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Sunday, March 18, 2018

Medvedev vs statistics: the Prime Minister will accelerate GDP growth

In the next three years the Russian economy will reach the growth rate above the world average. This optimistic forecast was presented by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to President Vladimir Putin. That is, the growth of the domestic GDP growth should exceed 3.5% per year. According to experts, to come nearer to these indicators, the government will have to cut taxes and repeal many of the non-tax fees. But, as practice shows, these measures officials are reluctant.

photo: kremlin.ru

Formally, Russia has emerged from recession. As informs Rosstat, in the I quarter of 2017, our economy grew by 0.5%. But half-percent growth is hardly a success. And it happened primarily at the expense of the companies — exporters of raw materials.

If you believe the words of the Prime Minister, positive changes in the economy will be more tangible to the end of 2017. “We hope that by the end of the year these changes will become more noticeable, including growth in gross domestic product which is projected on a more significant level, from 1 to 2%, as previously expected at 0.6%,” — said Dmitry Medvedev.

However, experts are skeptical about the forecasts of the Prime Minister. Not credible also promises the Prime Minister to withdraw the Russian economy in 2019-2020 growth rates above the world average.

“This will enable our economy to develop faster and to solve basic social problems”, — said Medvedev, representing the President of the government action plan for the years 2017-2025.

According to the International monetary Fund, the world’s average GDP growth reaches 3.5 percent. So now Russia is lagging behind by almost 7 times.

As the first Deputy Director of the Institute of contemporary economy Ivan Antropov, Russia is long overdue to develop the economy and reach at least the global growth rate. But that’s just how they will be achieved and how much money it will have to spend?

“According to the plan, which was presented by Dmitry Medvedev, we need to 2019-2020 year to get on the pace of economic growth is 3.5% for the year. Optimistic. As real disposable incomes continue to fall, the consumption is reduced, the 2017 in the calculation do not take. Well, if the economy will show at least some value above zero,” — says “MK” Antropov.

Did not have high hopes the expert and also for 2018. “The Central Bank promises to reduce the pace of monetary easing. This means that the available capital will be neither the producers nor the consumers. Objective factors in the acceleration of the economy in 2019 not now. Although, in principle, the acceleration potential of the economy for several years to come,” — says the expert.

But for this, according to him, we need concrete actions with hard deadlines. “During the first year, not more, necessary to carry out the anti-crisis plan, aimed at finding sources of funding reforms and social obligations. Then need a three-year mobilization plan to develop the industry. And then, as if neither wanted the government, can not do without the tax cuts and the abolition of many non-tax fees. Reducing the tax burden and ensuring available capital is that the success of the Russian economy”, — says Antropov.


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