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Saturday, February 17, 2018

How to resolve the Korean crisis without war

In the North Korean crisis, which is daily deteriorating (at least at the level of verbal threat), has one positive aspect: the positions of the US and Russia converge on this issue.

photo: Alex geldings

Sergei Lavrov, for example, clearly expressed on 11 August that, despite the fact that North Korea withdrew from the Treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in 2003, this country needs to get its military nuclear program because it would be too great a threat to regional and world security. “Russia will not accept a nuclear North Korea,” Lavrov said.

And on this basis, Russia last week supported the new UN sanctions against the DPRK — and rightly so!

According to the Treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, five countries (United States, Russia, China, France and Britain) have the right to own nuclear weapons. However, under this Treaty, the five recognized members of the “nuclear club” undertake to adopt measures to reduce the number of its nuclear bombs and warheads that Russia and the United States from time to time.

Although the final objective of this agreement is “the elimination of all nuclear weapons in all countries” is rather utopian and practically impossible, the main objective of this Treaty to new States did not possess nuclear weapons is quite real. But only if the US and Russia (and China) will continue to work together on this issue.

In addition to these five members of the “nuclear club”, which both are permanent members of the UN security Council, there are still Pakistan, India and Israel which have not signed the Treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons and yet they have. It turns out, there are five “legitimate” nuclear powers and three “not quite legal”, but more or less tolerant of nuclear power. The problem is that their nuclear Genie is already out of the bottle, and drive it back is virtually impossible.

And in addition to these eight powers, there is also North Korea, which is a clear exception from the existing “nuclear club”. The fact that the DPRK is a world pariah, who is constantly engaged in nuclear blackmail against its neighbors and the United States. Even Russia, in fact, concurs with this harsh words. That is why the consensus of almost all countries that the nuclear status for North Korea, citing Lavrov, “unacceptable.”

If the US, Russia and other countries, the guarantors of the global regime on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, will succumb to nuclear blackmail, the DPRK, then it will be a real risk that dozens of new countries will also want to acquire their nuclear weapons. And it would mean the complete collapse of the whole Foundation of the existing international security regime.

One thing — 8 nuclear countries (this is already a fait accompli). Completely different and unacceptable thing — 80 nuclear countries.

More than 190 countries signed the Treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons precisely in order not to have 80 or more nuclear countries. And if the DPRK will remain a nuclear country, Pyongyang will trigger a dangerous chain reaction of nuclear proliferation around the world.

The problem is that the three main proposed method of solving the North Korean problem will not work for the following reasons.

1. Even the most stringent economic sanctions alone are unlikely to force North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.

2. The proposal of the Russian foreign Ministry that Pyongyang to freeze its nuclear program (how many times over the past 20 years, North Korea blew that idea!) if the United States will cease to conduct military exercises in South Korea, is absolutely unrealistic for two reasons.

First, the trust of South Korea to North Korea — even hypothetically a non-nuclear North Korea — is completely undermined by obvious circumstances, and Seoul depends on the American military “umbrella” of security. Secondly, the Russian proposal is illogical. Do we have to go on the inadmissibility of the nuclear status of the DPRK — the basic position is that Russia fully supports. That is, North Korea must abandon its nuclear program — period! Then what does the American military exercises in South Korea? These teachings are associated with conventional weapons, not nuclear. South Korea, like North Korea, has the full sovereign right to conduct its military exercises with conventional weapons.

Quite another thing would be if the US stationed nuclear weapons on the territory of its military bases in South Korea. In this scenario, a deal would be logical, that is, North Korea would abandon its nuclear weapons, South Korea would refuse her.

3. The elimination by the us bombing of the North Korean nuclear Arsenal and the capacity is also not an option because it likely would have led to the deaths of millions of people in North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan and maybe in other countries, especially if the answer is to use nuclear and chemical weapons.

If you really look at this situation, there is only one option — military and economic containment of the DPRK. This means that the international community must actually accept the fact that North Korea is a nuclear country until at least. However, North Korea must know that any use of these weapons would mean the complete physical destruction of the North Korean state.

American deterrence, the DPRK should consist of four main parts.

1. The most powerful nuclear Arsenal in the United States. This is one reason why Washington needs to invest billions of dollars to upgrade its nuclear Arsenal and improving its quality (but not quantity) to such rogue States as North Korea, understood that any use of nuclear weapons against the US or its allies is tantamount to suicide.

2. In addition to strengthening the defense systems in South Korea and Japan, the United States should strengthen the deployment of ABM systems in these countries — both on earth and aboard us ships to defend those countries from North Korean ballistic missiles. That increase in the quantity and quality of North Korean ballistic missiles (and Iran, by the way) emphasizes the real threat to America and its allies for which the United States withdrew from the ABM Treaty in 2002.

3. The strengthening of conventional military forces on American bases in South Korea and Japan. Plus the US need to think seriously about the possibility of placing nuclear missiles on these bases as the additional measure of deterrence of the DPRK, if other measures are ineffective.

4. Deterrence of the DPRK may also include a secret program of cyber attacks on military installations of a country to weaken its nuclear capability.

A key element of deterrence, North Korea is “strategic patience.” The most important thing for the administration of tramp — do not be tempted to resort to a military solution to the North Korean conflict. War with North Korea would lead to a massive regional disaster, both humanitarian and economic, and perhaps even would have led to a world war.

Deterrence of the DPRK is the best way to solve this problem. While the United States together with the international community exert pressure on Pyongyang military deterrence and sanctions on the principle of “drop a stone”, we all need to be patient and just wait for the natural and inevitable collapse of the North Korean regime. I think that will have to wait a relatively short time.

History shows that this kind of illegitimate, criminal and tyrannical regimes one hundred percent doomed to failure. Unlike legitimate States are illegitimate and criminal state long live in a historical perspective.

In recent history we have observed this natural collapse, including all Eastern European countries in the late 80-ies of the last century, and in the Soviet Union in 1991. And most importantly — this crash occurred without war. Similarly, no war can solve the North Korea problem, I’m sure.

History is definitely on the side of the US, Russia and almost the entire international community who believe a nuclear North Korea is unacceptable. It is inevitable that the government of the DPRK will collapse in the next decade, if not sooner. And the two Koreas are finally combined into one, as happened with Germany. The Chinese political leadership must be understood as Mikhail Gorbachev realized in 1990 on the occasion of the United Germany that the merger of the two Koreas is inevitable, even if it would be a huge blow to the Chinese geopolitical interests.

Deterrence and “strategic patience” contributed to the victory of the West in the cold war. Such a policy can also work successfully against the DPRK.

The most important thing is to avoid war.

Sanctions . Chronicle of events

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