Held last Sunday parliamentary elections in the German Bundestag has started the long-delayed restructuring of the political space of Germany. Who is already 12 years as Chancellor Angela Merkel did everything possible to ensure that this reformatting happened, but not all of it was. The result is crumbling the carefully constructed frame of government, the supports of which for the last years was the Christian democratic Union (CDU) and Social democratic party of Germany (SPD). The last showed the worst result in the modern history of Germany.
With only a little more than 20 percent, the social Democrats in the face of your loser leader Martin Schulz said on the opposition. But it turned out to be not so simple due to the fact that the SPD actually depends on the stability of Merkel, which is absolutely not going to risk his power for the sake of saving face partners. Of course, the angel may choose the most real looking following the elections, the option of the Union, called the German people “Jamaica” on the colors of its constituent parties: the CDU black, yellow liberals, and, of course, “green.” However, in this case she will have to share — for example, the leader who returned after a 4 year break free Democrats Christian Lindner (who declared the need for rational relations with Russia) has long nurtured the idea of creating a “superminister the future”, which would unite the Ministry of economy, Finance, innovation and energy. As you know, Frau Merkel is willing to share anything, except the Ministry of Finance, and around it will start a serious fight. At the same time the party chief of the “green” CEM Ozdemir, applying for the post of foreign Minister, even though ethnic Turks, has repeatedly allowed themselves extremely hard-hitting remarks about how the Turkish President Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin. With such a man at the head of the German foreign policy, Berlin will not be able to build normal relations with any of its strategic partners, except the United States. Although, maybe this is the meaning.
Appetites of future coalition partners can be so serious, that to pacify them will have the most severe way — the threat of re-election. And Merkel would go on them if I didn’t realize that, unlike her own CDU, in the case of re-election of the former coalition partners — the social Democrats- could lose more votes, and probably even to give way to the second party “Alternative for Germany”. But it will be a powerful blow to the political system of Germany since 1949.
The official results of the elections (CDU — 33%, SPD — 20%, “Alternative for Germany” (ADH) — 13%, the liberals (FDP) — 10% left and “green” — 9%) say the following: in Germany, as elsewhere in Europe, and the polarization of society, the voices of voters moving from moderate politicians to more clearly articulating their goals. Boring European bureaucratic mediocrity, in which it is impossible to distinguish the conservative from the socialist (and boy — girls), all the more annoying to the Germans. Therefore, in almost all the länder of the former GDR, the SPD lost the second place “Alternative” or left. And in Saxony, for example, generally the skeptics of the ADG took first place for the first time in recent history, surpassing the Merkel’s party from the pedestal. We must pay tribute: in conditions of severe information pressure from major German media, “alternatives” were all able to work on the Internet and social networks. “We — party of Facebook.” — repeatedly heard from the mouths of their leaders, and, judging by the high even for the German elections turnout (over 75%), they were able to lead to elections before apolitical youth.
The vote showed that even 27 years after the unification of Germany remained insurmountable differences between Eastern and Western parts of the country. The feeling of unoriginality “Arista” (“Easterners”) and fairly firmly sits in the minds of East Germans. However, as a percentage, of course, the regions of the former GDR seriously lose the West: in North Rhine-Westphalia lives of voters are more than 6 lands in Eastern Germany. So confident third place “Alternatives” — likely a consequence of the recognition in the West than second place in the East. Another phenomenon characteristic of the spaces of the first GDR — voters sympathetic to the left and ADH simultaneously. Such German “red-brown”.
In these elections, the first serious German party fought for the Russian voter. Few people know that it was not the Turks, namely, the Russians are the largest national Diaspora in Germany. How so, you ask — and you’re right: at a nominal majority (7 million) of the German Turks don’t have German citizenship merely by residency. While the Russian Germans (3 million), almost all the polls have been certified. Thus, if all Russian Germany came to the polling stations in the Bundestag would seat up to 30 deputies elected by their votes. It is now clear: in the new convocation of the Parliament will be at least 5 Russian-speaking deputies. While most actively with the Russian worked the “Alternative for Germany”.
The new convocation of the Bundestag will not like the more interesting and scandalous previous. For the first time in Parliament it had been so many political forces (6), so we now have to think of something to factions — after all, under the dome of the Reichstag has fractional space only for four games. Due to the increase in the number of parties will increase and the number of deputies in the new Parliament: now there will be 709 630 is in the same cadence. According to the German Constitution the number of MPs varies depending on the turnout. 75 percent of voters came to cast their vote in the elections of 24 September, a record. Thus, the Bundestag will increase by 79 deputies.
94 the mandate given “the Alternative”, together with 69 seats left theoretically form a “Pro-Russian quarter” — because no matter how far apart these parties in matters of domestic policy, on foreign policy they largely have similar positions. This gives reason to hope for increased pressure on Merkel within Germany — as in the abolition of anti-Russian sanctions and for recognition of the Crimea and forced Poroshenko to implement the Minsk agreements.
As for the expected surprise of these elections — the victory of ADG, to me it looks very similar to the meteoric rise of the bloc “Rodina” in 2003, in which its leaders began to fight among themselves for power, you barely passed in the state Duma. By and large, then the further development of this power and set it to new heights is extremely complicated in the first place these internal contradictions. Now the repetition of story can be seen in the winning “Alternative for Germany”. At a press conference yesterday, the former leader Frauke Petry said that will not be included in the composition of the fraction will remain an independent MP, which caused sincere bewilderment of those present here colleagues. In my defense she said something on the subject of “right turn in 2021” and left in a hurry.
Such developments can be predicted, but certainly not with such speed. Now the party has remained one of the most recognizable leader Alexander Gauland, who will lead the faction. After all, most of the 94 deputies ADH unfamiliar not only a wide audience, but even to each other. Caught the tail of luck mostly young “alternatives” “from the earth” will now begin to explore the world of big politics, big money and the temptations. Similarly, on a huge German counter-elite in 2007, the Bundestag was composed of the left with the irresistible wagenknecht. Therefore, from the point of view of conservation of ADH as a unified force the sudden departure of Petri rather a plus than a minus, to avoid any future schisms.
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