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Saturday, March 24, 2018

Poroshenko threatened with the loss of Ukraine’s statehood: the country will not “just be”

Thursday, September 7, Petro Poroshenko has issued his annual message to the Verkhovna Rada. It can be said, was the instruction of the Ukrainian leader of the parliamentarians before the next session, which started two days earlier. Poroshenko told about pessimistic scenario in which Ukraine can lose its statehood – it just will not”, but pledged to prevent such a scenario.

photo: Natalia Gubernatorova

The main part of his speech, the Ukrainian leader is expected to lose the problems of the Square, and Russia. “Coda” of the speech was his stated threat of loss of Ukraine’s statehood in the case that reforms will go too slow.

Poroshenko was throwing various epithets against Moscow. For example, speaking on the country’s progress on European integration, he said that Ukraine, though out of mortal danger, but over the country because of the pass still continues to hover over the “predatory Horde”. Do not skimp Poroshenko and the words about the Russian threat, which, according to him, now concerns not only Ukraine, but also the entire West. Russian-Belarusian military exercises “West-2017,” he considers evidence of the intentions of the Kremlin to start an offensive war on a continental scale.

— Because of this we strengthen the control in all sections of the state border. Unfortunately, there are no guarantees that the completion of the maneuvers, it all comes back home to Russia, we have, — said Poroshenko.

In his opinion, the teachings in Belarus, Putin wants to check the readiness for war not only the armed forces but of the country itself. Quoted Petro Poroshenko and the words of a good friend of Kiev, us Senator John McCain, that Russia is more dangerous than ISIS (an organization banned in Russia).

— They had no military capabilities, technology and the desire to rule the world, and Russia is there, — said the Ukrainian leader.

To protect against attack from Moscow, Ukraine needs to join not only the EU but also NATO membership. According to Poroshenko, nonaligned status of the Square does not guarantee complete security, so he intends to hold a referendum “to show the world the will of the Ukrainian people.”

Paid attention to Poroshenko and painful topic — the Crimea. He noted that the power method is not even considered, although the 13 percent of Ukrainians. In his opinion, Square should create such conditions that Moscow itself wanted to get rid of the Peninsula, but how to do it, he said.

Commented Petro Poroshenko and Vladimir Putin’s proposal to send peacekeepers to the Donbass. Though this idea was approved on the sidelines of the Ukrainian government, however, Kiev does not intend to agree the conditions of participation of peacekeepers from the unrecognized republics and Moscow. The Ukrainian leader agreed with Washington that the UN peacekeepers should be stationed not only along the demarcation line, but throughout the territory of the DNI and the LC, including the border with Russia. Worth noting: the statement of foreign Minister of Germany Sigmar Gabriel that Russia’s support for the peacekeeping mission brings the moment of lifting anti-Russian sanctions, not a little frightened of the Ukrainian leader. He insisted: pressure on the Kremlin should continue “until the full restoration of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence” Square.

Ukraine in the President’s speech was clearly won the second place. Poroshenko briefly mention a few main achievements of the government, however, based on his speech, the Ukrainian people are still dissatisfied with life and power. He acknowledged that in the past three years after the events on the Maidan, the standard of living in the country plummeted. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian President is sure that soon I will have a bright future and economic growth. Personally, he expects GDP growth to 4 per cent by 2020.

How this will be achieved, taking into account the regular loans from the IMF, which will have to pay — he said. Even if Poroshenko plans will be implemented, then 4 percent would be enough to at least approach the size of GDP in the period of Yanukovych’s government. Over, last but not least this is due to the civil war in the East, but Kiev is clearly in no hurry with the resolution of the conflict.

Clearly, such a high-profile speech, the Ukrainian leader is associated with the forthcoming elections in Ukraine, which will be held in the spring of 2019. Poroshenko will certainly run for a second term, so the application of a bright future, which supposedly prevents the Kremlin look on his part is quite logical. By the way, Poroshenko noted that he did not intend to grant the right of electing the head of state to Parliament after some MPs, because in this situation his chances to stay in the presidential chair extremely small.

Experts told “MK”, which means the performance Poroshenko to Russia, and how it will affect the Ukrainians:

Kirill Molchanov, Deputy Director of the Ukrainian Institute of policy analysis and management: “against the background of deteriorating socio-economic situation in Ukraine, Poroshenko is forced to escalate the anti-Russian hysteria to contain the dissatisfaction with the government. In particular, the President and his entourage will say that it is necessary to consolidate, to be patient and not to overthrow the government, because this will be used by the enemy. Without this, Poroshenko is unlikely to make it to the re-election for a second term.

However, if his opponents begin to play on the side of “peace party”, they may have a chance to win. In the end, the supporters of the continuation of the war in the Donbass and break with Russia Ukraine is approximately 25-30%. Many people want the peace, so tired of all these passions, and with time such people becomes more and more. In addition, no reforms will be conducted, will be limited to the framework statements and reducing the role of government in the social sector — healthcare, pensions and so on. Nothing good from this can not wait”.

Alexander GUSEV, head of the Center for strategic development of CIS countries “Kiev will continue to try to destabilize the situation in the Donbass, to raise the question of the occupation of Crimea, and so on. However, Poroshenko is an absolutely dependent figure, so no escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will not be as long as it does not authorize US. Fortunately, trump still doesn’t know what to do with all this.

Against this background, Russia should demonstrate a growing support for the breakaway DNI and LC. To lose in relations with Kiev has nothing. There is no reason to believe that its policy with respect to Moscow may change before or after 2019. On the contrary, in case of defeat Poroshenko in the presidential election, the government can come even more radical policies”.


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