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Sunday, February 18, 2018

“After Putin” politicians have described scenarios of regime change in Russia

In Russia a whole generation that “doesn’t know anyone but Putin,” and the basis of the economy already made the cluster managers who never made any models, except set in the Putin era. But GDP sooner or later will leave his post. Would it be a shock to younger generations, for the economy and for society as a whole? Will the bitterness of the struggle for power and other shocks? We asked political analysts and politicians.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Andrei Nechayev, a former economy Minister:

— No one is irreplaceable. And the presence or absence of shocks depends on how Mr Putin will leave his post. If this is the scenario played out earlier with Medvedev, — the appointment of a successor to the actual preservation of the entire old system of power, its criteria and traditions, then everything will remain unchanged and will continue through inertia for several more years. If the analogy with Soviet times, it is a transitional phase postbreeding period: Andropov, Chernenko. In fact, the same. Not very good, because change is demanded, but okay.

If the result of the democratic elections the government will change and a new team will come, the question is whether it will be able, without destroying what has been achieved, to offer what we all are looking for new ways of development. Returning to the analogy with Soviet times, if it is Gorbachev, we can expect the liberalization of the economy, democratization of the country, openness to the world without much transition and not lose a few years.

If it happens, force majeure — Putin leaves his post not at the scheduled time — then there certainly will be confusion. If we assume fantastic option: Putin leaves the Kremlin in a Palace coup, the situation with democracy in the country will only get worse. Because it is clear that the revolution is capable of achieving power structures.

From an economic point of view, if after Putin comes the man who does not support his conservative views, and the representative market liberal approaches, the economy will receive a serious impetus for their development. If this is the guardian, a supporter of further nationalization of the economy, further suppress competition, then we expect many long years of stagnation, alternating episodic crises. What we are actually witnessing since 2008.

Is the economy really that seriously depends on the first person of the country?

— In our country it is this: all catch the momentum gives the head of state. The system of economic decision-making is extremely centralized. Probably nowhere in the world except North Korea, this is not. All key decisions are taken by the first person. And even those specific issues on which the government or Central Bank can respond themselves, are still treated with an eye on the trend set by the President.

Dmitry Gudkov, an independent politician:

– First of all, of course, no 6 months, Putin’s not going anywhere. Neither after 6 nor after 36. But no tragedy for the young (or at that time already not so young) generation is not going to happen. It is only in North Korea, which had cut off her Internet, the population believes that “there is Kim Jong UN is North Korea, not Kim Jong UN is Korea”. But in all other countries, even with difficult access to information, the difference between the state and the leader know well.

Judge for yourself: after all, even our poor TV, and the clock says something about trump, about Merkel, about the “some Madurai”. And the fact of their change proves to the audience that the world does not end with the end of somebody’s term. The absence of a monopoly on information long ago destroyed the myth. It is in the XVIII century after the death of mother Catherine in the country could ride the wave noble of heart attacks. And now, no matter how obolvanivanii will not work. You know, countries emerging from Moore General secretaries, at the very least have developed immunity to the disease.

And most importantly: Putin now out of date — and especially morally. New generation is a new technology. As President, I’m sorry, not even in social networks, and mobile-no. A new generation is continuous communication. And the President once a year appears to the world to fake “straight lines”.

Finally, the new generation is equality, open borders, citizens of the world. And they impose a paradigm in which the boundary of the castle, surrounded by enemies, unquestioning obedience and strict hierarchy.

What, you seriously think that young people do not feed bread — let me go the summer is not beyond the Crimea, and then get on a bulldozer and crush a couple of goose carcasses? But only Putin is young and offers. And his vision of the future is exactly the same: we crushed three carcasses, and tomorrow will crush thirty! And nothing else behind the Kremlin wall will never come up.

A natural enemy of this power was the time. In General, at the time, “Iwashi” all right sang: “And the rust wears away, flintlock guns and, it seems, will soon exude really.”

Anton Orlov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Institute of modern politics:

– It is very difficult to make predictions about what will happen, most likely through almost seven years. The world is changing very quickly. But it is obvious that the next President will all be first time very carefully to compare with Putin. And this will fall on future head of state of a heavy psychological burden.

As for the name of the future President is guesswork, but it is possible to assume, what qualities of character will require it of the country. This man should be able to find a compromise with the West but fiercely defend the national interests. That is a strong personality with the skills of a seasoned diplomat, able to take a punch and to work under constant pressure. If the country that it will not see — can start a noise of discontent, which will either be ignored, or appeased, or suppressed.

Of course, the name of this person will depend on what position Russia and the whole world will be after 6-7 years, further regional conflicts. It is obvious that the US budget the money for the war has already been laid, and they should work. Also, do not exclude all kinds of provocations, by analogy with the Turks downed a Russian plane. Sure provocation will be exactly, and not only military. The leadership of our country will have to make a strategic decision: either to protect their allies or not. Both would have serious consequences and trouble. Important — to be able to keep your head in the cold, but not to lose face — this movement the razor’s edge.

Today Russia is at the point of bifurcation, i.e. the crisis. Putin is the main stabilizer. Then there are only two possible options: either the system state becomes chaotic, or it will move to a new, higher level of resistance. The West is trying to throw to the sidelines of international politics and to destroy the economy — this is the first option, that is the chaos that can turn the most dire consequences, until the collapse of the country. The Kremlin is trying to achieve on an equal footing, and the perception of our country as a power with which it is necessary to consult on any a little bit serious issues going on in the world, is the second option, the new state of stability of the system. Therefore, what qualities of character will have a future leader of the country largely depends on the way of development of Russia.

Valery Rashkin, first Secretary of the Moscow city Committee of the Communist party:

Without Putin nor peace nor Russia will not turn over. I hope that if shocks will be, it is good. We see that during Putin’s reign has degraded our industry, degraded democracy, began to lose the concept of honesty and integrity in government and business corruption is finally defeated in combat. No matter how much was stolen, if it did. Even if caught by the hand, as in the case of the former Minister of defense, he was not punished. Can punish only if it was not entirely his own.

Of course, there are the merits by which he will remain in history after all as a positive character. Putin went on a very difficult, fateful decision on the Crimea. We all pushed for this, but it required personal courage to dare.

But on the other hand, the Donbass, he just passed. So contradictory personality. Especially a lot of negativity associated with domestic politics and Economics. Putin, whatever may be said, has not found its course and has become a worthy successor of Yeltsin and Gaidar. It continues its policy, without changing anything in matters of social justice, but only brings discipline in law enforcement agencies to ensure strict submission of unscrupulous power of the oligarchs and to Putin personally — is a bright representative of the capitalist class. The courts, prosecutors, law comes not from moral norms and requirements of the law, and from the views of Putin on how. But if someone wants to get justice, then let this will tell the riot police and national guard.

Now the question is whether the unrest after Putin. I want to believe that in 2024, the struggle for power will take place in the framework of democratic election procedures, and power structures will not lead Putin’s successor to the throne on bayonets. After all, our country has gone through the era of revolutions, we know what trouble and civil war. And if the government again tries to impose a successor, then the society will not understand, and it will have to use force. I think there’s more chances to win will be the candidates from Putin’s team, because the society is already tired of their course. But Putin did not need to the end of his career was marred by violent confrontation, so will competition with these elections.

Historians with great probability will be called the first XXI century quarter Russia’s Putin era. But with what intonation they will say this phrase depends on how you change the President with shocks or without. Now, many serious experts believe that without Putin, everything will collapse. And this is not a compliment. Because a compliment for a leader is when he is able to build such a control scheme, which is able to work without it. However, it is not about Putin. He has plenty of time to melt the Institute of personality in state and public institutions. But the longer this is done the higher the risk that Russia without Putin will face hard times. And if so, then he himself no one will say thank you for the work done.


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