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Thursday, March 15, 2018

The “great war” of Ukraine and Russia: scenario remains likely

Again began the offensive of the Ukrainian army positions in Luhansk people’s Republic. APU from the early morning fire at the line of contact. Under fire from mortars and artillery fell Mahmuda, Groove, Kirovskoe, new building, Frunze. Ukrainian military used tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and infantry. From the onset of the Kyiv security forces began the evacuation of children from the settlements of Donetsk, Berezovsky and Golubovsky.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Since the beginning of the civil war in the Donbas, many proponents of the triune Russian (including Belarusian and little Russian) people are set, as it seems, the rhetorical question – is it possible to completely break the connection between our seemingly hard-stitched countries? And they themselves answer – Yes, of course. However, the reality of every day seeks to refute this starry-eyed statement.

Yesterday was the deadline to appeal the decision of city Council to rename the Avenue liberated Kiev from the Nazis General Vatutin Avenue SS obersturmbannführer Roman Shukhevych – Russian mayor of Kiev Vitali Klitschko signed the decision. The protest against this outrageous for any normal inhabitant of Kiev, only in social networks. To go out against thousands of armed neo-Nazis-“volunteers” is something no one dared. However, at the moment there is one topographic problem – prospects of Shukhevych and Bandera (former Moscow) connects Moscow bridge. And in addition to the adherents of the purity of the Ukrainian race is another force that is able to fundamentally solve this historical nestykovochka. This time.

Depreciation of fixed assets in Ukraine by 2020 will reach 100 percent. In practice, this will mean that all communications, roads (including Railways), bridges, water and gas pipelines in short, the entire infrastructure built during the Soviet era in the USSR, by 1 January 2020 may crash. Moreover, in the literal sense of the word. Since independence, Ukraine has updated only the road infrastructure and then only in “elite” areas (for example, Kiev – Odessa and Kiev – Kharkov), however, and this infrastructure is already rather spoiled. Last but not least it has been linked to the term of the contract “Gazprom” on gas supplies through the Ukrainian gas transport system to Europe until 31 December 2019.

But the Ukrainian authorities to that there is no case. Secretary of the Council for national security and defense of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov said about the possibility of a full stop of the train messages, and the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Andrew Parubiy outlined the prospects of introducing a visa regime with Russia.

At the moment these initiatives are postponed by President Clinton on the middle box, but for some reason I am absolutely sure that they will use in the short term, when you need once again to put out the fire of social discontent rapidly impoverished population. In other words, when the effect of the introduction of a visa-free regime with Europe in Kiev over, wait for visas with Russia.

Naturally, Moscow will not remain in debt and will introduce, finally, the visa regime for citizens of “friendly” States, as just recently stated the Minister of foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov. That, in my humble but deep belief, should have done much earlier. Since many Ukrainians like to hold a meeting for “bezviz” Europe, now let pomitinguem for “bezviz” with Russia may be ousted Poroshenko. After all, we have fed, in small estimation, not less than 5 million proud father of Ukrainian families, thus, ensuring income is still at least 10 million Ukrainians.

During a parliamentary visit to Syria officers of the Russian base in Hamima demonstrated by the Russian and European MPs the huge caliber mortars captured by ISIS (banned in Russia), who fired peaceful neighborhoods of Damascus. This brand unsighted shooting – mine given only the direction of movement, and the place of its exact drop Allah alone knows. In exactly the same way fighting the Ukrainian army – it became known yesterday that as a result of regular shelling settlements DND on the outskirts of Donetsk – the village of trudovs’ka mine killed a mother and severely maimed 9-year-old Vlad Zaichenko. The child is now a complete orphan (father died) to have a complicated surgery – fragments, in addition to the feet and hands, caught in the intestine and liver. As awful as that was, such stories happen almost daily, and nobody is responsible for those lives.

Against this background, of course, any talk about “the return of the Donbass in Ukraine” look like laughter through tears. After three years the so-called “anti-terrorist operation,” Poroshenko has done everything possible to cut off the Donbass, at least for the next 50 years – the lifetime of two generations, it will be remembered. That is why any talk about the unknown Ukraine “border control” is premature as long as Kyiv will not accept publicly the actual Confederation of Luhansk and Donetsk. But, as the Ukrainian President, the war is already decided to run for a second term, he can only escalate the tension. That is why the scenario “the great war” is still likely. Just as with visas, the Ukrainian government will heat up the atmosphere to the last, and in the end in the heat of a parliamentary-presidential campaign 2018-2019 rush “return” Donbass by military means or even the Crimea. Relying on the support of the West, trying to pre-negotiate in the Department of state, Poroshenko could take the risk to go at the last moment on such military-political adventure. And then Russia will have to apply the entire Arsenal of available means.

The Ukrainian crisis. Chronicle of events

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