Syria has been in a large-scale offensive near the town of raqqa, the main stronghold of the “Islamic state” (IG – banned in the Russian terrorist group). On Tuesday, June 6, in the town from the East joined forces, “Syrian democratic forces”. SDS, in which the main role played by Kurdish, considered by Washington as the key to liberation of Raqqa, so not so long ago the US made a decision about supplying them with small arms and armored vehicles. It is assumed that the capture of the city will not only weaken ISIS, but strengthen the influence of the Americans in Syria. According to experts, if raqqa is liberated by US forces and the SDS, under the control of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it will not return. But there are other important aspects of passing of a military operation.
Reuters reports that Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim expressed the readiness of his country to interfere in the operation at Raqqa, if it threatened the interests of Ankara. Recall the question of the participation of Kurds in military action in Syria and support them Americans – a very sensitive issue for Turkey. Kurdish party “Democratic Union”, military units which are included in the SDS, is regarded by the Turks as a terrorist. Moreover, Ankara fears that, having won in Syria, the Kurds will increasingly operate on Turkish territory.
However, says the Deputy Director of the Institute for strategic studies and forecasts of PFUR Dmitry EGORENKOVto overestimate the “threat” Turkey is not necessary.
“From the beginning of the operation to capture of Raqqa, the United States relied on Kurdish, which, of course, not satisfied with Ankara, – the expert reminded. Turkish strategists apparently believed that the operation will be carried out by their forces, but their hopes were not justified – perhaps Washington’s intention wanted to show the Turks that not only they are key partners for US in the opposition in Northern Syria. But I do not think that this will be a kind of trigger for a confrontation between Washington and Ankara. It would be very bold to imagine, as the Turks, bypassing of obligations to NATO, begin to carry out their own operation, knowing that the Kurdish units from Raqqa in place koordiniruyutsya American military advisers. Threatening statements and Ankara will sound, as it was previously. The only difference is that now Turkey has to understand that after the capture of Raqqa by Kurdish units to retreat to their former positions”.
But do not forget that the main enemy now is the struggle, – IG. Unfortunately, there is a perception that the loss of their “capital”in Syria, the group immediately weaken and to kill her is not difficult. Such illusions, however, in vain.
“Maybe for part of the Syrian jihadists the liberation of Raqqa and may be a signal that ISIS in Syria has failed, – said Dmitry Egorenkov. But in itself, the capture of the city, in fact, does not solve any of the challenges before the international coalition led by the United States, and to Russia, and the regime of Bashar al-Assad. IG – network structure, and its binding to geography is very conditional.Not the fact that the key governing bodies of the group are generally located in the middle East. In fact, with the capture of Raqqa, little will change, except that the local population will be less to suffer. Although this aspect is very ambiguous. In this region part of the local population enough to use restraint with ISIS since the Islamists there do not behave violently, and because there the Sunnis are concentrated in some degree perceive the militants, if not as their own, as a partial close-minded”.
Concerns about the fact that, with the capture of Raqqa, the city will leave the orbit of influence and Damascus, and Moscow, have reason, also the expert thinks.
“Americans expect to be able to form a kind of enclave, through which you will be able to defend its interests in the post-war Syria – emphasizes Dmitry Egorenkov. – It is necessary to understand that for US the area from a geopolitical point of view is extremely important, as it allows virtually “splice” Northern Syria from Northern territories of Iraq. From this springboard, Washington will be able to influence Turkey, and Iran, and even change the balance of power in the middle East. The main question is, will it do it from the Americans? Are the Kurds not United in its attitude towards them. Therefore, the United States, of course, will work in this direction, but not the fact that achieved the desired result”.