Vladimir Putin remains icy calm ahead of the presidential campaign that the political class, including political scientists, is not excited: shuffled deck “Politburo”, the candidates to the aces run the risk of becoming jacks, and separate jacks, on the contrary, expect the functionality of the Joker, in the list of successors appear amazing figures like Alexei Navalny…
And only the President himself exists outside of this deck: it looks like a calm Buddha statue, combined with weights — actually, he is in the zodiac sign Libra. And watching the Palace Brownian motion from above. Or with the Russian South from Sochi.
Once in Tuva, the country and the world were represented the miracles of the domestic orsotriaena, and to demonstrate the excellent physical form superior to replace the amphora came the pike in the rank of major of the FSB, and the masses and the elites got a clear message: nobody’s going anywhere, for the next six-year effort will be enough. And it is at least.
Therefore it is not necessary to assume that in the first day after the inauguration in the spring of 2018 Vladimir Putin automatically becomes a “lame duck”. It can be her. But, first, it will be his and only his decision (and the Constitution there is no interference). And, second, he will announce about it only in that moment, when you get the absolute assurance that his departure: a) will not collapse created by the system; b) there is a person or group of people who would give him the absolute personal safety in retirement. And if you do not provide so no one will not go away. And “the poultry yard” will never see for the “duck” pronounced lameness — everyone wants to be free: examples of arrests of major figures of the levels of Minister, governors and artistic Director of the fashion theatre for all to see. We have no untouchable and irreplaceable.
Even the very fact that Putin is in no hurry to declare himself a candidate, and does so quite pointedly shows that he does not need the excess features of the elites. He may become an independent candidate, delicately rejecting platforms such as Edinaya Rossiya or United people’s front. They want Putin, and they do not need Putin in the situation of the election campaign: he has her lead, just fulfilling the duties of the President.
Strictly speaking, he does not need and special services of political strategists, the bulk of the population and does not occur that the President of the 2018 might become someone other than Vladimir Putin, “the pictures on the white wall”. They, the scientists, need Putin, not they to him.
He didn’t need to rush anywhere: with all the “certain shortcomings” in the development of Russia (if, of course, long-term depression can be called “development”) of “Crimean consensus” stands as a rock. Yes, expectations from the new term of Putin either low or trivial (to raise salaries, to press the oligarchs, oil — nation, spectacle — he), well, it’s good, no need to hurry with the formulation of the message of the election campaign and worry about the fact that it is not yet agreed upon a program of modernization. Did anyone notice that the Gref program, the program INSOR times Medvedev, Strategy 2020 was implemented? Answer: no one. But life goes on. So no need to worry about programs Kudrin and the Stolypin club. No need to hurry. And then touch “base”, as did Gorbachev, — and then it all falls apart. And all of us, dear, “elite”, you have to make it to 2024 without destroying the basics.
But if someone thinks 2018-2024 years is a period of transition from autocracy to some sort of democracy, is deeply mistaken. This is the best the eve of the transit. For Putin, the more comfortable role of Stalin or Brezhnev than historical function of Khrushchev, Gorbachev, or Yeltsin.
Putin early to think about a successor. Given the fact that he is going to have a long and happy reign, there are all sorts of shifts — genuine and imaginary (for one candle did not hold) — in the “Politburo” have not much to do with what might happen in 2024.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky recently noticed that in the context of the history of succession it is important not so much who will replace Putin, and the “what”. But in our country for decades, if not centuries, “who” always means “that”. In a system where the only working institution — the first person, all highly personalized. Prime Minister Kudrin is one story, the Prime Minister of the guards and patrons of the Protocol — the other, the Prime Minister of the clan of the KGB-the security forces — the third.
Again: Putin is a Libra. He needs to be in the beginning of the next term to maintain the balance of the Palace groups, political forces and financial-industrial clans (“power = property” is sometimes the same thing). So, it is likely that in the first half of the new term of Putin — until 2021, the year the formation of a new Parliament — not the Prime successor, and technical artist. The head of government with a strong ideological position — Russian “patriot” or the Russian “liberal” — deprived the system of equilibrium. In addition, the charisma of the Prime Minister-successor appointed too early, maybe random or non-random basis to burn for a couple of years.
So why not rotate the elite most slowly, as it did in recent years when, with varying degrees of scandal left heavyweights of the era of “capitalism of friends” — Vladimir Yakunin to Sergei Ivanov? Why not technoratiservice system of government gradually, peering into faithful guards or protocolicon that can only appeal to Putin to “you”, not “you”? Maybe the new Prime Minister and future successor could rise from such polite, Executive, distantsirovaniya “faithful Ruslan”, ready and the door open and a chair move, and to cover his body?
However, the ideal Prime Minister-2018 — Medvedev Dmitry Anatolievich. Generally no changes are necessary in balancing. However, the chairmen of constitutional and Supreme courts have been waiting for the moment when they are asked to retire to make room for the former President and the former Prime Minister. But nothing — and you can wait a little longer. There is, however, the figure is not worse, maybe better — Anton Vaino, too close to the technical ideal of the Premier. However, the deck will always be some graduate of the higher command school with extensive experience in the security service. And you can surprise the audience in the same style as in 2004, when the entire elite was shown on the big shish: Prime Minister became unknown Fradkov.
In short, it will have to be patient and some popcorn. The audience of the theater could not affect the events on the screen: the script was written not by him but for him — that he supported the ruble slim design and daring drama. Even if the viewer ends rubles, he is in no hurry to publicly Express their dissatisfaction. The picture looks like a stalemate. But, honestly, it is very logical, given the enthusiasm with which “the people — the source of power” during the last 18 years from this his functions refused. In exchange for popcorn, of course…
Read the story “Medvedev turned into a suitcase without a handle” fired whether Putin is Prime Minister of a champion”
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