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Sunday, March 18, 2018

Early elections in Britain: the country faces a “hung Parliament”

Thursday, June 8, in UK will be early parliamentary elections. The timing of the ballot, the need for which earlier the Prime Minister said Theresa may, did not affect either the explosion in Manchester or double terrorist attack in London. The stakes for the head of the British government, who heads Brickset (the process of exit from the EU), is extremely high. The loss of the ruling Conservative party’s leading position can lead to serious political problems and to the decline of personal authority may.

photo: ru.wikipedia.org

When in April the Prime Minister of Britain Theresa may unexpectedly announced that the country will hold early elections, scheduled for June 8, it sounded to many like a bolt from the blue. After all, even shortly before the British government argued that it was not going to hold early voting. An unexpected turn was associated with the Mei hopes that the new mandate will strengthen its position on the country’s withdrawal from the European Union on the background of lack of agreement between the parties in Parliament on the issue Brekzita. “If we do not hold General elections now, their political games will continue,” — said the Prime Minister on the opposition. “Every vote for the conservatives will make me even stronger,” said Mae, speaking about Brucite. Observers have linked the desire of the British government to hold elections before the deadline so that the Conservative party is at its peak of popularity, and the Theresa may is popular three times more than labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. If the conservatives will get into Parliament even more, the position of the head of the Cabinet at the exit from the EU will be strengthened.

But the preconditions for the triumphant victory of the conservatives at the moment — public opinion polls show that they may not get the majority needed to form a single party government. The more recent terrorist attacks in England has raised many questions to the intelligence services (and, hence, to the authorities). First of all: how is it that having information about the radical views of the terrorist attacks, the relevant authorities failed to prevent the tragic events?

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Why in the UK the ruling party faced the elections in a difficult situation? And what will happen to the United Kingdom if it does not receive a convincing majority? This “MK” told the Deputy Director of the Center for political technologies, Alexei MAKARKIN.

A “hung” Parliament is one of the quite possible outcomes of the election because the British society is wavering, feeling insecure, and any factor in these conditions may play a role. While we can’t say how, for example, will affect the mood of the electorate terrorist attack in London — unite there people around conservatives, or will they impose a claim for failure to provide security? The reaction may be any, and find out we may at the polls. We can recall the example of France, where shortly before the presidential election there was a terrorist attack — he, however, did not lead to an increase in support for the conservatives and the extreme right, occupying anti-immigrant stance. But there the authorities were socialists, they were responsible for security, as their candidate to that moment had no chance to win. That is, the situation was fundamentally different.

What happened in the UK? When in April, Theresa may announced an early election, the gap between labour was more than 20%, and the convincing victory of the conservatives seemed guaranteed. So the Prime Minister would have received a popular mandate for the continuation of the policy of “hard” Brekzita and would strengthen its credibility (previously may have been elected only internal party vote).

However, the conservatives failed to convince the electorate that they have a specific plan not only Bracito (just this question they worked), and on the use of pros that will get the country after an exit from the EU. In this overlap is another important factor — the conservatives had the temerity to include in its election program a very controversial clause stating that the housing of senior citizens being cared for by municipal employees welfare, after death, becomes the property of the municipality. In fact, the practice like this, the country already has. But the idea as policy provisions proved insufficient ethical for the British dubbed the initiative a “dementia tax”. On the one hand was the state, albeit in the form of municipalities, on the other — defenseless pensioners. According to experts, the situation with the controversial idea (for example, housing the deceased can then obtain the other needs in this elderly man), but the election campaign as the times require uniqueness. And the public sympathy in this case, of course, was on the side of pensioners; the conservatives have performed here in the role of technocratic, inhumane party, revive in memory the reign of Margaret Thatcher, which in the UK the attitude is very ambiguous.”

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— As a result, to predict what the outcome of the election, it is very difficult, — the expert believes. — Most likely, conservatives they win. But the question is whether they have the majority? Mae was counting on convincing the majority. Meantime, perhaps, or a weak majority, as it is now (330 of 650 seats in the house of Commons), or a “hung” Parliament.

In the first case, the conservatives still manage to form a single-party government. But they will be dependent on their not very loyal deputies who have a claim to may. In terms of when she has a good rating, it has been successful, these claims pale into insignificance. But if the Prime Minister will fail, if she wins, but not with convincing results, the degree of dissatisfaction may increase. It is enough to remember Margaret Thatcher for her similar disloyalty of deputies at the time was really bad, it is, in fact, toppled by her own party members. Therefore, even if not very confident of the success may have significant political risks.

If the conservatives will not gain a majority (326 seats), the situation will be a “hung” Parliament. Outwardly, it seems to be not very scary, is a precedent for it in British history, including when the Prime Minister was David Cameron. Then created a coalition with the liberal Democrats, which lasted the whole mandate of the Parliament, being, despite the contradictions, is quite stable.

But there are in such a situation two problems. First, the experience with the liberal Democrats proved to be unsuccessful for them: in terms of domination in the coalition, the conservatives failed to implement its program. Voters became disillusioned, and in the next election the liberal Democrats suffered a serious defeat, and the victorious conservatives formed a single-party government. That is to play the role of a Junior partner with the prospect of defeat in the next election campaign, probably no one wants…

The second problem, according to Alexey makarkina, is even more serious: who could theoretically enter into a coalition with the conservatives now? “A Grand coalition is initially impossible because you cannot imagine Theresa may and Jeremy Corbyn (labour leader) in the same government, is an ideological antipodes. If from the time of Tony Blair’s labour party in political terms moved to the center, with the Corbin, they moved strongly to the left.

Can recall the liberal Democrats, but first, they have the sad experience, which has already been said, and second is the main party that opposes the Brekzita.

Will be quite a lot of MPs from the Scottish national party, but the Scots are preparing another referendum on secession from the United Kingdom, and their priorities completely at odds with the interests of the conservatives.

There is a Party of Wales, but there about the same negative attitude to the conservatives.

An Alliance with Northern Irish Protestants of the Ulster unionist party is also unlikely, since this would mean a conflict with the Northern Irish Catholics.

Of course, there is also the independence Party of the United Kingdom, which was the only political force that consistently supported Brickset. But the policy may, who led the process of country’s withdrawal from the EU, almost destroyed the influence of the party.

If the conservatives get a majority, it can either lead to new elections or to facilitate the creation of a coalition opposing them. But the second option is much more difficult, since, as we have seen, the priorities of all parties is very different. Therefore, in the case of the formation of a “hung” Parliament it will be short-lived, and most likely will be held early elections”.

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Held in the last days before the election, public opinion polls generally promise success — but not overwhelming — conservatives. So, according to opinion research YouGov (30 may — 5 June), the Conservative party can count on the 42% of the vote, while labour — 38%. Party United Kingdom independence according to the “gaining” 4% (the same as the Scottish national party) and liberal Democrats — 9%. So a Tory victory may well be Pyrrhic victory. And then the question arises: was it worth it all to start early voting?


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