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Saturday, March 17, 2018

Marine Le Pen predicted “the trump effect”

The first televised debate of the candidates for the French presidency has shown the favorites of the race were the leader of “National front” marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel macron. Last tried to avoid discussing internal problems of the country, switching attention to the “deal with Putin”. So, the main opponent, Le Pen called on to prevent a rapprochement with Moscow. What can we expect from the future of the campaign?

“Rapprochement with Moscow ever for any country not meant to undermine the foundations of independence and sovereignty, because in building the bilateral relationship Moscow has always advocated mutual respect, respect for mutual interests and, above all, respect for mutual independence and sovereignty”, – said the press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov, commenting on the first pre-election debate of candidates in presidents of France.

“If you don’t understand something, unlike you, I don’t want to make a deal with Mr Putin”

As notes TASS, in the course of the debate the leader of the movement “On the March” Emmanuel macron were opposed to the rapprochement between Paris and Moscow.

“In this regard, of course, we are much more impressed by statements that talk about the need for dialogue”, – said Dmitry Peskov.

“Not to get close to Putin”

The candidate from the party “the Republicans”, former Prime Minister of France Francois Fillon, in turn, criticized the West for inconsistency in relation to the annexation of Crimea to Russia. Fillon compared it with the granting of independence to Kosovo, saying that “we have changed the border,” and recalled the right of peoples “to decide their own fate.” Some boundaries, according to the Fillon, appeared for the people is unacceptable.

During the debate, macron has hinted that France should not deepen contacts with Russia. “We have with US a long story. Together we have built peace in the world… Today I want to offer more independence. Not to get close to Putin. I want to build independence with responsibility, with a real European policy,” he said. Than closer ties with Russia threatens the independence, the macron is not explained.

It Makrona retorted the leader of “National front”, the presidential candidate marine Le Pen: “you Have such a talent, you said seven minutes, and I can’t even begin to summarize your thoughts. You said nothing, nothing at all! Absolute emptiness. Every time you take a word you say a bit about a bit about this, but never clear.”

“We have given Russia and Iran freedom of action”

“If you don’t understand something, unlike you, I don’t want to make a deal with Mr Putin. If you do not understand, then, unlike you, I want to hold strong, but responsible policy. Unlike you, I want to see a strong France in Europe,” said macron.

“A strong, but responsible… Strong… less and less!” – said Le Pen.

Fillon also pointed out that to combat terrorism it is necessary together with Russia and France instead “provided weapons to groups that, as it turned out, is an extremist”.

The candidate from the ruling socialist Benoit Hamon was noticed that it is necessary to adhere to international norms, but Fillon said that “Westerners” who believe that they “are allowed”, “drew new boundaries, including, of course, strength.” Meanwhile, Fillon has criticized Hollande for what is today France tries to “get everywhere”, although needs to share “the burden with its European neighbours”. “We have given Russia and Iran freedom of action,” said Fillon.

Argued, first of all, with Le Pen

The stakes were high for all applicants, but especially during the three-hour debate “sought to destabilize the two leaders, the far-right marine Le Pen and the centrist Emmanuel Macron”, commented on the debate, the Financial Times.

According to the survey edition, in support of the Makron expressed 26,5% of the votes against 26% Le Pen.

François Fillon, who may be accused of fraud because he employed his wife and children on fake jobs assistants in the Parliament, gaining only 19%. The other candidates – socialist Benoit Hamon and the candidate of the Left party Jean-Luc Mélenchon – are far behind, said FT.

Especially hot was the debate when the candidates touched on the topic of migrants. “I want to stop legal and illegal immigration – said Le Pen. I’m sorry, but we have nothing to offer them. It is best to tell them that they will not be able to use our benefits.” In addition, Le Pen said that “at least four militants involved in the terrorist attacks in Paris, arrived in France along with the refugees.”

Here between Le Pen and the Macron was a “tough debate,” said DW. According to Le Pen, “a few years ago the beaches are not met burkini” (bathing suit Muslim women), and now France faces the danger of Islamization. “Unlike Him, I do not advocate burqini”, she said. In response macron criticized Le Pen’s provocation, which aimed to split the French society. “So you fall into the trap of the terrorists,” stressed macron.

Three “backward candidates” – Francois Fillon, Benoit Hamon, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is also argued primarily with marine Le Pen, said DW. The intention Le Pen to stop the influx of migrants into the country socialist Amon noted that “the percentage of foreigners in France has not changed since the 1930s”. Mélenchon added that sharply restrict immigration is almost impossible. Fillon partly agreed that the need to introduce quotas for migrants, however, they should not apply to refugees, he said. Macron concluded that it is necessary to strengthen the border, but to accept all who needs protection.

As many refugees moved to Europrogram when candidates moved to the economic subject of discussion the main target of attacks was the macron, said The FT. Le Pen said that a number of its rivals associated with major capital and “defend the interests of the elites.” “Mr. macron, don’t take it personally”, she added. However, the Makron, who worked for the Rothschilds before he went into politics, immediately answered, that will not allow the competitor to defame. Amon, meanwhile, also said that candidates should not receive money from influential people, which will have as President, so the campaign Finance must be transparent.

Macron can be worse for Russia Hollande

Professor of international relations and foreign policy of Russia Yevgeny Obichkina believes that Emmanuel macron outlined during the debate, the intention to continue to adhere to its own foreign policy.

“Another thing is that macron spoke for the first time in its program publicly to a broad audience. And no one had any doubt before that the Makron, a staunch Atlanticist, a supporter of a United Europe, of human rights, which, in his opinion, in Russia it is not observed”, – said political scientist newspaper VIEW.

Obichkina believes that in case of Makron will come to power, it will adhere to even more stringent in relation to the Russian line than Francois Hollande. “It is openly Pro-American and Pro-British politician” – says Obichkina.

As for Fillon, the expert does not think that the debate will help him recover the lost after the corruption scandal position. “The voter will remain with him, but the lost will not return. The more that convincing evidence of innocence Fillon did not provide”, – explained the analyst.

“The victory of Le Pen possible”

The scientist, leading researcher of the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences Sergei Fedorov in comments to the newspaper OPINION noted that in the past debates the candidates have only confirmed the positions occupied before.

“Emmanuel macron, in contrast to being a supporter of the traditional Gaullist policy independent of France, and rational cooperation with Russia Francois Fillon and especially marine Le Pen, have spoken out as a supporter of tougher dialogue with Russia based on the difference values and wrong, from the point of view of Europe, external and internal policy of the Kremlin. America no one opened”, – explained the expert.

Of course, in the event of coming to power of Macron, according to the Fillon, some kind of rapprochement between France and Russia should not wait. “On the other hand, practice shows that many French presidents started out with sharp statements against Russia, but political realities forced them subsequently, adjust their positions,” noted Fyodorov.

As to the correlation of electoral forces, the political scientist noted that corruption scandals have significantly undermined the rating of françois Fillon. “Many of his supporters were hoping that Fillon will be able to recover lost ground after the debate. I have not watched the results of recent surveys, but I don’t think this debate helped him to substantially increase the rating,” added the analyst.

According to Fedorov, at the current stage in the second round, likely to take place marine Le Pen as the favorite and the leader of the first round, and Emmanuel macron. “The fight will be hard. In this theory, the victory of Le Pen, especially considering the “trump effect” is possible. Although in the second round, she will have a hard time”, – the expert believes.


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