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Monday, April 16, 2018

A question of survival for Ukraine: whether it turns to Russia

Exactly a year ago in the pages of “MK” we have started discussion on “How to return us to Ukraine”. Its essence is the following: whatever it was, the Ukrainians have been and will be our best people, Ukraine still will not swim to Australia, the Koala and the eucalyptus trees, no matter how dreamed of this, some Ukrainian politicians, and their South-Western borders of Russia is more profitable to have a bad peace than good, even civil war.

Over the past year the situation in Russian-Ukrainian relations deteriorated expected, so the continuation of this conversation has become even more important.

At the moment there are several trends in the deterioration of our relations with Kiev, because before to reunite, as taught by comrade. Lenin, you should totally dissociate. Alas, the historical process from the time of Lenin, not much has changed.

We are now at a stage close to total division: long time no planes fly, trains go yet (but temporarily); factories focused on selling its products to Russia, are idle or have been closed; the Verkhovna Rada adopted the law on integration into NATO and is considering a draft law on compulsory transfer of churches of the UOC of the Moscow Patriarchate, the self-proclaimed Kiev; in the background has signed agreements on visa-free regime with the EU until the end of the year for citizens of the Russian Federation, probably, will introduce e-visas and allow entry exclusively on biometric passports.

It would seem, much much more — only if war? But since the alarmist estimates have already heard enough, let’s move on to a positive Outlook — what will happen after?

At the time of the last coup and outbreak of civil war in Donbass, we had the following: a whopping $38.2 billion of trade between our countries, despite the fact that imports from Russia amounted to $23.2 billion, while Ukrainian goods to Russia was sold $15.1 billion Over the last three after the “revolution of dignity” in Ukraine’s foreign trade has more than halved, while trade with Russia fell by 78%, from 38 to the current 8 billion.e.

The main question of the last three years — whether Ukraine will be able to adjust to the European market, after retiring from the Russian? The answer is obvious. Despite all the efforts, exports to EU countries after signing an agreement on free trade zone in absolute terms but has fallen. And not only fallen since the “euromaidan” more than 4 times the hryvnia to blame. The explanation for this can be found interesting: for example, the Russian contractee so much struck by European farmers that they had all their products are first shipped to Russia, to sell on the European market, where its overabundance is already no space left for Ukrainian farmers (you’d think it was there). Obviously, it remains only to explain that the counter was invented, and be done with it.

All major Ukrainian industry, mostly located in the South-East of the country, was tied to delivery of energy resources either from the Donbass or directly from Russia. Because of the reference of unrecognized civil war called anti-terrorist operation these chains in the mass, was destroyed, and new ones are not there. As a result, some industry giants are simply eliminated, such as the famous Mariupol metallurgical Ilyich iron and steel works. Mass reduction took place in other major Ukrainian company — “Azovmash”. Actually stopped the work of the high-tech enterprises of Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk region (“Yuzhmash” CB “South”, “Motorsich”, etc.).

Because of the blockade of Donbass is lost extraction of anthracite, most of the chemical companies froze job because of lack of raw materials, the Odessa portside plant has again closed until better times. No less dramatic situation in engineering, which was previously oriented towards the Russian market and now is forced to stand idle without orders. All this was the consequence of the policy of European integration of Kiev, where the main slogan “away from Moscow”. Of course, for the layman it is presented as a result of the “war with Russia”, “aggression of the Russian-terrorist forces”, etc.

In these circumstances, the Russian business left to work in Ukraine, to urgently change the signs. After the ban on the work of the “daughters” of Russian banks with state participation, one of the largest banking networks in Ukraine owned by Sberbank, through its Latvian Norvik Bank bought the son of a businessman Mikhail Gutseriev said. Place prohibited Poroshenko Yandex is likely to take the Rambler, announced the urgent development of an Internet search engine for the Ukrainian market. Technically a UK citizen, said Gutseriev, of course, is irrelevant to the geopolitical interests of Russia, but in fact, how could the son of the owner of “RussNeft” to go against the will of Moscow?

Some experts sometimes suggest to break all remaining ties with Kiev, in the heat starting to compare the current state of Russian-Ukrainian relations with the Serbian-Croatian conflict. To break something is always easy, the question is how to rebuild.

Before my eyes another example is Latvia, the state, the degree of “anti-Russian” some of their leaders close to the current Kiev (but still not reach it). The most Russian of all the Baltic republics, with a third of the Russian population and a major center of Russian life in the second largest after Riga and Daugavpils, the capital of Latgale region. The old Russian city of Dvinsk (Borisoglebsk, Dinaburg), as a result of the events of the Civil war departed independent Latvia, is still considered a fertile ground for local “Russian separatism” local spill. NATO loves to spend Latvia a variety of exercises to “repel aggression”, while as a model often performs Daugavpils and Latgale, which “captured troops of the Northern neighbor.” Obviously not Finland.

One of the main political forces, invariably leading last years election, but the total number of votes and who was not admitted until the formation of the government, is the party “the consent Center”, based mainly on the sympathy of the Russian people. One of two of its leaders — for the third time elected mayor of Riga nil Ushakov is a former journalist of the Baltic Bureau of the First channel.

While in Riga every year on March 16 held marches “SS Legionnaires” that periodically crawl various local figures from the number of deputies, publicly comparing the Russian with the “lice”, and in the summer, the nationalists carried out paramilitary camps for youth — in General, the full set of attributes of a modern neo-Nazism. However, despite this, the trade turnover between our countries by the end of 2016 amounted to more than $5 billion, which is very decent for such a small country. The seaport of Ventspils remains key in the supply chain many goods to/from Russia, including primarily oil.

Probably only this logic can explain the stubborn desire of Ukraine despite all the talk about the “aggression Moscow” to keep the transit of Russian gas through its territory and after December 31, 2019 the expiration of the current gas contract. It turns out, war is war, and the transit schedule? Not to mention the fact that the lion’s share of petroleum products in Ukraine as delivered, and comes from Russia.

There is another example is Georgia, where, after 8 years of being Russophobe Saakashvili in power the new government in the face of the party Boris Ivanishvili makes careful steps, gradually restoring relations with Moscow. Or the same in Moldova, where for 8 years, since 2009, the Executive power is vested paraminski configured “European coalition”, and the President recently became a “friend of Russia” the socialist Igor Dodon, after which the ban on the supply of Moldovan wines to the Russian market was quickly cancelled.

All his “square” life Ukraine, with varying degrees of elegance is balanced between West and East, Europe and Russia, regularly skimming in different proportions on both sides. After 2014, this balance was broken. “East pole” has decreased dramatically, and roll in the West has become, obviously, less profitable.

But Ukraine — not even Latvia with Georgia and Moldova together. This is 40 million people and the territory comparable to France. Therefore, for the current Kiev the issue of preserving the balance of East — West is a matter of their own survival as a state and, therefore, sooner or later have to rebuild. And then, you see, and the relations between Nations will start to improve.


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