Following the visit of Poroshenko in the United States the administration of Ukrainian President broke the flow of bravura messages for training “breakthrough solutions” between Washington and Kiev. Despite the unplanned schedule 20-minute meeting with trump Poroshenko, some Ukrainian media drew attention to its formality and emptiness.
However, some negotiations with the Ukrainian leadership in Washington was of a more meaningful character. So, at the first meeting with the new head of the Pentagon by James Mattison the head of the Ukrainian General staff Viktor Muzhenko again asked to provide “lethal weapon”. And now a few days later upon returning to Ukraine Poroshenko announced the decision on the provision of “defensive weapons” USA “to October”.
While experts estimate the dubiousness of this claim tend, to put it mildly, exaggeration and overstatements of the Ukrainian President in Donbas renewed fighting. Prisoner June 24, “bread of the world” had violated Ukrainian AFU fired on positions of LPR self-defense forces already on the first night. Thus, formally announced until late summer for harvest the world was thwarted before he could even really begin.
Against this background, there is information on unscheduled replacement of parts of the APU on the line of contact “dobrobiti” penal battalions of type “Aydar”, who actively fought against the civilian population of Donbas in 2014-2015. And on the eve of his visit to Washington, the initiator of war hysteria, the Secretary of the Ukrainian Council for national security and defense Turchinov told about the preparation for the introduction of martial law in parts of Ukraine instead of annoying all of the “ATO”.
All together and each separately lead to the idea that on the eve of the launch of his presidential campaign Poroshenko wants to try to return Donbas by force. Agreeing with the Americans and Europe, having officially weapons from Washington. This can Russia take?
Depending on the situation, in the case of irrefutable information on the preparation of an act of aggression against the civilian population of Donbas with the aim of destroying Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, it is impossible to exclude the possibility of a preemptive strike on military units of Ukraine.
In Kiev for a long time to sound like the “Croatian scenario of the return of the Donbass”. Let me remind readers that this scenario went down in history as “operation Storm” – from 4 to 9 August 1995, the Croatian army, together with the separate corps of the army of Bosnia and Herzegovina, invaded the territory of the unrecognized Republic of Serbian Krajina, with the aim of elimination and the accession of Serbian territory around the administrative town of Knin to the independent state of Croatia. The results of the operation was the expulsion from 200 to 250 thousand Serbs from their historic homeland in the silence of the international community and serious to support a lethal weapon Zagreb from Berlin.
The repetition of such operation – dream of Poroshenko and his entourage, but its performance depends on a number of factors – from the availability of the necessary military forces and armaments, ending the state of negotiations within the “Minsk agreements”. Subject to successful negotiations on the arms and complete disregard of Minsk with European connivance of Kiev, the leader may decide on a similar adventure. And that’s when the game can join the new unexpected actors from the Russian side.
Where is the limit of the possible “preventive reaction” – the question is more for the politicians than for the military. Politically, Russia may only be interested in the historical part of left-Bank Ukraine from Kharkiv to Kherson. And it is not necessary to feed illusions – the West sanctions are already made (not in order was introduced), Ukraine, Moscow has to deal with the containment of the collective West, and rather it be on the banks of the Dnieper river, than on the border with the Belgorod region. This is a normal reaction of any major state of civilization to protect its own living space.
Of course, the described scenario is not a guide to action, but, obviously, considered among other possible to implement at the very least a real threat to the civilian population and the people’s republics of Donbass. To prevent Kiev must sit down at the negotiating table with the DNI, LC and perform the notorious “Minsk agreement”.
Today, Europe has a good lever of pressure on Ukraine in the form of suspension of the visa-free regime. If Brussels suddenly interested in true peace in the Donbas, it would be very helpful. And before that Germany and Austria, who spoke strongly against the new package of US sanctions against Russia could offer a new platform for discussing the implementation of the Minsk agreement. So, for example, by someone else.
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