The situation around the possible US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran becomes more tense. President trump, regularly accused Tehran of violating the terms of the agreement, decided on 13 October to speak before the us Congress with the appeal on this issue. After this, as expected, members of Congress can take the decision to abandon the contract and, as a consequence of the resumption of sanctions pressure on Iran. Can it take a rupture of the agreement on the part of Washington? And how dangerous is this scenario? This “MK” talked with an expert.
Photo: Matt H. Wade.
As you know, the current occupant of the White house repeatedly sharply spoke about the SVPD (a Joint comprehensive plan of action – the agreement on the Iranian nuclear programme, concluded on 15 July 2015), signed by his predecessor Barack Obama. Trump called the deal a shameful, terrible, and immediately after taking office, President nedvosmisleno hinted at the possibility of breaking the agreement.
However, the other countries involved in the negotiation process and the signing of the AGREEMENT (and it is Russia, China, Germany, France and Britain), the position of the American leader did not find understanding. According to experts, the fact that serious support trump, no, you can negate the efforts of the President of the United States.
“In my opinion, it is unlikely that Washington is really out of the nuclear deal, said in an interview with “MK” leading researcher, Institute of Oriental studies Vladimir SAZHIN. – Of course, trump will remain tough anti-Iran rhetoric, accusations of Tehran’s compliance with AGREEMENT. But unlikely to be taken some real steps. Moreover, the last word is not with trump. There is still Congress which has 60 days for a decision. USA waiver AGREEMENT it is unprofitable. All parties to the agreement are in favour of it, and even those countries that was not directly involved in the transaction to also support it. Moreover, a significant portion of these States is interested in developing economic relations with Iran, which received new impetus after the lifting of sanctions. We’re not talking about a bilateral agreement between Washington and Tehran. This international agreement, confirmed by UN security Council resolution. In the case of the refusal of the United States will be in the position of a political pariah – this step will support only Israel and Saudi Arabia, but this is a special case. Even in American political circles have enough people. Which at the time opposed the deal with Iran, but now I think leaving a big mistake”.
If, however, the US withdrawal from the agreement, it will be a serious impact on the internal situation in Iran, said the expert. “Now there is an acute struggle between relatively liberal and reformist President Rouhani and his political and economic opponents, reminded Vladimir Sazhin. – Among them are, first and foremost, the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps (IRGC), politicians, centred around the ex-President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the radical clerics. Special attention should be paid to the IRGC is an organization with not only military but also economic power. And, by the way, a period of the most rigid sanctions pressure on Iran, the financial structure of the Corps were able to establish ways to circumvent the restrictions, receiving illegally large amounts. Therefore, the IRGC, of course, was not interested in lifting sanctions. So the fight goes on, and it is active. If the U.S. withdraws from the Joint comprehensive plan of action, it would play into the hands of opponents of Rouhani, who has spent his career as a President is built on the conclusion of the transaction. Many in Iran maintain its course, but in the case of Washington’s refusal of the agreement, the opposition will immediately begin to play this card, proving that the trust Americans it is impossible. All this, ultimately, can lead to serious consequences, up to a smooth transition of power from the incumbent to its opponents”.
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