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Wednesday, March 21, 2018

The program of Putin 3.0: – nomination for the presidency, political reform, the resignation Medvedev

The main tradition of modern Russia is that after every presidential election, we Wake up in a new country, even if the President remains the same. It is therefore appropriate to look and the phrase “Putin, version 2.0” resulting from the filing of the Kremlin six years ago. Now is the time to expect a new version of Putin 3.0, it is known that on the upcoming elections the incumbent head of state will go with a new program of reforms. Monday from sources in the presidential Administration it became known that it will be reform: political, economic and judicial. About what they can be, “MK” asked the former Minister Andrei NECHAYEV and leading analyst Alexei MUKHIN. It was impossible to ignore the question of whether it remains at the head of the government, forced to face new challenges, Prime Minister Dmitry MEDVEDEV.

photo: kremlin.ru

Alexei MUKHIN, Director of the Center for political information:

– Developed various options for political reform, but they share one thing: the policy of drastic rejuvenation of the managerial personnel at both the Federal and regional level. This is seen in the example of the governors. (Add that many scientists claim that in six years Putin will choose a successor from among the current young appointees of the heads of subjects of Federation, – M. Z.).

As for structural political changes, carefully considered to enhance the role of the state Duma and the Federation Council in making strategic decisions, and — on the reform of the government. In particular, it is the merger of units of government and the President the benefit of the constitutional amendments such reform does not require. Frankly speaking, structural reform of the government causes me concern…

– How will it affect the role of the government, do not turn the Cabinet of Ministers in a Department of the presidential Administration?

In that and a problem that is not clear. Now it is clear that the President sets the tasks, and the government is responsible for their execution. A single unit will lead to a serious mix of styles and management models, and — to the confusion. If the unit of government will be dissolved in the office of the President, it becomes unclear who is to blame for problems and failures. And the elites of cognitive dissonance: it will be clear who’s the boss in the country? It seems to me that this part of the reform should be postponed until 2023, when the question arises about the successor.

In addition we should not forget that Russia continues to experience serious external pressure, and in such periods of major structural reforms in government, intelligence and civilian agencies unwanted and even contraindicated.

Among the possible reforms mentioned, the abolition or upgrading of the municipal filter in front of the Governor’s election…

This debate is very much alive, and in its course the expert community is split into two parts. Some say that the municipal filter should be retained, but modified, others insist on its abolition. The final decision will depend on how much the Federal government’s desire to increase the influence of parties in the electoral process. If the presidential Administration wants the party was not only influential, but also numerous, they should be given the opportunity to nominate candidates with a minimum of obstacles. The fact that otherwise to 1919, the majority was in Russia parties will end in death. In order to live, the party must participate in all Federal and regional campaigns. If for several cycles it may not nominate their candidates — it just automatically abolished by the Ministry of justice. That is, if the filter will remain the same, instead of rumors about the liberalization we see the second wave of cleaning “party lawn”. (System as in the second half of “zero” will be a seven-party or less – M. Z. – by the Way, the fact that Putin is planning to run for President, not party, and as an independent candidate, should bring the party bosses to sad thoughts).

Prime Minister Medvedev fits into the program of the upcoming Putin’s reforms, or may be expected resignation?

– According to my sources, before the may inauguration of the President is that the government will see the play. Although everything is possible if suddenly in the next few months will worsen the economic situation.

Andrei NECHAYEV, former economy Minister of Russia:

– Preparing economic reform. When Putin created several expert groups to develop new socio-economic program — it was clear that the reform is prepared under his new presidential term. And he and the authors have not concealed the need to correct economic course. The most well-known authors — a group of Alexei Kudrin, the group of Boris Titov and the Ministry of economy that is engaged in this duty. In different programs, describes the development of market institutions, the need for judicial reform, reduction of administrative corruption pressure on the business… that is – is about creating a favorable business climate. But there is one fundamental difference.

Titov proposes that the so-called controlled emission: print money and give them targeted at those projects that could become growth engines of the economy. And in order for all those to observe and respond to the establishment of the government a center of modernization.

Kudrin strongly against this issue.

While the President took note of these proposals and projects programs, but have not announced which option it more cute. Time for a decision he has, but reduced.

What I fear is that Putin will go the way of Gorbachev. Gorbachev at the time also had an alternative: the government programme of Ryzhkov and the market is “500 days”, which was done by Yavlinsky and Shatalin. But Gorbachev couldn’t make a choice, and as a man prone to compromise, and invited all to sit around the table and do a single program. In the end, to reconcile the irreconcilable failed. A program was written, but it was completely inapplicable, and all ended with the collapse of the Soviet economy.

To avoid unfortunate consequences, you need to clearly decide: either we go on the controlled emission of realizing that the level of nationalization of the economy is still high, or we’re going to develop market institutions. Different positions, to combine impossible, and then the President should determine to choose one or the other, to continue to follow that course, not to rush.

– Certain reforms can affect the fate of the government and cause the resignation of Medvedev?

– I am not sure that the resignation of the government in General will occur in the coming years. But if it happens before the elections. It will depend on how the situation will develop in the economy. While it gives modest, but still optimistic. This means that the positions of Medvedev are quite durable. It is clear that the government’s resignation is just a way to let off steam and “whoop” to blame the Cabinet in the face of crisis. It’s good PR and political move — but only when it is necessary. Putin does not like to part with their loyal staff, they had not so much, so unnecessarily, do not be. So I doubt that we will see a new Prime Minister.


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