France summed up the results of the presidential election. Of course, in fact, the country was only the first round of voting. But it is safe to say who will be the master of the Elysee Palace for the next five years. The ex-Minister of economy of France, “dark horse” Emmanuel macron, only in November last year for the first time, has declared his intention to run for President, got 23.75% of the votes, ahead of all rivals (three of whom, according to pre-election polls were serious competitors for him). His opponent in the second round on 7 may will be the leader of the far-right National front, marine Le Pen, which also showed an impressive – and record it to the result – 21,53%. However, as repeatedly noted by the experts, the electoral base Le Pen steady but not growing. And so the victory, most likely, will get to the Makron.
In addition to Him and Le Pen victory in the first round, claimed a member of the right-wing “Republicans” Francois Fillon and candidate from the extreme left movement “Rebellious France,” Jean-Luc Mélenchon. They scored 19,91% and 19,64% of the votes respectively. Fillon, defeated in the first round, has called on his supporters to vote on 7 may the Makron. The candidate of the ruling Socialist party, Benoit Hamon, like other French politicians, made a similar appeal. Mélenchon was restrained and vote in favor of the Makron their voters not called. However, it is clear that the electorate of the left candidate is unlikely to support marine Le Pen, representing the opposite political wing.
A recent important vote – be it the US presidential election or a referendum on British exit from the EU told us not to believe in the seemingly irrefutable predictions. Yes, now Makron leader – but if he can’t lose, Le Pen 7 may?
“To make forecasts in modern conditions is extremely dangerous, – said in an interview with “MK” head of the Center for Euro-Atlantic studies, Diplomatic Academy of the MFA of Russia Tatyana ZVEREVA. But if the possibility of the victory of Le Pen in the second round and there she is too small to discuss it. We see that the most serious French political forces have already announced support for the Macron. Moreover, we observed something similar in the elections in 2002, and the scenario will likely be repeated now.”
The current situation is very similar to the presidential campaign in France 15 years ago. Then in the second round also went the leader of “National front” Jean-Marie Le Pen lost to Jacques Chirac in the first round, only 3 per cent. However, the losing candidates urged the electorate to vote for Chirac as “the lesser evil”, which gave him a huge advantage in the second round. Le Pen lost, with less than 18% of the votes. Also important is the fact that the reputation of Chirac in 2002, was clearly worse than now Makron. The slogan “better a thief (referring to Chirac) than fascist (of course, Le Pen)!”.
“The popularity of marine Le Pen at certain moments the last election campaign were, according to polls, are higher than the index at the end of the first round – of the order of 30%. Macron also were long behind her, and, obviously, a crucial role was played by a number of factors contributing to his popularity, – the expert emphasizes. – He expresses the views of voters supporting the global model of the world, not wanting the erection of national barriers, the European borders. Are young people getting a job in France and abroad: they, like the macron, not only French, but also Europeans”.
It is useful to recall that the former Minister is fluent in English, which is probably even more attracted to him cosmopolitan countrymen. As you know, in France for a long time the preference was given to the native language, which played against the French a cruel joke. Now, many teenagers complain that poor quality teaching of English significantly limits their opportunities. Even officials from the French Ministry of foreign Affairs in conversation with the correspondent “MK” was acknowledged that the level of teaching and knowledge of the English language in the country leaves much to be desired.
Took effect and tactics of the candidate, by the way, her probation can be compared with the election campaign trump in the US. As with the American election, a significant role in France was played by the Internet technology.
“Movement Rules “Forward!” is not a traditional political movement, it is something new, a kind of Internet project, says in this connection Tatyana Zvereva. And reliance on the Internet, the network audience has served him well. Of course, mattered, and more conventional political techniques. Suffice it to recall the dirt on Fiona, the appearance of which also was on hand to Macron. However, this does not mean that his election will solve all your political problems, because this year France will be also parliamentary elections.”
According to Tatyana Zvereva, a significant role in the outcome of the first round was played by the fact that macron made centrist positions. This, however, was very risky tactic. When the ex-Minister has just declared his presidential ambitions, the experts noted that his participation in the campaign, obviously, will make a split in the right and left camp. But even last year, few people seriously believed that this “dark horse” will be the leader of the race.
Yes, and the political experience of ex-Minister cannot be interpreted unambiguously. On the one hand, the “child of provincial France”, it characterizes itself, the Makron, who came into politics from the outside, not trapped in her “inheritance” – he is certainly sympathetic to many French. On the other, it was during his tenure as Minister of the economy, the government has carried out a number of unpopular reforms.
Not spared his side and scandals – for example, some French journalists were charged with him in the guilt of spending budget money on their own needs. They say there is no smoke without fire, but then the luck turned away from the Macron – suspicions, not having received the evidence, hanging in the air. And the scandal of Fillon and demonstrative Pro-Russian statements and actions of Le Pen again “pulled” on them the displeasure of the electorate.
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