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Saturday, January 20, 2018

“The state is losing the media battle for population growth”

Photo: Nikolay Gyngazov/Global Look Rgege next year minimum wage (the minimum wage) should be compared with the cost of living. The job has given Vladimir Putin. The state Duma has promised to enact as soon as possible. Thus, the minimum wage equal to the subsistence minimum for the first time, although it has declared in recent years. Will this help in the fight against poverty? Details…

  • The stock market opened higher
  • The ruble rose against the dollar and fell against Euro
  • The price of oil fell slightly

Go to a section…”Sevastopol should become the southern capital”Photo: Vasily Batanov/RIA “news”,”If you spend time on the constant scandals, public discussion, and to care in other planes other than work, then you have nothing useful happens” – said the newspaper VIEW, the newly elected Governor of Sevastopol Dmitry Ovsyannikov. In particular, he commented on the subject of previous disagreements with the team of his predecessor Alexey Chaly. Details…

  • Media: Guetta will become co-Chairman of the Central headquarters of the popular front
  • Media: the Extension of Putin’s presidency will happen in two stages
  • Erdogan has denied information about a secret meeting with Assad

Go to a section…”Local residents have been warned that it was going to Maclay Fourth”Photo: John Oxley Library, State Library of Queensland”Maclay they remember and love, for the North-Eastern part of New Guinea it is almost a national hero. It should be used”, – said the newspaper VIEW, descendant of the legendary Russian traveller, speaking of the purpose of a new expedition to the Papuans is a unique for the Russian science and public diplomacy. Details…

  • VC destroyed 180. in the area of Akerbat
  • The General staff announced the strengthening of the terrorist threat on the southern borders of the CIS
  • Moscow has recognized the new Ukrainian law on education

Go to a section…the United States remained a gap, a critically vulnerable to nuclear attackPhoto: Workman/WikipediaРассуждающие about the prospect of nuclear war between the US and the DPRK think in terms of a missile strike, the benefit is for the missiles, Pyongyang has bet. Meanwhile, it is obvious that such an attack is impossible. But it is theoretically possible the other is also nuclear and so devastating that America after he did not recover for a very long time. Details…

  • Clinton said the reasons “personal animosity” Putin to her
  • FT: Saudi Arabia plans to open PR center in Moscow
  • Saakashvili handed over the Protocol on violation of the Ukrainian border

Go to a section…”Arrow from Ivanteevka” was inspired by the American experiencePhoto: from the personal pages vk.com the alleged shooter”Ivanteevka is a very beautiful, prosperous city with good, proper social environment. We need to understand what pushed a young man to such actions,” – said the newspaper VIEW Duma Deputy from the Moscow region Sergei Zhigarev. A student opened fire in class, according to classmates, was different unsociable disposition, however, he did not hide his intentions, no one took the example. Details…

  • The activists of the SERB broke a memorial Board Nemtsov
  • Russian cities, a wave of telephone terrorism
  • The shooting happened in the area of three stations in Moscow

Go to a section…

Alexei Mukhin: regional elections in 2017. The results

It turned out that in Moscow the part of the opposition is still gaining a number of municipal mandates. “Apple” will even call it their victory. However, it became clear that Yabloko “took a bite” these mandates are not the “United Russia”.
Details…Discussion: 5 comments

Alexei Kolobrodov: Paradoxes Andropov

Yuri Andropov – the most mysterious of the country’s leaders in the twentieth century – a figure no less relevant than Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin. The scale, of course, less, but we live in the country today, are largely modeled to them.
Details…Discussion: 23 comments

Andrei Babitsky: On the way Saakashvili may stand only nationalists like Yarosh

Even yesterday, bringing terror to the population of Ukraine, the security Service, which ruthlessly cracked down on dissidents, does not know compassion, uses torture and extrajudicial executions, turned out to be a broken tool.
Details…Discussion: 40 comments

    Go to a section…

    Online marathon “election Night – 2017”

    Discussion: 7 comments

    Putin held a plenary meeting of the Eastern economic forum

    Putin held an open lesson “Russia looking into the future”

    Discussion: 9 comments

      Go to a section…

      Defined “Miss America – 2018”

      For the first time in the history of the contest “Miss America” winner was the representative of North Dakota. 23-year-old Kara Mundu is the USA champion, and six years ago was marked by Obama for his merits in the field of philanthropy. Local media and bloggers, however, the winner dubbed the “fatty”Details…Discussion: 12 comments

      “Irma” flooded Miami

      The popular American resort of Miami in Southeast Florida, like many other cities of the coast of the Atlantic ocean, was almost flooded after a hurricane swept “Irma”. Only in the de-energized state of 3 million buildings evacuated nearly 6.5 million of itemattribute…

      Musk first showed SpaceX space suit in full growth

      Elon Musk in his blog posted photos of the new SpaceX space suit in full growth. Prior to that, he showed the helmet and upper part of the protective space suit. The man in the suit standing on the background of the ship Crew DragonПодробности…Discussion: 9 comments

        Go to a section…For whom do you support in the conflict between Saakashvili and Poroshenko?

        • I wish you success Saakashvili
        • I wish success to Poroshenko

        Alexey Chaly invited to make a Patriotic Sevastopol the capital of Russia. How do you feel about this idea?

        • Support
        • Patriotic capital should be another city
        • Patriotic do not need the capital

        Ramzan Kadyrov has expressed its disagreement with Russia’s position regarding Myanmar. Is it acceptable that the head of the Russian region publicly challenged the country’s foreign policy (which is not true to his official authority)?

        • Yes, a politician can always defend its position publicly
        • No, in this case, it’s insubordination
        • All depends on the personality of the head region

          Go to a section…

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          News of the HOUR:On the Russian cities, a wave of telephone terrorism

          The extension of Putin’s presidency will happen in two capactity SERB broke a memorial Board Netsource we made the first payment for the s-400Запланирована large-scale reconstruction of Victory Park in Sevastopolia missiles “Caliber” increased demand for robelplast of Crimea assessed the non-recognition of the elections, Euroculture complained of Ukraine to the UN, OSCE and еврокомиссаруFT: Saudi Arabia plans to open PR center in Mesquitela known the value of the gift Putin the inhabitant of Izhevsk trips to Socialgallery presented a report on the violation of the border Ukrainerussia 11356 frigates for India will receive the Ukrainian degarelix destroyed 180 of the objects of the IG in the area of Akerbat

          The main theme

          The United States was breached, critically vulnerable to nuclear attack

          “walking intelligence”

          The Russian Embassy in the US said about bullying of the state Department

          “we believe in democracy”

          Clinton said the reasons “personal animosity” Putin to her

          support for Ukraine

          The EU does not recognize elections in Crimea


          Became known the plans for new restrictions on American diplomats in Russia

          “with the same tenacity”

          Poroshenko hoped for a breakthrough Saakashvili across the border of Georgia

          90 seconds

          The defense Ministry released a video of the crew of tank T-90

          incorrect analogy

          Alternative comparison of the Crimea with the GDR is unlikely to appeal to Merkel

          “the fatal error of Napoleon,”

          The historian spoke about the myths surrounding the battle of Borodino

          Breakthrough Saakashvili

          Andrei Babitsky: In the boat of Ukrainian statehood punched a huge hole

          the supply of American weapons

          Denis Seleznev: in fact, the “issue price” for Ukraine announced

          “Another September 11”

          Dmitry Drobnicki: whether the “Chilean miracle” and is the author of Augusto Pinochet?

          in your opinion

          For whom do you support in the conflict between Saakashvili and Poroshenko?

          The words of Kadyrov about “Matilda” check in Russia at prognostisering became a tool against dishonest taxi drivers with passengers,”the State is losing the media battle for population growth

          “The role of declining revenues is extremely small. We are doomed to fall into a demographic hole, which are pending the result of the two wars,” – said the newspaper VIEW, expert in regional demography, Alexander Panin, commenting on the alarming statistics of Rosstat on the natural population decline. However, he said, the state has the leverage to rectify the situation.

          Fresh Rosstat data do seem worrisome: for the first half of 2017, the natural population decline Russia has accelerated more than four times – 119,4 thousand persons as compared to 32.2 thousand in the previous year. However, in contrast to the demographic “pit” of the nineties, when increased mortality occurred with a simultaneous drop in the birth rate, the negative trend is typical for both indicators.

          The birth rate in the first half amounted to 821 thousand people against 928,4 million for the same period in 2016. Mortality, respectively, against 960,6 940,4 thousand thousand In the end, Delta was negative for the six months, the population of Russia decreased by 17 thousand people to 146,8 million inhabitants, and in the short term, this process may continue.

          Accelerating the natural decline of Russia’s population, demographers think in General, the objective process. In the reproductive age are now the small generation born in the “dashing nineties”, and this is the main reason why birth rate decline in the country’s eyes.

          However, demography remains subject to the control of the state, insists the General Director of “FLC-GIS” Alexander Panin. In his opinion, the previous measures of the demographic policy in Russia (such as the maternity capital) have generally proved effective, but now we need to pay attention to a number of related problems associated with the stimulation of the birth rate – the infrastructure of cities, the image component of the large family, and most importantly – specific regions of the country.

          OPINION: Accelerating the natural decline of the Russian population is situational or structural decline in the process? Is it possible on the basis of current statistics to make long-term predictions?

          Alexander Panin, General Director of consulting company “FOK-GIS”, candidate of geographical Sciences. In 2008-2010 – head of the sector of demography and migration at the Institute of socio-economic and humanitarian researches of the southern scientific center of RAS. One of the authors of “Ethnic Atlas of Stavropol Krai” (photo: facebook.com/foconsult)

          Aleksandr Panin: It is a structural process. Natural population decline will change under the influence of state policy and long-term forecasts to do just not worth it. And the short-term are likely to be disappointing. Anyway, much will depend on the quality of measures of demographic policy.

          OPINION: what has caused the current decline in the birth rate? Whether played a role in the decline in personal income beginning in 2014 and continuing until now?

          A. P.: we are Talking purely about the failures in the population in the reproductive age. The role of declining revenues, oddly enough, is extremely small. We are doomed to fall into a demographic hole, which are pending due to two wars and will be overcome for about a hundred years.

          OPINION: How the processes of natural population loss is geographically dispersed? Which regions show the greatest loss?

          A. P.: Demographic map of the country continues to change. But traditionally in population decline leading regions of Central Russia, they have long been donors to the labour resources in Moscow. In the result, sex and age composition of these subjects transformed so that even measures of state support there is little difference.

          LOOK: the far East in recent decades has also lost a significant portion of the population. There are signs of reverse the negative trends?

          A. P.: In the far East the situation is dramatically compounded. High rates of out-migration has led to the fact that the natural increase in most regions of DFO are either negative or close to zero. Although until recently this territory differed considerably higher proportion of the young population and stable positive natural increase. It is obvious that for DFO need specific and realistic measures of demographic policy. And then, what are the effects brought “far Eastern hectare”, remains a mystery.

          OPINION: Can we expect that the announced government measures to promote a healthy lifestyle at least in the medium term will reduce early mortality and natural loss?

          A. P.: Rather Yes than no. The reduction of the mortality rate, the state can have an influence now. With fertility much more difficult. Of childbearing age there is a generation of the eighties – very numerous. For this group, could be relevant measures to support the birth of a third child.

          OPINION: IN Krasnodar, for example, authorities believe one of its main merits of sustainable natural increase of the population (apart from immigration).

          A. P.: I disagree. Now we are seeing the stage, when large cities are furiously suck all the rural population in the radius of its influence. The main beneficiaries of the developers of budget accommodation. The “urban ghetto” has grown into the most successful cities of the South of Russia and, by the way, was able to enter in all modern textbooks on architecture as examples of how not to build.

          Natural population growth in large cities is not the success of the government, and the reproductive attitudes of rural migrants of the first generation that moved to the city and live in socially homogeneous housing.

          At all about how the authorities consider natural and migration increase, you can argue long. A system of registration of births and deaths works well, and overall numbers can be trusted, but data migration is not stand up to scrutiny. In our country the difference between de facto living and the de jure prescribed sometimes is 30%, what we see in the same Krasnodar, which in fact has long the cities, and the documents began recently. And then – in the boundaries of the municipality, which includes numerous suburbs.

          Other examples of statistics problems – causes of mortality and emigration. In each class of causes of death is the category of “other” and tracking its government, these figures are artificially low. As to the emigration, the level is high, but the statistics does not fix it, as leaving do not indicate purpose of trip as a permanent residence. So officially everything is fine.

          OPINION: what are the dynamics in the regions, traditionally showing high fertility? For example, the North Caucasus republics. Do they have signs that the demographic transition?

          A. P.: Yes, the North Caucasus remains a demographic advantage, but the situation is changing and there. Active urbanization processes alter the way of life and, consequently, the number of children in families.

          I think that in the coming years we will see a decline in the birth rate in Dagestan.

          North Ossetia and Kabardino-Balkaria have passed that period some time ago, and now do not demonstrate the phenomenal rates of natural increase.

          LOOK: now look How effective government measures to encourage childbirth in the first place the parent capital? Can we say that after the devaluation of the ruble and a surge in inflation its size is no longer appropriate for the stated objectives?

          A. P.: As experience has shown, the maternity capital has been very effective, especially in the regions. The challenge in reducing the recipients of capital, not its real value. But the latter did not need to be discounted. The increase in the parent capital is one of the key measures to encourage childbirth.

          I would, again, drew attention to measures to encourage the birth of a third child, especially in the regions. I think in the whole country, this initiative was broken, but she has potential. In this case, it is necessary to consider many factors, including the educational level of the modern family – many can hardly imagine themselves a large family.

          The government is now losing the battle for natural population growth in the field of media. To do this, as it turns out, also need money.

          But most importantly, to the large number of large families of the city simply was not ready infrastructure. By law, authorities are obliged to allocate for these families a plot of land and to provide a connection to the engineering networks. Most of the budgets it put a heavy burden, and many municipalities simply failed.

          You need a real solution to the housing problems: our research indicates that affordable mortgages rather quickly leads to the improvement of the demographic situation. Need more tailored to regional characteristics support measures, which should consider the factors and resources of each territory.


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