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Friday, March 16, 2018

“The only possible strategy”: who is threatening trump, speaking about Afghanistan

Donald trump, it seems. Finally decided on one of the main military and foreign policy activities of States. It is the policy of Washington with respect to Afghanistan, where for many years the U.S. maintains a military presence. Unlike his predecessor, Barack Obama, trump is not going to reduce US involvement in Afghan settlement. Moreover, the American leader announced the plan involves putting pressure on Pakistan, which is known to be actively helping the Taliban (banned in the Russian terrorist movement). Main points trompowsky strategies and their importance to the future as Americans and Afghans, “MK” told the expert of the Center of studying of modern Afghanistan Andrey SERENKO.

photo: AP

“In my opinion, trump announced a strategy, which is only possible in the current situation, – said the expert. – In fact, this plan was proposed several months ago by the Pentagon. And, by and large, the President announced the project without any significant changes: it is clear that the creators of the strategy in this case is the us military. This clearly indicates that the Pentagon will remain a monopolist, the only operator of the Afghan project of the United States; the state Department and other civilian agencies will be barred from influence on the situation in Afghanistan.

– My new strategy of forcing the Taliban and its operators in the region (in the face of the Pakistani authorities) to the world through a series of military defeats to the Taliban. In this regard, trump is absolutely right: no exhortations, negotiations and diplomatic initiatives of the militants for reconciliation, not to persuade. This can be done only by putting pressure on Pakistan – it is no coincidence that this country is the US President in his speech paid special attention. In fact, he made it clear that, if necessary, against Islamabad could be a regime of sanctions – if the Pakistanis will not change its regional strategy.

Expect and increase in the number of American troops in Afghanistan and NATO forces – certainly not to the extent that was observed under Obama, when it was about more than 100 thousand people. But now the requirements in such quantities. If active combat operations by NATO and Afghan forces in the first place, the training of local forces and the increase of its population, – is successful, then reverse the current situation is possible. While the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban are engaged in “tug of war”, not being able to gain a foothold in a number of areas. Without a convincing demonstration of power, without a string of victories over the Taliban to overcome will not succeed.

Of course, it is very important that trump refused to announce the date for the Afghan mission. This is the right decision, because the specified date of withdrawal or cessation of operations, transition to various new stages – it was a gross mistake of the Obama team, as repeatedly warned. You can’t do that, you can’t inform the enemy about their plans, because in the end the Taliban is just waiting for the right moment.

Another important aspect – the rejection of axiological approach to the Afghan project. That is now in the country will export democratic procedures, legal and social technologies; now we are talking only about implementation of tasks to ensure the security of the United States. This opens up the Afghan authorities great scope for transformation of the local political system. The need for such change is long overdue, as it is clear that not all democratic attitudes take root in Afghan soil. I think the trump course could lead to recovery of some traditional and traditionalist policies in Afghanistan. Unlikely to be rolled back to a monarchical form of government, but a departure from the Western plants will be. Obviously, intensify religious and ethnic factor in Afghan politics, and it is possible that after some time we will see a very different country – more organic to the context in which it existed for many years.

Plans for strengthening the Afghan army will probably be implemented. In the end, the role of the military in the politics of Afghanistan will be intensified, and would not be surprised if one day they will take responsibility for the political future of the state.

As one of the goals trump outlined prevent the restoration of the terrorist infrastructure in Afghanistan, including preventing the consolidation of an “Islamic state” (ISIS/ISIL is not a terrorist group) and “al-Qaeda” (banned in Russia as a terrorist group). Speaking of ISIS, the US President referred to the experience of the campaign in Iraq, where, in the hasty departure of us forces and appeared to lay down the conditions for the formation and strengthening of the “Islamic state”.

One of the reasons for developing a new strategy trump called also the desire to prevent nuclear technology in the hands of terrorists. Lately this topic has faded into the background, but the fact that the President came back to her, is very significant. Of course, he could do it, just for the sake of adding drama to his speech. On the other hand, the smoke without fire does not happen – perhaps there is real reason to worry about this. Thus the Afghan mission trump transformed not only into a tool for stabilizing Afghanistan and defeating the Taliban, but also a tool of external control over Pakistan”.

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