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Saturday, February 24, 2018

“Red-brown” are in power

24 September 2017 will be held parliamentary elections in the Federal Republic of Germany. 630 Deputy mandates claims a total of 42 parties. Half of the MPs (315) is selected in single-mandate constituencies, the other half by party lists. However, in contrast to the Russian electoral system and the presence of the Federal part of the party list, in German practice, this is not provided — even the leaders of the parties are in their regional groups.

photo: pixabay.com

For example, Angela Merkel almost the whole of his political life nominated by their home North of Pomerania. It’s as if Dmitry Medvedev at last year’s Duma elections instead of to go at the head of the list of “United Russia”, was nominated would be in his home district in St. Petersburg. Where, of course, would have a much greater ability to play a daring opponent. But enough of fantasies. Go back to Germany.

Elections to the Bundestag, in fact, are the primary elections in Europe. Judge for yourself — Germany as the main locomotive driving the EU is controlled by the Federal Chancellor and formed a government, elected in turn by the Bundestag on the results of parliamentary elections. Thus, the most influential is the European Parliament. Today to get into it have a chance representatives: 1) the ruling Christian democratic party of Angela Merkel (in Alliance with the Bavarian Christian social Union); 2) their eternal sparring partner in the Social democratic party, now led by ex-President of the European Parliament with a reputation as a Russophobe Martin Schulz; 3) “Green” with their fiercely anti-Putin policy; 4) the “Free Democrats” extreme liberals even in the European background, whose new leader Christian Lindner, however, has recently advocated the normalization of relations with Russia; 5) “Left”, whose leader, Sahra wagenknecht most clearly opposed Merkel from the rostrum of the Bundestag and 6) movement of European “Alternative for Germany”, which stands for the restriction of migration and the preservation of traditional German values. The last two parties are considered to be more oriented to Moscow in foreign policy, but on the background of hysterical sanctions policy the other is, however, quite easy.

Interestingly another — a well-established and rather conservative in their preferences German society for geography of electoral sympathies of the two seemingly opposite political forces are often the same. And coincidentally, these relate to lands primarily East Germany, the former GDR. For example, the most popular “Alternative for Germany” is in Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia — at last year’s state election the party came in second place with 24.3% of votes. And exactly in these same regions it is possible to meet a large percentage preference in favor of the “Left” — from 16% in Saxony-Anhalt (2016) to 28% in Thuringia (2014). Strange but true — the phenomenon of “red-brown” who so loved to throw domestic liberals in the 90s, in the modern world can be found not only in Russia. The combination of patriotism, conservative values with the requirements of social justice — it is logical and natural. According to various German analysts from one-third to half of the voters of the “Left” in the Eastern States may vote for representatives of skeptics as well, and Vice versa. I think it’s interesting this phenomenon applies exclusively to lands of the former GDR. In West Germany, to meet this almost impossible. What does this mean? On the preservation of the significant differences between “awn” and “conduct” (West and East Germans), as they used to say in the 90s? The impact on electoral sympathies left over from the days of German unification the adverse economic situation in the Eastern lands, where to this day you can meet the ruins of once gigantic factories closed after 1991? Or the presence of ineradicable socialist heritage in the form of paternalistic attitudes of the majority, which is still not ready to live in the winning country of migrants and homosexuals? Rather, all together.

But demographically in the Eastern land lives the fifth part of the population (16 million people), which not can dramatically affect the national public choice. Probably for this reason the “Left” decided to take a chance again and nominate the most outstanding politicians in the most populous land of Germany — North Rhine-Westphalia (18 million inhabitants). Here lists are the party leader Sahra wagenknecht, known for its work on the protection of the residents of Donbass deputies Andrew Junco and Alexander Noah. However, spring elections to the regional Parliament of this land Left is not enough to only 0.1 per cent, to overcome the barrier. However, the game is worth the candle. At the same time the skeptics of the “Alternatives” focused just on the East of the country — their leaders Alexander Gauland and Frauke Petri, headed by regional lists in Brandenburg and Saxony respectively.

The German electoral system comes from the coupling of the choice of each participating in the voting resident is choosing the list, such as CDU, as a rule, vote for the candidate of the same party in the constituency. But there are exceptions — when the “first” and “second” voice is given to the representatives of the various parties. Before this uncharacteristic tendency is called cleavage and is based on the preference for a more electable candidate his less successful colleagues. But in a situation of doubt as to the choice of conditional Saxon elector between “Left” and “Alternative” may effect a split vote for two directly opposing each other party. And so whether strongly they differ, as is commonly believed?

Alternative” advocates for public safety, secure the border, the traditional family, the promotion of birth, independent foreign policy, a decent pension, the people’s referendum and the preservation of the Christian traditions. Thus, the main topic on the agenda is security, demography, the country’s sovereignty, traditions, government, social sphere, the Church. Our “spiritual bonds” in German.

The “left” advocate the reduction of military spending, high pensions, work for all, free education, better and universal healthcare, women’s rights, environmental protection and democracy for all. The main theme is the alignment of social injustice, a return to socialist practices (more typical of the GDR, than the capitalist FRG) plus the protector of all potentially downtrodden from women and gays to the immigrants and animals.

Although, of course, the last (not referring to animals) would rather vote for a continuation of the current multicultural policy name of Angela Merkel. Because most migrants, except for refugees last year, has long been are citizens of Germany. And even the Council of the President of Turkey Erdogan, who strongly recommended that the world’s largest Turkish community in Germany to vote for the CDU, SPD or Green, is unlikely to be heard. A good example — just born into a family of new immigrants, a little girl named double name — Angela-Merkel Muhammad. It is quite revealing.

Who will vote for the Russian Diaspora in Germany? Good question, especially considering the fact that she is up to 5 million Russian speakers, of which about 3 million have the right to vote. If all Russian Germans come to the polls, the Bundestag would have met at least 30 of them elected with the votes of members. The largest beyond the borders of our country, the Russian community of the last decade was not involved in German politics and especially elections should not go. But times have changed — once committed to CDU leader Helmut Kohl, because he gave them the opportunity to return to their historical homeland, today the Russian Germans feel less comfortable in the background of continuing open-door policy for all (in fact, mainly Arabs) and the rapid deterioration of relations with Russia. German parties have begun fighting for their voices — “Alternative for Germany” included several Russian Germans in the electoral list.


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