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Thursday, November 23, 2017

Putin in percent: experts explain the mystery of the presidential rating


On leaving the hurricane week two authoritative sociological services reported a decrease in the rating of Vladimir Putin. Version of the poll, he was down 1%, according to research FOM — 2%. This gave rise to great hopes among the opposition and Putin’s supporters joked that bad weather. Whether the decline in GDP with only weather (after all, the President in our country, as we know, responsible for everything, including the climate), or are we witnessing a trend of loss of popularity, which will be developed? This “MK” asked a leading sociologist and political scientists.


photo: kremlin.ru

— We conduct research constantly. In early may, Putin was going to vote, 62% of respondents in the middle — 66%, after 64%. But if the fluctuations rating up no one responds (all used), then a slight downward movement, many are trying to make a trend. But it is not. For the last time, he is in the corridor from 58 to 67 per cent — said the “MK” head of the Fund “Public opinion” Alexander OSLON. — Is willing to wait for a steady drop of confidence in Putin. Well, maybe waiting for a clear trend. Now it does not smell. You need to pay attention that fluctuations in confidence to other institutions, usually synchronized with Putin’s rating. That is a rare thing to Putin dropped, and sociology of the state Duma or the government at the same time jumped.

— What is the reason of fluctuations in the rating of Putin in recent weeks?

— Have you tried a voltmeter to measure the voltage in the socket? Are you sure that you always 220 Volts? Try it and you will see that it is not. And sociology — are even more complex phenomenon than an electrician. In her constant numbers can not be. Each Respondent can be a mood today, and we’re simultaneously a half thousand people from different localities and social groups. This tool gives a very accurate picture, but it’s not magical.

— Let’s finish talking about “fluctuations in the outlet”. Sociologists see any real reason for the fall of Putin’s rating?

— I see no such reason. There is a mechanism or scientific law: when times are good indicators of the attitude to the authorities is reduced, and the “fateful minutes” — grow up. In that case, of course, if the government itself is not to blame for the onset of bad times. If it is not attributed to the fault and the social claim, the society konsolidiruyutsya around her. Now we see it, the law: Russia is in a difficult situation, and the government helps to survive hard times, and her for that, in General, are all grateful. For this reason, the fall of Putin’s rating is not expected.

According to your research there is at least one politician that might come close in popularity to Putin?

— Perhaps such a policy already exists, but I and our scientists it is not known.

The same issue of “MK” asked the General Director of the Center for political information Alexei MUKHIN.

Given the fact that in mid-may, Putin’s approval rating soared, it is not surprising that he rolled in the opposite direction. And still remained higher than in early may. In the foreseeable future, people who would start to catch up with Putin’s rating, can not appear. For objective reasons: we have one hundred percent of more than sixty consistently choose Putin. On all the others combined is less than forty percent. And in terms of external hostile Russian environment request a new person almost does not exist.

— Is it possible that the downgrade is due to the fact that Putin took a break and is silent on how will the next presidential election?

Well, if he refuses, it may affect. Now the opposite is true: the electoral group focused on Putin, especially actively demonstrate their support, keep in shape in every way give him to understand that his departure is simply impossible, and intrigue, this tone only supports.

— Well, what’s seven years later, when Putin will not be able to go for another term, and is comparable with him on the popularity of politicians is not there?

— When the story will require — they will appear. If you notice, now on the Governor’s positions employs a sufficient number of young, but Mature enough politicians. To ride people’s sympathy by using already well-developed political strategies and with the approval of Putin, they are quite capable.

— The real alternative to Vladimir Putin today, no. And actually not so important, increased his rating by a few percent or has fallen, it is important that all potential competitors far behind, — told “MK” the President of the Board of Directors of the Institute of modern politics Anton ORLOV. — In any match in the ring or on the street is always the main thing — to keep cool, not let emotions, whether fear or rage to get out of control. Given the fact that in the present confrontation between Russia and the West reached a high level of tension, it is important to remain calm and confident. This is taught in martial arts, it is taught in judo and Sambo, and President Putin is brilliantly successful. Feel that Russian voters, so support the President. Feel it, Western leaders, many of whom prefer not to aggravate the situation around Russia, not yet.

Read the story: Putin’s Rating has fallen, Medvedev has crippled the investigation of Bulk

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