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Saturday, March 17, 2018

“Chechen result of” young governors: the results of the elections in the regions

At the end of 10 September regional elections in 16 subjects of the Russian Federation was elected Governor. Them in the absence of any whatsoever serious competition naturally turned the current heads of regions and representatives of “United Russia”. The results are dazzling.

photo: Natalia Muslinkina

89 percent in Mordovia went in for a second term of Leonid Volkov (creature of the former head who moved the Governor of Samara oblast, Nikolay Merkushkin).

87 percent for the just appeared in Buryatia Alexey Tzudenova, who had become famous the loud-admission to the polls of the campaign, his main competitor, Senator Vyacheslav Marhaeva, not past the municipal filter and removed from the election race. 82 percent for the native of the Moscow government Maxim Reshetnikov in the Perm region.

81 percent for the outsider of the “Rostec” Anton Alikhanov, the youngest Governor (30 years) in the westernmost region of Russia — Kaliningrad region. And if the first two regions are among the national republics, in which the results of the elections were always close to the maximum, Perm and Kaliningrad have never before been distinguished in this “Chechen ratings”. So, for example, Putin in the last presidential elections in 2012 in Kaliningrad region voted only 52 percent of voters.

Of course, played a role low turnout, many voters voted with their feet. Only in Mordovia and the Saratov region the turnout was above 50% (71% and 51%, respectively), even in Buryatia barely exceeded the threshold of 40 points. In most other cases, the turnout rarely exceeded 30%.

The leaders of the “vote kicks” became Tomsk oblast (22%) and Karelia (23%). Near they settled in Kaliningrad (26%) and Novgorod (27%). The only region where turnout appeared to be formally higher than earlier — Sverdlovsk oblast (33% in 2017, up from 32% in 2003).

In Moscow for the municipal elections came 15% of voters. But there were other reasons as suggested by Muscovites, precious warm Sunday day is better for the family in the countryside. Explain the main role of mundau in the nomination of candidates for mayor in the election next autumn was only an active minority that have chosen mostly members of the opposition in the Central districts of Moscow. But this is a purely Moscow phenomenon.

The voter is frankly boring and uninteresting to take part in the performance called “elections” with predictable results and without competition. You don’t want to portray the choice and all the more eager to choose. And what of the newly elected heads of regions with the lowest turnout? It turns out that Sergey Zhvachkin, the Tomsk region and Arthur Parfenchikov in Karelia during their official 60% chose less than 15% of the total electorate. That is, their legitimacy is based on 13% support. And if, God forbid, in the region of what a social explosion, this support they will not help to deal with it.

Again, based on current political practices, the percentage received by the head of the region open elections, shall not exceed the percentage received by the President. So if for Volkov, Tzudenova, Reshetnikova and Alikhanov voted over 80 percent for Putin in their region should vote for 90% of voters. But how to achieve this? Question.

Another example of total political Stripping of the campaign — the city of Sevastopol, where direct gubernatorial elections were held for the first time in its recent history. Another representative of “Rostec” Dmitry Ovsyannikov, having great ratings on the registration stage what was collected instead of 13 required by law 106 of signatures of municipal deputies. As a result of this, of course, those wishing to participate in these elections, Vadim Kolesnichenko and Sergey Baburina, Roman Khudyakov, and other just physically did not have enough autographs of sandepu. The result — 71% voted for Ovsyannikova at a record low for politically active Sebastopol 30% turnout.

The beginnings of competition in this campaign could be seen except that in the elections to the legislative assemblies of the regions and the city Council of Omsk, and Vladivostok. But even they are unable to significantly affect the turnout in these regions.

The results of the other parliamentary parties except the “United Russia”, and their representatives have not changed significantly in virtually all the regions of the second places were taken by representatives of the Communist party, in some places (for example, in Vladivostok) even managed to strengthen their positions (22% of the Communists against 39% “United Russia”).

But there are exceptions — on Governor elections in Tomsk region more than 22% scored a state Duma Deputy from the LDPR Alexei Didenko, pushing the Communist Natalia Baryshnikov in third place with 13%. Such cases can not help but be alert to the leadership of the Communist party, which has until the end of the year to decide on their presidential candidate, whose main task will be not to lose Zhirinovsky in March 2018. On the other hand, all votes taken, the Communist party “Communists of Russia”, who received up to 5% in some regions. And this could be critical for the original Communist party.

These elections have shown the existence of a request from the population to update the power in the country — nothing else can explain such “the Chechen result” young governors, demonstrated in the European part of Russia. Probably, it can push the Kremlin for the continued replacement of the governors and the new generation of technocrats. Already on Monday morning, media reported, citing an unnamed source in the presidential Administration that in the fall you can expect the replacement of “ten governors.” Who will be in this list of the “ten little Indians”? The elders of domestic regionalism has recently returned to the Kuzbass after a major operation, Aman Tuleyev or permanent Mordovian, Samara Nikolay Merkushkin? Or governors with tarnished reputation — such as, for example, Primorye Vladimir Miklushevsky or Pskov Andrey Turchak?

Early gubernatorial elections can add power legitimacy only in one case — if they are competitive. As in the Irkutsk region in 2015 — the one time in recent history Russia Communist Levchenko in the competition defeated the “United Russia” Eroschenko. And as if today it no peck, it remains a clear proof of the benefits of electoral democracy in Russia.


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