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Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Relations with Ukraine have reached the bottom in 2019


These days is the first visit of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in the United States under the new administration of Donald trump. Ukrainian President intends to test the waters on the subject of trump’s willingness to support his anti-Russian initiatives. Thus, on the eve of the visit, he showed incredible political splits — stating the need for “the reintegration of Donbass”, by the introduction there of martial law and the recognition of these territories formally occupied (which automatically must mean the definition of “occupier” with all the ensuing consequences). This gym is one goal: to determine the flags for the intersection can be obtained on the head from Washington.

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Since the farewell visit of Joseph Biden in January of this year in Kiev and the resignation of longtime assistant Secretary of state Victoria Nuland, Poroshenko pronounced deficit of care. In the absence of instructions from Washington, he decided that now they issued in Berlin, and, having started another escalation in the Donbas, rushed for a meeting with Merkel. The Chancellor, conscious of the extent of its involvement in the Ukrainian crisis and the political responsibility for it on the eve of the approaching elections, was forced to continue to play the role of “the last lawyer” of Kiev. But as soon as dawned the opportunity to reach out to Trump, the head of the Ukrainian foreign Minister Klimkin was urgently taken to Washington for a photo session on the background sitting at the Desk of the US President and 6 minutes (!) a meeting with him. Now for the long-awaited audience asked Poroshenko.

Obviously, Ukraine is not among the foreign policy priorities of the new us administration — not least the reasons that all the cream in it was taken by Obama and his team, and now this bloodless area is more in need of new, preferably generous guardian. But trump is not like that: he intends to count every penny of its foreign policy budget and more charity nor NATO, nor even in satellite States, have no intention of doing. Hence the requirement for all members of the North Atlantic Alliance to make regular payments into a common pot security, and the decision not to lend money to Ukraine, in addition as credit.

Realizing this, Poroshenko decided to go for broke and set up trump before the fact changes the status of the frozen conflict in the Donbas with two possible solutions. Or force, in the framework of the “liberation of the occupied territories” (then you need a lethal weapon), or “peacefully”, in the framework of the resumption of payment of pensions and social benefits (they need money), which is, frankly, hard to believe. But the main thing is to jump out of the extremely inconvenient for Poroshenko formula of the Minsk agreements, which are currently the only limiting factor in maintaining the fragile peace.

Introduced last week by the EU of a visa-free regime with Ukraine have created a new political reality in which the inevitable visas to Russia and, as a consequence, a serious breaking of a huge number of interpersonal relationships within our peoples. Only during the first week the border of Ukraine with the EU was crossed by more than 440 thousand Ukrainians. This could be a good reason to pressure Europe to Kiev on the topic need step-by-step implementation of the Minsk agreements, whether on the political will of Berlin.

Now the Kiev railway station in Moscow it is time to call the Chisinau — due to minimal number of Ukrainian trains in comparison with Moldovan. Announced by the speaker of Parliament a complete suspension of rail traffic between our countries may become a prelude to the appearance of visas. Discuss in the nearest future the introduction of Ukraine unilaterally, notifying the nature of crossing the border for Russian citizens (so-called “online visa”) will encounter a simple answer: the introduction by Moscow of the visa regime for holders of passports from the Trident. And then there is the millions of Ukrainian migrant workers working in Russia, will be faced with a choice: either to apply for a Russian work visa and a temporary residence permit (which is extremely difficult), or to go to Donetsk and to apply for a passport and the DNI, allows you to freely reside on the territory of Russia. And in this case, ordinary Ukrainians will get into his favorite Crimea?.. With this point of view, the visa regime will serve to strengthen the statehood of the young people’s republics of Donbass.

In parallel, the Donbass is building its statehood. We see already is the militia volunteers who came from all over the world to help the Pitmen to fight for freedom, the DNR-LNR formed his own professional army in numbers and weapons can easily compete with the APU. The people’s Republic become a refuge for many people persecuted for “thoughtcrime” Ukrainian activists. Sometimes the citizens of Ukraine even easier to draw up the documents of the LC than to get a temporary residence permit in the FMS of Russia. Unwillingness to provide Russian citizenship on the basis of “law of the soil” (that is, all the direct relatives whom were born in the USSR or the Russian Empire) for economic reasons makes it only possible for Ukrainians this option.

Therefore, Poroshenko and came to life: seeing for six months in DND and LNR operates a humanitarian program for the reunification of Donbass, announced the preparation of his version of “reintegration”. Another thing is that after three years of regular attacks unleashed by the civil war and entered the Kiev trade and economic blockade of DNR-LNR few Donetsk residents believe the Ukrainian President.

At the same time, oddly enough, he has supporters in Russia. Ready to defend the “victim of aggression”, they obviously are based on the principle of sympathy for any enemy of Putin. But history can not be reversed.

Continuing for the fourth year a serious crisis between the two countries, in my opinion, will last still long enough. And likely the “bottom” of our relations with the cessation of all contacts, including diplomatic, — be associated with the election campaign Poroshenko 2019. By the time of the people’s Republic of Donbass will be critical for any proto-state formations of the hell of growing up, and to speculate on their “reintegration” will be much more difficult. After that only can get true peace in the Donbas.

Read the material: “Poroshenko Plan for reintegration of Donbass provides the transition to the “military operations”

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