Before the presidential election is three months. The statement of Vladimir Putin re-nominated EA as head of state commented on the “MK” the Deputy Director of the Institute for strategic studies and projections at the PFUR Nikita DANYK.
– Nikita, how, in your view, impact on the outcome of the presidential election-2018 economic and foreign policy difficulties for our country that led to the drop in the standard of living of Russians?
– Yes, there are objective socio-economic difficulties in Russia, including because of internal problems, still not solved. There are foreign policy challenges that also influence the situation in our country. However, despite the difficulties experienced by Russia of the period, I am sure the level of support for Vladimir Putin, the Russians in the elections of 2018 will only increase. If the results of the last election, he won about 63% of the vote, I think that in 2018 this figure will be about 70%.
– Why are you so sure?
– In the previous term of Putin have been developments of historic proportions. First of all, the return of the Crimea to Russia, which, incidentally, allowed us to consolidate our society: the Crimean consensus among Russians was 86%, although this figure declined. The second historic event — the settlement of the situation in Syria and the defeat there of the gangs of ISIS (an organization banned in Russia). And primarily – as a safety factor in our country. Yes, pursuing an independent foreign policy, we faced severe pressure from the West. But let’s not forget that it allowed us to step up structural reforms in the country. And, above all, to stimulate the development of private industry and business as a result of the sanctions regime. And, all this has already yielded some positive results. As for the losses, even Alexei Kudrin, is not an active supporter of this course, recognizes that Russia ultimately lost no more than 0.5-1% of GDP. In addition, Putin is the only political figure able now to consolidate Russian society, including the business elite. All of this together allows me to assume that Putin will win the election with approximately 70% of the votes, and, with a higher turnout than in past elections.
– What else will differ in the upcoming elections?
– The situation is radically different. Those elections took place against the backdrop of the protests. Now it is impossible, because we can all see that this is only spin-doctoring, and what they bring, demonstrated by Ukraine. So in terms of the possibility of a repetition “of the marsh performances” Putin is in a safe position. But there is another obvious danger. Our Western comrades began to work not through opposition, but through the Russian oligarchs, and to the election they might try to put through them a blow to the President by undermining the credibility and the institutions of government in General. For example, through the hints of his involvement in corruption schemes. Well, the Russians will say that they say in the West, all are good, and the problem arose solely because of Putin. It will not be — will not be problems in our relationship. In all other respects, the elections would be peaceful.
– Change whether the Putin government?
– The probability of change of government is extremely high. Barometer — the status of the implementation of the may decree of the President of 2011-2012. And she’s not just lame, but is clearly unsatisfactory: performance does not exceed 35%. It is a failure! It is noteworthy that for Russians, Putin is not associated with the reforms implemented in our country. But the question of trust in government is a cornerstone. And in this respect it is impossible to talk about success, comparable to Crimea or Syria.
– Why do you think Putin is so long announced his decision to go to the polls?
– This is due to his extensive political experience! He knew that as soon as it was announced, the state apparatus will not work on the solution of tasks and to preserve their posts and privileges. So he was not too late to join in the situation of the off-season and paralysis of the institutions.
Read the material: Sands estimated the chances of Putin’s victory in the upcoming elections
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