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Friday, March 23, 2018

Bulk out of fashion: why stopped growing the rating of opposition politician

Alexei Navalny loses a tempo: known policy, growing before leaps and bounds, since March has not changed one iota. According to recent data of “Levada-center”, despite two waves they organized protests, the most recent of which swept the country on June 12, rating of recognition of the head of the Fund of struggle against corruption, as well as four months ago, 55 per cent. Talking about these figures: that Alexey Anatolyevich’s time to change strategy and tactics, sociological inaccuracies of measurement, or even nothing to say? “MK” has learned, what do you think about the present and the near future of Alexei Navalny, a leading political experts.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

For reference, 6 years ago, in early 2011, Bulk knew, only 6 percent of respondents – an interesting rhyme. Three years later – already 45 percent. In March 2017 the rating of recognition peaked at 55 percent. And – froze. To the chagrin of supporters who obviously hoped for the continued takeoff, to the delight of the opponents, ready, presumably, to the same but with quite different emotions.

According to one version, it’s all about seasonal variation is that in summer people are less interested in politics. However, according to political scientist Valery Solovey, it’s not a seasonal factor: “In my opinion, this speaks to the fact that Alexei Navalny came out on a plateau of popularity. And at the same time that his strategy, in the form in which it was implemented, has already exhausted itself. In a certain age group, social group Navalny has already reached the peak of its popularity. Now he must embark on the “conquest” of other groups. And it needs to change its communication strategy. To change its content”.

Completely different situation to the President of the effective policy Foundation Gleb Pavlovsky: “Let’s not forget that the Bulk does not conduct regular competitive election campaign, the members of which are approximately equal. It is pointless to compare his rating to the ratings of other politicians, because it has only social network. Bulk task today is not to get ahead of Putin’s popularity, and to force Putin to open a scene of the campaign. To the process of politicization has reached a level at which the population wants a real competitive elections and then it will be impossible not to register. Then there will be sense to compare him with other candidates. Now these figures do not say anything about it, except that the TV no longer completely controls the minds of people. If it were not for social networking, if they do not play the same role, Navalny would not be 55 per cent of recognition and five”.

According to Pavlovsky, if we consider the actions of Navalny at an angle above goal, still he did everything right. In favor of the elected opposition tactics says in particular that the authorities had to go to his arrest and almost a month to keep behind bars. Locking the staffs in the Bulk regions. This suggests that Navalny has become one of the main factors of the presidential campaign. It is a great success”.

Pavlovsky does not consider a deliberate error and the decision of Navalny to take part in a debate with Igor Strelkov (Girkin): “Not to say that the Bulk of them will win, it is not yet known. The arrow is a weak opponent. Since it is impossible to have a conversation like, for example, Navalny spoke with Ksenia Sobchak. But it is correct – go for the clash with a strong competitor who in the eyes of many, including those who don’t know about Navalny as a politician, is the authority. This work on the extension of his fame in those circles that were closed to him”.

Valery Solovey holds diametrically opposed views on this subject: “Participation in this debate is connected with the feeling of Alexei, that he began to attract less attention. Discussion with Girkin he regards as good information about it. But it won’t work. First- summer, the second is an information about social networking and not for specialized media. The problem should be solved otherwise.” The expert is confident that Navalny will not be able to expand its support base: “the nationalists, the debate will have no effect. Those who are smarter and more flexible already support – or will support – Bulk. Choice they still and never will be. Liking same idiots counterproductive.”

In General, there are no pros for Navalny from participation in this duel is not visible. But the downsides are obvious. “The liberals will affirm your suspicions in relation to Bulk – predicts the Nightingale. – Meanwhile, their influence on public opinion much more than the nationalists”. In addition, he said, the debates will add new arguments of Kremlin “hawks”: “Any form of interaction, the more public, Bulk and small significantly exacerbate the suspicions of the authorities in the preparation of “color” revolution in Russia, and may encourage it to take decisive action against sung enemies.”

The arguments that say, significant. And the one and on the other side. Not going to judge who is more right, but better wait for July 20 – this is the date assigned to the battle in which converge two opposing today, the opposition region of the spectrum. And, of course, the results of recent polls. The main criterion of truth, as you know – experience.

The Bulk Business. Chronicle of events

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