The gentle “Indian summer” or reminiscent of the approach of winter cold in nature, autumn can be different. In international politics, as a rule, any time of year — a hot time. This season is in this sense not an exception. Hanging in the balance the fate of President trump, elections in Germany, the ongoing divorce between the EU and Britain, the referendum on the independence of Catalonia, the party Congress in China are just a few signs of autumn-2017. How many unplanned and unexpected events it brings — not to count. Experts told “MK” that awaits in the coming months Europe, America and China.
Europe can expect a new wave of migration
One of the most important events in Europe in the political schedule in the fall will be scheduled for 24 September parliamentary elections in Germany. Fundamental surprises from them observers, however, do not expect. Is unlikely that Angela Merkel will yield someone the Federal Chancellor’s post.
— With the upcoming elections in Germany are related curious stories, says associate Professor of the Department of integration processes, MGIMO Alexander Tevdoy-Burmuli. — Although, of course, as expected, Merkel’s party will win, but due to the fact that you have to meet certain demands of the electorate, due to the fact that it is unclear with whom she will have to sign the coalition agreement, there is some unknown, which may be significant for the European integration process. In particular, the French presidency Emmanuel macron said that he was in favour of a “Europe of different speeds” and wants to flesh out some proposals in this area after the German elections. Consequently, he realizes that something depended on these elections. He understands that he will speak to Merkel more specifically, when it will again become Chancellor of Germany for the fourth time. From this point of view the German elections are of great importance.
Quite important is the story of the Polish-European confrontation. It is a dead-end in nature, but, given that, formally, the deadlock needs to be a way in the direction of sanctions against Poland, because poles don’t want to give up, there are risks of further escalation of the situation. Although, of course, no one is saying that Poland will break with the European Union. Rather, inside Poland may be brewing a political crisis.
HELP “MK”: 29 July, the European Commission officially launched a penalty procedure against Poland once entered into force a controversial law on the reform of the Polish judiciary. The act gives the Minister of justice the right to appoint and dismiss presidents of courts. Thus signed the law on common courts, the President of Poland Andrzej Duda vetoed two other bill sharply criticized the judicial reform, explaining that their contradiction of the Constitution.
Continues to be a destabilizing situation in the EU and a migration factor. Recently held a meeting on migration issues between several leaders of EU countries and African countries, the key terms of the migration process. It is unclear how effective will the agreements reached there (we are talking about the allocation of money to these countries in order to serve some of the buffer areas and filter the migrants). But anyway it is obvious that the EU is forced to fork out. There are additional difficulties associated with the fact that the Turks gradually cease to adhere to the agreement on migrants, which was achieved a year and a half ago — due to the fact that Turkey is no guarantee nor EU membership or visa-free regime. The Turks realize that they have nothing to lose if they fail to comply with the agreement. Therefore, this factor gradually begins to warm up again. In the medium term (maybe not in the autumn and early next year) a lot depends on the situation in Syria, where now there is some aggravation — and if this escalation is going to increase, Europe is waiting for a new wave of migration. While we can only speculate, but the possibility should be kept in mind.
Obvious look some risks. You can, of course, to talk about the issue of Brexit — but from my point of view, this is a fairly stable negotiation impasse: at least during the fall, no significant economic and political situation in Europe changes in this plan are expected. The parties fail to agree on the most basic conditions. When they can agree — is unclear. As and when agreements will be realized, a year or two before it starts to affect their effect.
We may recall that the fall will be a referendum on the independence of Catalonia from Spain. Of course, this event, but it is not clear that it could lead to something legal matters. Not to mention the fact that the proposed Madrid bill looks rather naive — in particular, the issue there is that, at independence, Catalonia will remain a member of the EU. Apparently, people don’t understand (although this is strange) the rules for the functioning of the European Union — this can not be, if the country is falling apart, parts of it have the right to apply for membership. And what they do not understand, several devalues the situation. Rather, it is initial position — and the referendum will mark the beginning of a new vnutripuzarnogo bargaining. But I wouldn’t expect any dramatic crisis circumstances. For some time this topic will be on the front pages of Newspapers, but is unlikely to have a long-term continuation.
Trump is willing to go very far
And what will the fall of America and President of the Trump in person? Full swing investigating ties between his entourage with Russia, which the U.S. suspected of meddling in last year’s presidential election.
— This autumn will be decisive from the point of view of the fate of the President of the United States of America trump — says chief researcher of the Institute of USA and Canada studies, Vladimir VASSILYEV. — I think that the issue of impeachment or removal from power of the trump will be the main problem of the coming months. Accordingly, will increase and a whole range of political problems which today determine the course of political crisis in the United States. The impression is that trump is, in principle, willing to go very far. And if the threat of removal from power will be real to him, he can go in destabilizing the internal political situation in the country.
In the framework of the Commission Muller (spectracolor Robert Mueller headed the investigation on the possible intervention of Russia in the U.S. presidential election in 2016, and also the Association of the team trump with Moscow. — Ed.) the Grand jury may considered the materials to make a certain kind of verdict against some persons from the entourage of the American President, maybe even the trump.
Exactly how President trump can go to destabilize the situation in the country, to say it is very difficult. It can refer to people — and all of America will gradually evolve into a large Charlotteville. And in this respect I do not rule out that at some point may be introduced even where some state of emergency or taken spermary (a trump can take control to stabilize the situation in the country).
The second very important point is the system of external and international crises. In particular, I do not exclude the fact that the situation around North Korea can develop into a very hot phase, which is likely to result in a serious international conflict that can stand in the way of military escalation. That is because it will dramatically worsen the internal political situation in the United States and will be tempted to trump to appear already not the President and Supreme commander, and thus remove the issue of his dismissal from the government on the principle of “winners are not judged”. This is a very likely course of events of autumn, the probability I estimate more than 50 percent.
As for Russian-American relations, most recently, the President, trump said that Russia does not pose a major threat. Today in America, there is no manageability government: trump is one thing, Congress is quite another. Today America is a Hydra with many heads. Most likely, relations between Washington and Moscow would be not very manageable. We can be held hostage to foreign political situation — the same situation in Korea. May arise other problems when the parties will be involved in processes where their actions will be determined by the logic of international crisis, and not their intentions (say, trump’s intentions to improve relations with Russia’s intentions to maintain a semblance of relations with America). Just the course of events can overturn all the calculations of the parties…
The main problem — fight against corruption
One of the “pillars” of the modern world — China — this fall will be a very important event: XIX Congress of the Communist party of China.
— When it comes to the Chinese party Congress, talking about them in advance is difficult, because the process of preparing for the Congress and the writing of the summary report — all hidden things, and the publicity they receive directly on the Congress, — says the head of the Center for political studies and forecasts of the Institute of Far Eastern studies Andrei VINOGRADOV. Although the text of the report distributed to the Congress delegates. If to speak about the problems facing China, which will certainly be reflected in the proceedings of the Congress, it is primarily a problem of change of economic model. And XI Jinping and his predecessor Hu Jintao have repeatedly talked about the need to change it, because the existing economic model that created the Chinese economic miracle is export-oriented, in fact, a number of parameters, it is very costly. And this model can no longer bring China such fruits as before. Therefore, it needs to be changed, it is necessary to increase domestic consumption. With the transition to the new model, there are many major problems, but is the task.
A very important socio-economic challenges facing China’s challenges of improving the living standards of the population (China in this direction has done a lot over the last decade), and environmental concerns, and demographic. As you know, China abandoned the policy of “one family — one child”, but now experts predict that by the beginning of 2030-ies of the country will face a labour shortage, and this shortage is structural. Thus, the demographic problem is not from the point of view of population decline, and the search of the optimal ratio of different age groups — workers, youth and the elderly. And I think this important issue will somehow be affected at the XIX Congress of the CPC. Because it allowed families to have two children, but it turned out that not so many Chinese families want…
The main, perhaps the political issue is the fight against corruption launched in the summer of 2012, just a few months before the arrival of XI Jinping to power — and is still ongoing. It is clear that this fight is not visible the end and edge. Moreover, the delegates elected at the party Congress, then spoke local organizations — because they were excited of the case (respectively, they lost their delegates ‘ mandate). For XI Jinping and managerial class in China the fight against corruption is one of the main problems because it directly affects everyone.
I think that this Congress will be a special section devoted to foreign policy and international relations, because the political situation has changed. And it changed primarily in connection with the arrival of the new US administration of Donald trump. And China for the last time says he is ready to continue the globalization and to play an active role. China talks about “common destiny” of people around the world — and makes it clear that he is ready to pick up the banner of globalization, but in other and more just principles. In this context, the Congress may have formulated a new view of the Chinese leadership and the Communist party about foreign policy.
With regard to the positions of power of XI Jinping, then they are strong. It is unlikely it will not re-elect the Secretary-General (although in the history of the CCP was a different situation — and Hua Goffena removed from the post of Chairman of the Central Committee, and Zhao Ziyang were removed — but these historical precedents are irrelevant to XI Jinping). In fact, in China there is an active political life (although by different rules than in Western society). The question is that of the 7 members of the Politburo standing Committee of five members on reaching the age limit will have to leave their posts and in their place shall be elected. And of these people, according to established practice, the next, the twentieth party Congress, which will take place in five years, will choose a new Secretary-General. This was the practice until recently, but the situation is changing. Actively discussed this point: but will this change? Will XI Jinping stay for a third term (which is expressly prohibited by Statute)? But about it to speak still early… Big surprises from the XIX Congress I do not expect. But the Congress gives an opportunity to the Chinese leadership to venture on innovations — either theoretical or organizational.
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