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Saturday, March 17, 2018

Why the US war on Donbass

Yesterday’s speech by Poroshenko from the rostrum of the UN General Assembly has forced many to remember the infamous “if you want peace, prepare for war”. Only this can explain the strict boycott of Kiev, obviously, prepared in Washington, the Russian proposal on the introduction of the UN mission on the contact line in the Donbass.

photo: screenshot from video

After Vladimir Putin in early September made a proposal to introduce international UN troops to Donbass to ensure security of the OSCE observer mission, our Western allies openly taken aback. Foreign Minister of Germany, Sigmar Gabriel even supported this proposal. At some point, even the impression that the West is ready to agree to such a format of the peacekeeping mission. Moreover, some of this at the meeting in Minsk in the beginning of the month, said the Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov and the US special envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker. But then Washington and Kiev like clams. And just now delivered an angry philippic Poroshenko, in company with the Vice-President of the United States Penny even left the hall of the General Assembly at the time of performance of the Russian Minister of foreign Affairs.

These events make us again ask the question – can there be peace in the Donbas or sluggish permanent armed conflict will now be many years to fester near the South-Western borders of Russia?

On the one hand, Moscow certainly is not interested in the continuation of hostilities at their own borders, which require a degree of economic and technical support. On the contrary, it is increasingly possible to assume the existence of finding ways out of the current confrontational state of relations with Europe than the former commitment to tightening sanctions. Especially recently, many media wrote about the allegedly planned budget cuts “separate territories” (referring to the Donbass) for the period 2019-2020, However, Putin’s press Secretary Dmitry Peskov responded quickly, allowing the possibility of “transfers”, but not renunciation of Donbass in principle.

On the other hand, the change is recorded in Minsk the status quo – de facto recognition of the existence of the people’s Republic of Donbass from Ukraine, the OSCE and Europe is impossible without the observance of the Minsk agreements. And Poroshenko steadfastly refused to comply with these agreements, and no Angela Merkel can not (or will not) with him nothing in this regard is to do. However, there is little hope that after the upcoming parliamentary elections in Germany, Merkel will feel less confident and under the influence of public opinion will be forced more pressure on Poroshenko, forcing him to implement the Minsk agreement, in turn, is necessary for the lifting of sanctions with Russia. Over the past three years since the introduction of the sanctions, German business has lost tens of billions of euros and now wants to catch up – no wonder even the leader of the first unnoticed to be sympathetic to Moscow, party of free Democrats of Germany, Christian Lindner talked about it.

And here we come to the main issue. Why the U.S. blocked a Russian proposal for UN troops for the protection of the OSCE mission in Donbass? Obviously, Vladimir Putin’s proposal accommodation international mission of “blue helmets” based on the priority of work on the line of contact by OSCE observers, because they had to protect UN personnel. Kiev with the filing of Washington protested against this accommodation. The reasons here could be several. First, the presence of peacekeepers on the demarcation line the Ukrainian and the Russian people’s Republican forces would provide the opportunity for relative peace, which directly contradicted previous U.S. desire to maintain a constant tension in the region. Secondly, by the peacekeepers, the US would like to access uncontrolled areas and their infrastructure, including military nature. Thirdly, contrary to the signed in Minsk agreement Kiev puts it at the forefront of gaining access to the border with Russia in order to cut off the people’s Republic from a source external support and then quickly to strangle them, cleaning from the “separatists”. Thus, it is naive to hope that with the Russian resolution as drafted could support the Ukrainians with Americans. Because otherwise Russia will not be able to sculpt the aggressor. And so must the United States especially ahead of presidential elections in Russia.

The night scene with the OSCE observers, was nearly bitten by guard dogs border guards on the border of the Kherson region, shows who in fact should be protected. But it is a political issue. Therefore, neither the threats of the OSCE-schnick, no civilians in the Donbass, the head of which is now in its fourth year fall Ukrainian bombs are not for Washington reason to agree to the deployment of peacekeepers. In fact, who benefits?

The Ukrainian crisis. Chronicle of events

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