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Sunday, April 15, 2018

Nationalists waiting for black swans, Bulk — new revelations

Street protests have returned to our lives in the spring of 2017, together with the high-profile lawsuits, disputes over leadership and the expectation of any serious events. So, in the case of “26 Mar” in the colonies are already five in custody, the informal leader of the leftist Sergei Udaltsov to death quarreled with monopoly city protest Alexei Navalny. On the one hand, it contributes to the intensification of protest, with other leaders of the street the masses are “surprises”, and the proximity of the centenary of the revolution suggests a non-random coincidences.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

As explained to us political analyst Nikolai Mironov, the discontented masses are divided into citizens and inhabitants of the regions. And those and others there are now protests, but so far these two social layers do not overlap. This conditional “citizens” can live in the countryside, and especially in major provincial cities.

“This is who mobilizes Alexei Navalny, says Mironov. — It opens a headquarters in the regions, but, in fact, there he is dealing with the same electorate as in Moscow.”

Nikolai Mironov, just like our other expert, Director of “Center of political technologies” Alexey Makarkin, believes that a significant increase followers Bulk, which will be released at the protest rally is not expected.

They won’t be more, though not diminishing, in spite of repressive measures — assured the scientists.

It should be noted that mass protests may slightly increase in the region. Bulk still actively travels the country, opens headquarters and forms new cells of activists, ready to organize the demonstration.

However, given the current tactics of the opposition, it’s not massive in terms of numbers of people, but rather the massive publicity given to this story in the media, including Western. Agree that the “rally in support of Navalny were held in hundreds of Russian cities” appeals to his presidential ambitions, and how many supporters they have gathered — not so important, loyal media keep silence about it.

Navalny has not yet announced the date of the next protest action, but, as reported in his campaign headquarters, such action is being prepared. Most likely she will be confined to the new revelatory film, for example, again, the Prime Minister of the country Dmitry Medvedev. In the end, and the whole slogans, and memes drawn, and not all rubber ducks are still served from my grandmother’s MOP and returned to the younger brothers in total, the protest Arsenal at the ready. And Dmitry Medvedev — target verified and, apparently, much to their liking.

“That is preparing, to tell while difficult, but we are all waiting for a new campaign in the coming months — in the fall. And it is time, and the time is right. Of course, in the cold, the people will come, but I would have earlier,” — said the activist of the Moscow headquarters of Navalny Ilya.

Given the experience of June 12, when Navalny urged his supporters to go to Tverskaya street, where they celebrated the Day of Russia, it is easy to assume that he will take the opportunity and arrange a “walk on Tver” towards the November demonstrations of Communists and sympathizers.

By the way, on the “left”. According to Sergei Udaltsov, he is not going to arrange protest actions. The reason is simple: recently released from prison activist doubts that justice for him will be as loyal as Alexei Navalny, and for sure before the event just could not be reached. However, he supports the rallies of his supporters.

Left might be another interesting story. Leninsky Komsomol (the youth wing of the Communist party) participated in the protest actions that do not support their elders, for example, played a massive convoy at the meetings “For the freedom of the Internet.”

“We will come to the November demonstration in the column of the Communist party, planned a very ambitious event, — said the activist of the Komsomol Victor Lights. — If you along going anti-corruption campaign? Yes, most likely, the majority will join her in the process.”

As for the nationalists, they are now experiencing not the best times, though, believe the opposite. “And I, and Maltsev is not in the country, but a role we have fulfilled,” — said the speaker of the “New opposition” nationalist Yuri Gorsky. From house arrest, he recently fled to Lithuania and received political asylum there. Without waiting for the arrest, emigrated and blogger, one of the leaders of the nationalist opposition Vyacheslav Maltsev. In the group Maltsev “Barrage” States that the revolution in Russia is coming on 5 November 2017. But then he handed back, saying what the date is, in General, symbolic.

According to Gorsky, the revolution does begin, and very soon, and she contributes to the emergence of “black Swan” (the theory that “black Swan” revolution occurs contrary to the predictions of experts and entail large-scale consequences).

“We don’t know what it will be, but the situation is in favor of this theory”, says Gorsky.

But there are still a few protest groups, no matter how absurd it sounds such a Union: the miners, actors and farmers. However, such a selection is quite the same refrain is repeated in the context of the centenary of the revolution.

A serious shock to the theatre community was accused of theft addressed to the Director Kirill Serebrennikov. At the Basmanny court on the day of announcement of the measure gathered more people than at the rally for a free Internet; Moscow theater seasons begin statements in support of the Director. Most artists believe in his innocence, and those who still doubt, say that to begin to bring criminal case “the other end”. House arrest Serebrennikov appointed yet until 26 September. “We definitely go out to protest to the court or somewhere else, will be held major events in Russia and in the world,” say his colleagues.

As for the miners and farmers, the “black swans” they didn’t expect, but really looking forward to the salaries and promised government subsidies to pay off the loans. According to Mironov, among them strong protests, but these groups are not United leaders and trade unions, which played a role in 1905; and those who help them, at least legally competent to make their protests and appeals unit, and the creative class in the nation is not in a hurry. So if “alternative opposition” representatives of the two elite creative and working — still appears, not in the short term.

The Bulk Business. Chronicle of events

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