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Friday, March 23, 2018

The history of the “moderate opposition to the Assad regime” can be considered finished

The CIA decided to return to the priorities of the time of the confrontation with Scrofula Director of the FBI is suspected of having links with the Russian giants Energeticheskiy the “moderate opposition to the Assad regime” can be considered finished

The war in Syria has passed a critical stage. This stage – the final destruction of the terrorist gangs, to keep at Bay the entire region and – to some extent – the whole world. The US refusal to support the “moderate opposition” decided the case – the “moderate opposition” is no more. By and large – never was.

Starting in 2013, the “free Syrian army” (aka – the “moderate opposition”) gave LIH* 70% – held territories of, and the former “dzhebhat an-Nusra” – 20%. And even the remaining 10% of SSA monitors the not alone, but together with other jihadist groups, in particular with the “Ahrar al-sham”.

The source reporting these calculations, it is customary to associate with the command of an elite brigade of the government troops “Tigers”.

Rapid clarification of who controls how much territory began between rebel groups about six months ago.

In some cases, the controversy is purely virtual, the benefit after the liberation of Aleppo, the war finally broke up into several unrelated fronts, where from the side of Assad’s opponents operate, including groups with opposing political views. The apotheosis of these finding reached last week after the statement of the CIA and the Pentagon about the termination of support for any armed groups in Syria. Including in Idlib, where the control of the “reserve of goblins” almost completely switched to extreme religious zealots.

But if in Idlib, near Palmyra and Deir-ez-Zor it seems to be clear (it is ruled by “black”, that is the fanatics of ISIS and “Tahrir al-sham”), in the southern provinces the situation is much more complicated. After the conclusion of the agreement between Russia, the U.S. and Jordan on the establishment of a zone of de-escalation in the provinces of Deraa, Quneitra, and Suwayda were there groups of “free army” has lost the support of the American transit base in Jordan. Then suddenly it turned out that without the support of American trainers and suppliers, these groups are nothing.

They have not been too active, mostly speculating gratuitous weapons and their “secular” platform. However, their political doctrine revolved mainly around the slogan “Bashar must go” and after its cancellation by Washington, the very existence of most groups “secular” armed opposition has lost all meaning. To come up with a program of further restructuring of the country and reach out to her election, she is simply not capable of. Sometimes these people come up with their “position” to keep afloat the idea of a political settlement.

Otherwise, all actors will have to recognize that the war continues exclusively on religious and (in some areas) by ethnicity, but not for Western principles of democracy and fair government. And after the defeat of the FSA from the “black” in Idlib southern part of Syria was the only area, where it continues at least some political game with the involvement of external forces.

Syrian sources report that by the end of July in the province of Deraa and Quneitra profits of up to 400 Russian troops (mainly from military police units), which should ensure a ceasefire in the area. We initially agreed on tripartite control, but still not clear how the United States and Jordan intend to participate in it. While the American trainers supported by only a small “secular” armed group in the area of at-Tanta and Jordanians do nothing at all. They can be understood – over the years, they sought to protect their territory, so that direct involvement in combat actions (even in the form of patrol) happy.

On the other hand, it is assumed that former “moderate” with the government army needs to deal with the liquidation of the remnants of a large group of jihadists in Quneitra province. And there is not only ISIS, but also the former “al-Qaeda” and other aggressive bearded strange recension. While ISIS is the inner perimeter of the boiler, and at the forefront are mainly group “Tahrir al-sham”. To dig them out, apparently, will still have government forces with the participation of Russian advisers.

Southern front now, perhaps, the only area where perhaps at least some (albeit only demonstrative) cooperation with the former “moderate”. In practical terms it is pointless, but necessary from a political point of view. Despite the fact that the US completely disown his former protege and just threw them to the wolves, part of the “secular” groups negotiability, although with some reservations. On other fronts from them, nothing left, or they quickly change color to the black with a clear purpose – to survive physically. Confused with such allies as with goat milk.

To mock the Americans for all they’ve done in Syria over the past three years, nobody is going to – simply no need, everything is obvious to all. Even Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser told the Cairo CIA station chief Michael Copeland, with whom I maintained a good relationship:

“The genius of the Americans is that they never make simple and silly mistakes. They make very complicated stupid mistake which makes everyone wrestle and look for elusive meaning.”

Look at the situation, of course, Arabic, but generally true.

Importantly, the self-destruction of the vast majority of “moderate” and “secular” armed groups have cleared the field for the Russian VKS. No longer need to struggle to agree on a list of “good” opposition, so as not to inadvertently hurt them, and with them and American pride. This problem is no more. As there is no need to be in constant contact with Pro-us coalition on all fronts at once.

For example, now the epicenter of the fighting shifted back to the Palmyra, where the government army with the active participation of Russian advisers will attempt to cut the Islamic state in two parts by the capture of the oasis Sukhna. If it succeeds (and all to go), the largest group of ISIS between Palmyra and Aria will be cut off from Deir ez-Zor, which is now arriving reinforcements on the Russian helicopters.

The onset is slow because of the constant flanking counter-attacks of the jihadists who are trying to slow down the government forces through raids “Jihad-mobiles” and “carts” through the desert to bypass the advancing, threatening communications. Such tactics gave the effect before, but now, when every Syrian battalion of the presence of Russian advisers, and the overall level of tactical and operational training of the Syrians increased markedly, this is nothing more than pin pricks.

On the other hand, if the jihadists decided on a standard front defense of the oasis, they would have nothing left after a couple of days.

But in the current climate you have to constantly be distracted by the stretched flanks. Is the template for ISIL tactics, which is annoying, but can not cause serious damage.

Advancing from the North, government forces, relying on Itrium, already dislodged the jihadists from the town Marina, and further advance to the South and Southeast will lead to the encirclement of the entire group in the province of Hama. But in Deir ez-Zor 109-th airborne brigade of the Republican guard and battalions of the tribes finally drove the fighters from the town cemetery, to protect the city and the airport from the constant mortar attacks.

As to all this to fasten the remains “secular” and “moderate” armed opposition, to defeat the terrorists together, it is not clear, the benefit of the Americans and their allies in the aforesaid operations are not involved. Still another couple of weeks, and Damascus (you never know) will have artificially maintained afloat remains “moderate” from the former SSA, the original command which has long been settled in Turkey and a number of Gulf countries, and literally on the map to calculate how many percent of the territory they control. In any case, it is so negligible value that the overall balance of power, they can not affect.

If you look at the situation a little wider, I have to say that the political component “of protest against the Assad regime” simply ceased to exist. She was initially rather weak. The leaders of the “moderate” mainly consisted of disgruntled former confidants, the side branches of the Assad family. Few people remember that the civil war passed into the phase grinder immediately after the Syrian government under pressure from the “international community” pardoned all imprisoned leaders of the “Muslim Brothers”, which “democratic” goals never declared. And immediately grabbed the knives.

Attempts to artificially grow in this environment, European looking and thinking of the opposition Democrats, as it is not specified. Now this project, as well as the greatest Chapter in the history of the Syrian civil war, can be considered closed.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”


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