August in the Ukraine — this is the time when “the striking silence of the summer break is just a sleepy whirling above the dining table flies”. So it was with Nikolai Vasilievich Gogol, but since then, obviously, a lot has changed. Now August is a time effective showdown, solutions accumulated during the season of problems.
So the head of the Donetsk national Republic Alexander Zakharchenko decided in anticipation of this August, as much to announce the re-establishment of the Ukraine. However, with its capital in Donetsk and comprising only one DPR. Apparently he’s forgotten that, historically, the Donbass to Ukraine has never had any relation, and its inhabitants actually fought for the last three years for that, and then no relation to Ukraine — the successor of the Ukraine not to have it. Strange at first glance, the initiative was soon disavowed by Zakharchenko and nothing but genuine surprise of experts from both the Russian and the Ukrainian side, cause not yet. There is, perhaps, the only plus from it — a continuation of the discussion on the future device of Ukraine “after the victory”. The only question is whose and when.
August is the month of the creation of Ukraine in its current form. Right after the failed attempt of preservation of the USSR in the form of a putsch with trembling hands 19-21 August 1991, finally made sure that General Varennikov will not lift the Kiev military district, the Supreme Council (Rada) of the Ukrainian SSR adopted the Declaration on state independence (Nezalezhnosti) of Ukraine. So, marking the victory day “free Russia”, do not forget that one of the many direct consequences has been the emergence of the current anti-Russian Ukraine. As, however, and many other independent now and not supply a special reverence to Moscow republics.
The recent statement of the former head of the SBU Valentin Nalyvaychenko about the fact that the government in Kiev, it’s time to take the “heroes ATO” — that is, to create a classic military junta, following the pattern of countries of South America, from the category of another self-fulfilling predictions. In a “society of the spectacle” in which we live the last half century, the reality comes from fiction a little belated answer to the question “where did you see the Ukraine junta and the desire to fight with Russia.” Many modern Ukrainians, configured for the last three years, a tough anti-Russian, more want war. But here’s the thing — if, indeed, the Kiev government because of or in spite of Poroshenko will go in a short time in the hands of the “heroes ATO”, will reveal the hushed-up in Ukraine the truth about the war, the civil war in the Donbass. After all, who else, if not actual combatants, for sure knows what they’re fighting. Armed, though not without Russian help, but first and foremost the local population with the Ukrainian in the recent past passports. And this truth can dramatically affect the future shape of the Ukrainian state.
Now, during the summer lull, it’s time to take stock of the recent political season and make predictions for next. Especially over the past three years this topic has become no less important to Russian women than our own policy.
Relations between the two countries over the past year expect even more deteriorated is mainly due to a continuation of anti-Russian hysteria in Ukraine amid lack of any wins in the ATO. In the near future the Ukrainian government plans to introduce electronic visas and entry exclusively biometric passports for citizens of Russia on its territory. In Kiev the festivals “songs of the war with Russia”, “Azov” conducts paramilitary camps for the training of future soldiers to March “in Moscow”, and politicians continue to practice who loudly urge to kill Muscovites. It all says only one thing — the bottom until this hysteria has not reached, and therefore, ahead new and even more terrible scenarios in which the implementation of the promises “to return the Crimea and Donbass” by military means, then there is that war with Russia — only a matter of time.
Poroshenko in a hurry and is already beginning to live in the mode of election campaign. He is very afraid of losing the initiative, giving her the nationalists, because the stock is trying to lead any possible anti-Russian movement. Began in the winter of the blockade of Donbass forces understood by few “activists ATO” — a short time later the administration of the President of Ukraine, contrary to its own previous statements proposed to introduce this blockade at the state level, thereby intercepting the agenda. More than competitive Russophobic direction of modern Ukrainian politicians to seize the initiative Poroshenko mean, anyway, to repeat the fate of Yanukovych. Only here to escape it is unlikely to give.
Enduring political instinct Yulia Tymoshenko over the past year have strengthened her on the political stage. If presidential elections in Ukraine were held soon, according to the ratings, Tymoshenko would have won them any other politician. That is why the current President is extremely important to neutralize it, and calmly hold the elections in tandem with any politician of the Opposition bloc representing the East of the country, which Poroshenko can win (names of Yury Boiko and Vadim Novinsky). The most realistic scenario for this is the non-admission of Tymoshenko to participate in the presidential campaign by bringing her a new judicial claims. Model Viktor Yanukovych sample 2011. However not the fact that it works in the new political situation. The power change on the Maidan, not so much in need of written laws procedures as before. It is therefore much more dangerous competition in the election to Poroshenko, the new wave of social protests that, without a doubt, overwhelm Ukraine next autumn. At the end of last year in a similar situation only a miracle helped the administration of the Ukrainian President at the last moment to prevent the start of a new Maidan under the leadership of the political force of Yulia Tymoshenko, is scheduled for November 15. Then in Kiev were brought more than 50 thousand trade Union representatives from all over Ukraine, who was supposed to speak, but that speech was canceled. Any similar situation in the near future is guaranteed with regard to the physical change of government with a nationalist tinge. Punitive battalions ATO that go from the front to Kiev (that’s what frightened the unknown “activists” during the beginning of the blockade of Donbass in February), would be a nightmare for Poroshenko. Therefore, it is possible with high probability to assume that the flywheel of anti-Russian hysteria will eventually crush itself Poroshenko, of course, not the organic, its representative (business in Russia) and will bring to the forefront the real radicals. The Pechersky district court in Kiev, exactly 6 years ago sentenced Tymoshenko, has ordered security check of the President’s participation in financing the “army of the aggressor”, referring to tax deductions Lipetsk factory of Poroshenko to the Russian budget. Can radical new protest movement to lead Tymoshenko, depends on political art. But what in any case you will need rukopozhatnyy in the West zits-Chairman, is the fact. But Tymoshenko is able to change our personalities, known to all.
The new Ukrainian government “after Poroshenko” is likely to be configured even more anti-Russian. That is why the current Kiev leader will do everything in order to skillfully simulate the main nationalist Ukraine. However, such scenarios are in any case significantly increases the likelihood of direct military conflict between the armed forces and the armed forces.