting ready to strike at Russia with its nuclear weapons.
“Nevertheless, it is a possible conflict due to any misunderstanding or change of leadership in one of the countries listed on the leaderboard, more aggressive or risk-averse,” – said in the report.
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