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Tuesday, November 21, 2017

East Ukrainian state: the origins, conditions of creation and prospects


Since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis and the actual separation of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the idea of creating an independent state in the East of Ukraine is constantly in the air, sharing the information field into two warring camps.


photo: ru.wikipedia.org

One of them yells that the new Russia and little Russia – this project is the main enemy of Ukraine Vladislav Surkov, and then there definitely is haunting Rod. The other – at least out loud – about the atrocities of war and the legitimate rights of the Eastern Ukrainians to take as much sovereignty as they can carry.

Both sides seemed to forget about the origins of the crisis of 2013-2014 that led to the actual collapse of the country. Let me remind you that it all started with the fact that power in Ukraine without any elections has moved from President – opponent of European integration, Viktor Yanukovych the Prime Minister – the supporter of Eurointegration of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

Then one of the main claims to the current President of Ukraine Yanukovych was a unitary system of government, which inevitably led to the crisis because of the heterogeneity of the Ukrainian people. Events 2013 – 2014 showed a new, focused on Europe, the Ukrainian government even less than Yanukovych, are ready to hear the voices of those who disagree with the General course “of the party and government”, which resulted in the end in the actual collapse of the country.

Thus, the crisis of 2013-2014, and the idea of creating a separate state in the territory of the DLNR have a common cause: first, the reluctance of Yanukovych, and now Petro Poroshenko, to change the utilitarian model of public administration on the Federal, when each territory has an inalienable right to determine the direction of their own development.

Although history does not know subjunctive mood, I suppose that then hold Yanukovych in power, be separated, for example, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv region, and therefore would not now DLNR, and ILNR…

Even then, five years ago, it was clear: the holistic Ukrainian nation does not exist. There are two Autonomous communities, which completely different views on their future, different interpretations of the past, choose a different economic model, and even speak different languages.

The very heterogeneity of the Ukrainian people demanded or the country’s collapse or a radical change of government, only in this heterogeneity is necessary to seek the origins of the idea of creating another state on the territory of Ukraine.

In-plane resolution of the problem of peaceful coexistence is extremely heterogeneous population we must look for ways out of the crisis. Today is either the granting broad autonomy of DLNR (read the full execution of the Minsk agreements), or – Yes – the creation of a new state.

It is quite possible is to implement each scenario. The Minsk agreement can start to execute as soon as in Ukraine changed the power, and presidential elections were not far off.

We yet consider a second scenario: what would happen if the main course of the Ukrainian authorities remains the same. In this case, about the execution of Minsk agreements can be forgotten, how can we forget about the return of DLNR in the Ukraine.

Consequently, a new state on the territory of Eastern Ukraine in a short time maybe ideas become a reality. Not because he wants to Zakharchenko, not because of the high walls of the Kremlin is brewing a cunning plan, but because Eastern Ukrainians want to live, to grow, to build the future. If Poroshenko and the company does not want to see these territories part of Ukraine, there remains nothing except the creation of a new state.

So, the main condition of creating a new state on the territory of Ukraine is the further fulfillment of the Minsk agreements. In my opinion, it is important to understand that in fact this is a key, if not the only condition. Everything else: the legitimacy of the referendum, the recognition of other countries, the name, Constitution, etc., is to attach itself. Why? Because once venerated throughout the history of mankind.

Only in the 17th century on the world map, a: Montenegro, Kosovo, South Sudan, East Timor, Abkhazia, South Ossetia. All of these countries live, to develop the economy, and, most importantly, interact with other States, despite the presence or absence of international recognition.

The fact that the 20-21 century has shown that money wins policy, so the prospects for the development of such a state, if it is still to be formed, depends not only on the official foreign policy of reaction, and the ability of Eastern Ukrainians to work on the development of its own economy.

To say that one has only to announce the creation of the state on the territory of the DLNR will be an economic miracle – a lot of propaganda. We better sober assessment of the resources of the people’s Republic. It is obvious that not one year is required to restore the infrastructure of the territories.

Meanwhile, overall economic and especially industrial potential DLNR is great. Even in terms of military actions on the territories of national republics continue to operate the chemical, metallurgical, pharmaceutical and many other businesses.

Owing to the vastness of fertile lands, not less potential the agriculture DLNR, which now, for obvious reasons, is in disarray. Meanwhile, in terms of counter-sanctions, representatives of domestic agricultural holdings, unable to exercise the highest interest in the development of agriculture DLNR, immediately upon the cessation of hostilities.

It is important to understand that not only Russia will help restart the economy DLNR. The fact that in these areas a number of companies that do not have analogues in Ukraine. No matter what will be the power in the square, economic ties with the DLNR will be supported.

Thus, in the medium term, such a state has all opportunities for intensive economic development, primarily due to restoration of the unique industrial enterprises and development of agriculture. The legalization of same positions in the international arena, as I have said, will follow by itself.

Now to underestimate the idea of creating a new state – means to show the extreme folly and to throw out of the calculations of the image of the future one of the main scenarios.

PS Remembering the importance of being earnest, will offer a version of the name for that state: Slavia, as does one of the historically recognized Slavic centers of Russia.

source

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