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Thursday, January 18, 2018

“War to the bitter end”: the trump was in the Afghan trap

I admit that at first I wanted to give this material a more catchy headline — “trump in the Afghan trap”. But the reality and history of our time strongly opposed this. Wow mousetrap in which there are such mighty animals like lions, bears and tigers, such as India, Russia, the Mongolian bogdykhans and English kings, and now the Americans. As is now caught in this trap, the United States President trump?

photo: AP

Monday in Prime time on TV was made by the President of the United States Donald trump. The speech was broadcast from Fort Myer, Virginia. The President outlined a long-expected strategy of dealing with the longest war ever fought by the United States in its history. The war in Afghanistan has already lasted 16 years. Nevertheless, trump refused to name the exact data on the number of troops that should be sent to this country. He also refused to describe the conditions, which could mean the success of “mission” in Afghanistan. In his speech, trump said that there is no carte Blanche to continue Afghan adventure America no one will. (I note parenthetically that on this day, the Afghan adventure has cost America one trillion dollars. In Afghanistan at the peak of hostilities was involved 160 thousand American soldiers.)

One thing was clear — proclaiming his plan for Afghanistan, trump has exacerbated the United States intervention in Afghanistan that led to the horror of his predecessors and which he called senseless.

“My initial instinct told me that we should leave Afghanistan, and historically, I would like to follow my instincts, — said trump. But all my life I’ve heard that the solution of the problems look quite different when you’re sitting behind the Desk in the oval office of the White house”. After a long and detailed discussion of the Afghan problem, which took place in camp David, and was presented to the public as long and exhaustive meeting of the war Cabinet, trump, the President said that he was confident in the following: “Quick and hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan could create a vacuum for terrorists, including ISIS [“Islamic state” is a banned terrorist group] al-Qaeda [banned terrorist group]”.

Addressing a military audience gathered at the base just outside of Washington, trump declared: “In the end, victory will be ours!” However, the President did not disclose quotes. He refused to paint a picture of victory. He refused also to explain how to get to the victory that eluded his predecessors

It must be emphasized that during the presidential campaign, trump promised the withdrawal of the United States from places where they are involved in military conflicts. By the way, many of the proposed steps was proposed earlier by previous administrations.

Despite this, he tried to create the impression that his strategy is a complete break with Obama’s strategy. In passing, he accused his predecessor in that he created an artificial preconditions for American intervention in Afghanistan. He promised his audience that his strategy will be clear and intelligible, based on a regional approach towards a political solution to the Afghan issue.

Part of that plan is sending more American forces to Afghanistan, training the Afghan armed forces. The goal, as stated by trump, is “to convince the Taliban” [the Taliban banned terrorist organization], which has recently achieved some military successes, they will not be able to defeat the military lists.

Trump, in his speech stressed that the United States will provide new, significant pressure on Pakistan to “smash” terrorist safe houses, which are on the Afghan-Pakistan border. According to military observers, such statements of the President of trump can open a new “turbulent Chapter” in relations between Washington and Islamabad. Refusing to reveal the number of troops that could be sent to Afghanistan, as well as “notches”, on which you can judge the success of future operations, trump was essentially trying to protect themselves against potential criticism from its political base and the American public that “tired from the Afghan war.” In his speech at Fort Myer, the President of the contemptuous comments about the Afghan strategy of his predecessor, Barack Obama, promised “not to repeat its mistakes.”

However, essentially the strategy of the President of trump is not so different from the strategy of Obama. Both are based on the combination of the use of conventional military force with diplomatic pressure on Pakistan. As stated by one of the representatives of the administration of trump, in fact, not be any particular change in the actions of American forces in Afghanistan, including actions on the Afghan-Pakistan border. In a sense, trump’s attempts to put to the fore a purely counter-terrorism mission of the us armed forces is somewhat similar to the approach to the solution of the Afghan problem, which would apply the former Vice-President of the USA Joseph Biden. However, in the end, attempts Biden was rejected by President Obama.

In this sense, trump was expressed quite openly: “We are not engaged in again by the construction of the state. We kill terrorists!” — exclaimed the President, fueled by its military audience. In any case, the trump, if judged by its performance, promises their country to untie the hands of American soldiers, in order to aid the hunt for terrorists, which he described as criminal predators and losers.

Trump said, “the Murderers should know they have nowhere to hide. There is no such place that would be outside the scope of American power and American weapons. Revenge will be swift and powerful.”

The situation in which he played the tramp — the scene is covered in American flags, aimed to present the country of President trump, as the Supreme commander. But the tramp had read quite a stress your text on the teleprompter, and his words lacked rhetorical colorful other American presidents during wartime. Trump promised that he will begin intensive diplomatic and economic campaign. However, this promise looks not so convincingly against the background of the current state, which is the U.S. Department of State. Suffice it to say that America still does not have its Ambassador in Kabul. As to the office of the special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, it is simply eliminated.

Trump mentioned in his statement on strategic partnership with India, even though it causes some problems in Washington’s relations with Pakistan.

At the moment are in Afghanistan, 8400 U.S. troops, including about 13 thousand soldiers of international armed forces, training Afghan soldiers now, Nearly two thousand American soldiers occupied the counter-terrorism mission against ISIS-related militants.

Trump’s assistants on the eve of his speech said that it will include new steps to pressure Pakistan being a sanctuary for the Taliban and other militant groups. By the way, it should be noted that Republican and democratic administrations for several years pursued the same goal, but without much success.

Close to the Trump figures emphasize that the American intervention in Afghanistan and the economic assistance that the United States provided to the Afghans, should contribute to the elimination of corruption among Kabul’s leaders. This goal was repeatedly raised in the USA and Western countries were also embroiled in the Afghan adventure. But Afghanistan is essentially a country of lawlessness. Moreover, it is in this state for several decades.

Strategy that is going to stick with President trump, it is highly risky. The increase in the number of American armed forces without any military success would have serious threats to Washington. However, representatives of the U.S. armed forces and intelligence think — doing nothing in Afghanistan and even in the time of strengthening the military successes of the Taliban is not an option.

In February, General John Nicholson, commander of the international forces in Afghanistan, told Congress that the United States and NATO are on the “freezing point”.

The Afghan trap is a potential political threat to trump. At least, according to “the new York times,” two Republicans, who spoke last year against trump in the presidential election, made a statement which opposed the continuation of the war in Afghanistan in any case.

“Sixteen years and two thousand lives of American heroes more than adequate price, which we paid in Afghanistan to destroy terrorist safe havens, — said the Governor of Ohio John Kasich, which presents itself as a possible candidate for future presidential elections. America can not afford to sacrifice his soldiers in such proportions”.

Senator Rand Paul, a Republican from Kentucky, categorically rejects the idea of increasing American troops in Afghanistan. “The mission in Afghanistan has lost its purpose and, I think, from the terrible idea of sending more and more of our soldiers,” he says.

But the house speaker Paul Ryan said that he is satisfied with the strategy and the process by which trump it reaches. “We can’t afford the materialization of new safe havens for terrorists,” said Ryan. Using the phrase from the speech trump, Ryan stated that he heard the doctrine trump “realism-based”principles.

The Afghan speech trump’s followed agitated weeks, which was characterized by the reaction of the President on the painted active racism events Charlotteville, Virginia. Position trump, taken in relation to these events, and jeopardized his ability as President to meet their goals.

Trump has used the beginning of his speech, to assert the unity and “national healing” after the events in Charlotteville. “We cannot remain a force for peace in the world if we are not in peace with each other,” said trump.

Since then, trump became the President of the United States, he spoke very little about Afghanistan, trying to divert the public from military interventions abroad and focusing her attention on the challenges she found at home.

Being an “ordinary citizen,” trump actively opposed American intervention in Afghanistan. He pointed to the high price of this intervention and the duration of the conflict. They said that for US there is no path to success in Afghanistan. So, in his Twitter account back in 2012, trump questioned the need for the training of Afghan troops by American instructors. Trump wrote: “Afghanistan is a complete waste of time and effort. It’s time to go home now.”

The uncertainty of the President trump the us mission in Afghanistan can be seen in how he “planted” the Pentagon the idea of giving the Minister of defense of Jim Mattis authority to send 3900 American soldiers to the war in Afghanistan. But the trump then not so much ate a bit much bit your tongue.

This Monday, trump was impossible to know. He announced his new strategy to the sound of trumpets, giving it the format of a presidential address for the first time during his stay in the White house.

Proclaiming his plan for Afghanistan, President trump became the third in turn the American President and commander in chief related to the Afghan ropes. The war in Afghanistan, I repeat, the longest military operation in the history of the United States.

Barack Obama, who led his presidential campaign under the slogan of ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, in the end, agreed to send tens of thousands of American soldiers to Afghanistan to “build there roads, bridges, schools, and a well-functioning government.”

The statement trump made last Monday, was to a certain extent, a victory won in the corridors of the White house defense Minister Mattis and Lieutenant General McMaster, who is assistant to the President on national security. The two generals argued that if we don’t act quickly to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan, the situation for the United States may be very dangerous. The Pentagon has long been indicates that extremists in Iraq returned to the forefront after the withdrawal of American armed forces. This is the result of the eight-year war Iraq. That’s why two generals warn that the successes gained by America in Afghanistan, can also be lost without the stable presence of new U.S. military contingents.

Some experts on Afghanistan welcomed the decision not to specify a precise time limit for the withdrawal of us troops from Afghanistan. However, other experts were highly critical. “This was the result, in the past, said John Dempsey, a former senior official of the State Department, who worked in Afghanistan and Pakistan. And particularly now that won’t work either”.

So, trump announced his “new strategy” in Afghanistan. Will it be implemented or not? And what will be its results? The future will tell.


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