On the eve of the meeting of the UN General Assembly in new York on 20 September, during which the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko had planned to go “urbi et orbi” (that is, the city and the world) with a call to send in the Donbass UN peacekeepers, something unexpected happened. Vladimir Putin, while at the BRICS summit in China, too, has instructed the Ministry of foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation to develop a draft resolution on the introduction of Donbass “blue helmets”.
And promised shortly to submit it for consideration by the security Council of the United Nations. This tactic game VA-Bank, and above characteristic of the Russian President, this time seriously cuts the ground from under the feet of his Ukrainian colleagues.
Poroshenko, apparently believed, as before, going to the escalation of the conflict in the Donbass region just ahead of the opening session of the United Nations, to bring to the UN General Assembly next piece of Ukrainian bus or a Russian passport, allegedly confiscated from “spies game”, or something else that was irrevocably to convince the world community in the presence of “Russian aggression against Ukraine.”
And then on to you. The President of “the aggressor” he invites UN peacekeepers to the Donbass. However, not on the border with Russia, as extremely I would like to Kiev, and directly on the line of demarcation between the self-proclaimed republics of the DPR-LPR and Ukraine. And exclusively with a single purpose – the protection of OSCE observers. It seems that in the current environment long term failure of the Minsk agreements by Kiev is quite logical.
The presence of the peacekeeping contingent under the blue flags of the Nations could stop the incessant shelling of civilian neighborhoods of the suburbs of Donetsk. Announced on August 25, the “school fire”, as the former “Easter” and “bread” is not carried out even a day.
Negotiations within the Minsk contact group to make it more like a ritual – the Ukrainians, contrary to the signed agreements, insist on the primacy of the transfer of control over border with Russia, at that time, as representatives of the republics, it is reasonable not wanting to be arrested on the first day, in this case, I repeat like a mantra the order signed February 12 2015 agreement – the withdrawal of troops, exchange of prisoners, General Amnesty, special status for Donbass, the amendment of the Constitution of Ukraine, the local elections and then transfer of control of the border in terms of actual legalization of the people’s Republic. By the way, signed last week Poroshenko Amnesty law for “ATU soldiers who have not committed serious crimes,” directly contradicts the Minsk agreements. But Kiev is in the open care.
16 September marks three years since the adoption by the Verkhovna Rada, presidential administration version of the law on the special status of Donbass. Despite the fact that Poroshenko signed it a month later, the law adopted for a period of three years, has not worked a single day because he is “the special status of Donbass” was frozen. And now, three years later, because of the position of the current Kiev leader, the situation in the Donbas is even further from resolution than ever before. At least for this reason, the region needs peacekeepers.
Who can be the backbone of the contingent? According to the established practice of the UN in conflict regions of Europe sent soldiers mainly from Asia and Africa. Another thing is that to help in a critical situation, as it has repeatedly happened in Bosnia, they are not.
Likely to participate in the contingent will also insist and Moscow, which does not care about the future of free republics of Donbass. In any case, to abandon such initiatives in current conditions, the UN General Assembly will not be easy. At the moment seen only two ways to resolve the conflict is “Croatian” and “Minsk” scenario.
In the first case, which aloud dreams of Kiev, after Stripping most of those peacekeepers in the Republic of Serbian Krajina in August 1995, more than 200 thousand Serbs for several days, were evicted from their historical territory in violation of all existing international rights and agreements.
The second – Minsk – the scenario assumes the development of a road map for the execution of the prisoner a long time agreement. Germany, France and the United States affirm their commitment to the second and no alternative to the Minsk format. But no action is taken. At the same time promised “peacemaker” Volcker American weapons to Kiev may become a trigger for renewed hostilities. In fact, as rightly noted by Putin, in the people’s Republic has also accumulated huge stocks of weapons, which can be applied in new areas of the enemy front. Obviously, that did not happen, and we need peacekeepers.