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Saturday, January 20, 2018

The secret enemy of Putin: the President may lose the election already won


Big politics is, as you know, the same theater. And if the viewer of this “theater” feels the need for example of Stanislavsky to shout “ no way!”, in this “temple of art” it is necessary to change something. I’m not exaggerating the significance of their personal experiences. But at a time when Putin last week announced his candidacy for President, I have the need to shout “ no way!” clearly appeared.


photo: kremlin.ru

Yes, the event in Nizhny Novgorod was held by all the rules of the political drama. But it lacked some of the “peppercorns”, that makes the fact that breaking through the knee the usual course of the political process.

This Monday, when GDP unexpectedly arrived in Syria and announced the withdrawal of our troops from that country, such “pepper”, of course, appeared. But to talk about the emotional turning point in Putin’s election campaign, in my opinion, is still not necessary.

Quoting an official statement of the Kremlin about the conversation of the GDP with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad March 14, 2016: “the Russian President stated that the principal tasks that were set before the armed forces of Russia in Syria is resolved. Agreed to withdraw the main part of the aviation group of the Russian space forces”.

Now citigrou by TASS Putin’s statement of 8 December 2017: “I made the decision: a significant part of the Russian military contingent in the Syrian Arab Republic, vozvrashaetsja home, in Russia… the homeland is waiting for you, friends!”

I do not want to downplay the significance of this, of course, is very important of Putin’s statements. I’m not going to sneer about the difference between “a major part of aviation group” and “a significant part of the military contingent.” I’m not going to point out that, “ a small part” of our troops remain in Syria for permanent deployment, and a large part of it, as the words of GDP, maybe more in this country to return: “If the terrorists will again raise the head, then we will inflict on them such attacks, which they still have not seen”. My intent is not to catch Putin in the conflict. My thesis is different: serious, long, meaningful, and not necessarily a pleasant conversation with the country of the candidate in presidents of the Russian Federation Putin has not yet happened.

Maybe Putin is the kind of conversation you don’t need? Many political analysts believe that even if GDP in General will not conduct any election campaign, he will still win the election. Will win because of inertia, because of the lack of any attractive alternative, because of nezastroennoe Russian society to “change horses in midstream” due to the political-administrative resources of the Russian authorities, finally.

However, the current Putin situation isn’t one where the “best is the enemy of good”. If GDP will agree to settle for just “good” – the very fact of his election victory – that politically he will lose. Politically, Putin can win only if you to target the “best” – to restart the current system of power in Russia.

How to restart the system if it core still remains the same “main element”? The problem with Putin is tough, I admit it. The novelty effect is not a feeling that can be stretched for a quarter of a century. Putin – the politician to whom the Russians a long time and become used to. The politician, from whom no one expects something radically new. On the one hand, the GDP, this situation is beneficial. As mentioned above, inertia is one of the most loyal and reliable “political allies” of the current President. But at the same time inertia is the most terrible and insidious political enemy of Putin.

There are times when society genuinely does not want anything to change in yourself. Like, why try to improve something, if everything is so wonderful? However, the current Russian reality, it is impossible to describe using the word “wonderful.” The main characteristic of the moment in our country – the lack of pace of development. The West failed to bring Russia to its knees, even using all available mechanisms for applying sanctions pressure. We hold, and it’s very good. But what is bad in society, there is a sense of neprosmatrivaemye future. Until 2014, all felt that, despite numerous hardships and obstacles, Russia develops, Russia is moving forward. Now is the sensation of movement disappeared. It was replaced by suspicion: even straining all their resources, the country was able to hold the conquered positions.

But the rest of the world at this time does not stand still! Global economic and technological competition is now so intense, the lack of forward movement means moving back. It is clear that Putin is not able to simultaneously change this state of Affairs during the election campaign. But in this period, GDP can and should do more – to do something which seems very simple, even basic, but in reality is extremely complex. Putin, from my point of view, is obliged to give Russian citizens a convincing answer to the question why they should elect him their President for the fourth time?

With all the richness of policy options for its attitude toward authority are clearly divided into two categories. One power is needed for the sake of power, in order to use its benefits. Others – in order to do something, to change something for the better in their country. I have experience of many years of conversations with close associates of GDP. And so I do not have the slightest doubt that Putin sincerely believes himself to be a politician of this second category, politician, pushing Russia on the right path of development. For while I don’t have a clear understanding of: how GDP is going to achieve this task during its final prezidentskogo time? What specific goals it sets itself on these six years? And that he intends to take to achieve them?

Of course, Putin cannot and should not disclose all its political cards. But the President has no moral right to keep the public in a state of ignorance. And the best moment for such “the mist” is the period of the election campaign. In these December days is appropriate to recall the folk omen: how will you celebrate the New year, so you will spend it. GDP, from my point of view, you should treat the election campaign as it stretched in time “New year celebration”. If this “celebration” is faded and vnutrenne meaningless, so is he “New year” – the next presidential term of Putin.

And when I use the word “faded”, I don’t mean that the country needs a “Shine“ political technologies. The country does not need the “pretty wrapper”, and fresh, high-quality “product” inside the wrapper. The country needs to “major candidate” for the presidency opened up and laid out during the election campaign one hundred percent. The country needs to make its current and future leader shared with her my plans, “infected” her with his “sense of purpose”. Of course, as mentioned in the beginning of this editorial, Putin could not do anything of the above. He can afford the political luxury to treat the election campaign as an annoying hindrance, as something that distracts him from really important Affairs of the state.

But the political price that GDP will have to pay if he takes that position, will be huge. I already wrote that in the Kremlin to believe that after the presidential elections in Russia will start the political struggle for the interpretation of their results. To win in this struggle, one whose explanation of the real meaning of inevitable Putin’s official victory will be perceived by society as the most convincing.

I want to amend this political theory: due to the inevitability of the transformation of Vladimir in four of the Russian President, the political battle over the interpretation of the results of the upcoming presidential elections in full swing now. And, in my opinion, Putin in this fight at least not wins. While the most dangerous insidious “enemy of Putin” on behalf of “political inertia” feels very, very bad. If I were in place of GDP, I’d be very alarmed by this circumstance.

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