What would happen if the USA shot down over Russian territory Korean nuclear missile? Answers may be two or it will “bums”; and terrible: but nothing. However, experts have seriously discussed such a possibility. Relations between Russia and the United States resemble the period of the Cuban missile crisis. By the end of September a mutual altercation between Washington and Moscow escalated into outright threats and accusations, and on Friday broke all records for violent attacks. About what outcome is expected, and is there any recipes out of a difficult situation, “MK” asked the scientist, equally distant and equally close to Russia and the United States, President of the Washington-based Center on global interests Nikolai ZLOBIN.
Let’s start with the chronology of Friday’s attacks. General U.S. air force General Lori Robinson with a directness characteristic of the first female chief command of the nuclear defence of the USA, said that the Korean nuclear missile will be shoot down over Russia – “in the teeth of the Russian network of early warning”. Given the fact that in the US, Russia and North Korea are considered allies, this is a transparent allusion to the fact that we are a big price to pay for such an Alliance.
Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that relations between Russia and the United States are experiencing autumn aggravation due to “anomalies in the political space of the USA”. Loosely translated from the diplomatic language at home, it can be understood as “they’re all gone mad”.
And the Deputy foreign Minister on cooperation in combating terrorism Oleg Syromolotov said that the United States has ceased to behave as an ally in Syria. They openly or secretly support terrorist groups finances and weapons.
In the media, States, meanwhile, intensified campaign to demonize the actions of the Russian HQs in Syria, up to the justification and support of actions of terrorists “against the Russian”.
However, sane experts urge not to panic.
– I think that as long as there is a fierce swordplay – you can sleep relatively quiet. Before the real storm comes a lull, and now we see the period of the bluff. Bluffing all and from all sides. So nothing serious is being prepared. – said “MK” Nikolai ZLOBIN. – Yes, everyone is nervous, all twitch, but most likely is an attempt to exert psychological influence on the other side, and not a preparation for some real actions. In politics in General 90% is a bluff, and in international more. So I would not dramatize the situation, although it is quite heavy.
– Why do we need such a sharp bluff, which has been clearly mentioned a nuclear strike?
Want to absolve themselves of responsibility for any surprises. That’s just surprise — something to be afraid of. Take a computer “glitch”, which can all mislead. It is real, every day there is some fraction of a percent that someone’s computer can “hacknotes” will happen something bad. And in conditions when relations are extremely tense, normal communication no, there is no trust — quickly understand the error of electronics both parties will be difficult.
– The Russian political elite is rooting for trump before the election in the United States and was associated with hopes for improved relations between our countries, but only became worse. Why?
– There was something in US history, perhaps, has never happened before. American policy towards Russia has in its hands the Congress, wresting it from the President. Trump no longer shapes the agenda in this area. And the Congress today are even more anti-Russian than in Soviet times. Not accidentally, the Congress quietly passed a law on the enemies of the United States, in which Russia, Iran and North Korea are separated by commas. And when the Kremlin realized that a policy of communication with Moscow is determined not by trump, and the Congress, it turned out another unpleasant for Russia: we have historical relations with Congress no. Moscow never worked, never talked to Congress, limited the White house. As a result, today in Russia there are not only tools of pressure on members of Congress, but even communication channels for communication and coordination of positions. This hole we need to patch. While we do not do this, Congress will exclusively determine the direction of Russian-American relations.
– And the President of trump is not possible to regain the levers of influence?
– It is not very interesting. He has other problems with Congress is more important for him and for his presidency. Relations with Moscow, from his point of view, not worth to open another front against its own congressmen.
– What levers can be used Russia?
– There is parliamentary diplomacy. Our deputies and senators could meet with American colleagues as meet with European. But there is another problem. In order for this communication to be effective, you need to start with the increase of the authority of our legislative institutions. To our parliamentarians were perceived in the political arena not as a Supplement to the Putin administration, and as an independent variable. Real benefits could bring direct communication of the Russian governors with the us. But also provided, which I have already mentioned.
– Valdai on which the President of Russia and American experts, can affect the normalization of the dialogue with Russia and the United States?
– This year – definitely not. A breakthrough in relations should be well prepared for improvisation it does not. If we now start to work with Washington, the next Valdai may in this respect be more effective. Well, one of the Valday little. Should be a lot of sites, and not multilateral, and Russian-American that would not work from case to case, and with high regularity.