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Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Anti-Russian hysteria unleashed Trump hands against China

China welcomes the future visit trump, said the head of China, XI Jinping, taking the Secretary of state’s Rex Tillerson. The state of relations between the major global powers, it is important for Russia, and it is clear that the barrage on the Chinese direction the tramp had finished. Whether it is configured in relation to Beijing is extremely tough or is it an external part of a much more subtle game?

On Sunday, Secretary of state Rex Tillerson flew from Beijing home, completing your tour of the Far East, during which he first visited Tokyo and Seoul. The American press trip most memorable was the fact that the Secretary of state is not took it with him – or rather, with him on the plane, there was only one representative of one of the online publication. This was not more than half a century.

“Ride si in Mar-a-Lago, even designed as a working visit, would look like something extraordinary”

And if you recall the history of U.S.-China relations, it does suggest interesting Parallels. The last time a high emissary from Washington flew to Beijing without the support of the press in 1971 – and it was Henry Kissinger, adviser to the President on national security. Then, however, between the two countries did not even have diplomatic relations. That trip’s closest ally, President Nixon was the first visit since the formation of the “red China” and the changed geopolitical reality, ushering in the American game in the triangle USA – USSR – China.

Now Rex Tillerson, who came to the state Department of Exxon Mobil, just decided not to take a tour in the far Eastern press, and the excuses made reference to the impending severe budget cuts of the state Department. However, the manner Tillerson is associated not only with its non-public at the last place of work, but also with the unprecedented attack from the media, which exposed the administration of the tramp in all possible directions. And international business is no exception.

Relations with Russia have become so toxic that the parties are not in a hurry even to meet each other – two months after the inauguration was held just one meeting at a high level, Tillerson and Lavrov spoke in Bonn. And then, there they were on the summit of “Big twenty”, and so would this meeting was not. But what you cannot do with Russia, it is possible with China – but here in this same period there have been a lot of interesting.

The free hand on the Chinese front is explained very simply – trump all the campaign is quite strong comments about China. That is, if Russia he was going to “get along”, China threatened to declare a trade war. After winning the election added to this is something else.

First, trump answered a phone call from the President of Taiwan, and then, defensively, and even put under question the principle of “one China” on which to base U.S.-China relations as such. Second, trump has been constantly repeating the thesis that “China is doing far too little to help the US” in the situation surrounding the Korean nuclear programme. Thirdly, Tillerson, and other officials have said that Washington will not allow Beijing established control over the disputed Islands in the South China sea.

The administration’s trump caught decent degree in the bilateral relationship – at least, so it seemed the media and narrow-minded analysts.

But in reality it was all just preparation for bargaining. Trump really wants to change very disadvantageous to his country’s trade balance with China and corny escalate the atmosphere before the serious conversation on fees, exchange rate of RMB and so on. No, of course, the United States and China have a major geopolitical conflicts, and the Korean Peninsula as the South China sea is an arena of struggle between them, but that’s only trump, naturally, was not going to abandon the principle of “one China” or doing other sudden movements that could lead to a crisis in bilateral relations. In Beijing, everyone knew it for a long time, especially because it’s been a few high-level meetings.

After February 10, when a telephone conversation trump and XI Jinping (then the us President said that based on the principle of “one China”), has already passed the heads of two mid – van And Tillerson in Bonn (in the same format as with the Bay) and a trip to Washington, member of state Council of China Yang Jiechi (former Minister of foreign Affairs). Jan meeting with trump was a meeting of a representative of si with the American leader – and the current visit Tillerson was a return visit of the emissary of the trump to the Chinese leader. Thus, in less than a month and a half, both sides were most of the way to the summit – and now we can speculate about when and where it will take place.

Apparently, trump was Stakhanov plans – if you believe the leaks, he invited XI to visit him in Florida on April 6. But this information leaked (it being understood that the enemies of the trump) before the trip Tillerson, and now there is an official, albeit vague comments on both sides. So, in the message about the meeting of the Secretary with the President of China said that Tillerson, conveying the message of the trump, I noted that the US President “appreciates” contacts with the Chinese head of state and he expects the meeting the two leaders “will be held as early as possible” and trump is ready “to visit China”.

In the message Xinhua stresses that:

“U.S. Secretary of state noted that D. trump pays special attention to XI Jinping, hopes for a speedy meeting of the heads of the two States and the opportunity to visit China.

The American side is ready in the spirit for the lack of conflict and confrontation, mutual respect and mutually beneficial cooperation to promote the development of relations with China to continuously deepen mutual understanding, enhance bilateral coordination and cooperation and jointly meet the challenges facing the international community, said Rex W. Tillerson.

XI Jinping instructed R. Tillerson to convey his greetings to D. Trump and welcomed future US President’s visit to China”.

Translation from diplomatic – tell the President that we are waiting for him in Beijing. But a trip to Mar-a-Lago, trump’s residence, will not take place, not only because si don’t need to hurry – in the end, it is in the US now, it inflames the inner turmoil and not in China. No, the case is different in respect of diplomatic decency (and they – the most important part of the country’s prestige and, by the way, the indicator of self-esteem). There is a legal rule, the visits of heads of States to one another alternate. And the name of the President, that is, the change of head of state, it doesn’t matter – the important thing is that you need to drive in turn.

XI Jinping was in the United States on a state visit in the autumn of 2015 – after which Obama arrived in China only at the summit of “Big twenty”. But that doesn’t count – not the format of bilateral relations. That’s why si and said Tillerson – tell Trump that now it’s his turn. Nothing personal – the relationship of States above relations of their leaders. The Chinese own pride, and tradition are of great importance.

Trip si in Mar-a-Lago, even decorated as a business, working visit, would look like something extraordinary. That is, would show that China needs the US more than they in it. But it is not – and in that case, if we are talking about the state, and then, if we are talking about trump and the XI Jinping.

So now the Trump or have to wait until the beginning of July, when in Hamburg will bring together the heads of the “Big twenty”, or to go to China. It is likely that he will choose the second option – in part because I do not want to postpone in the middle of summer two very important for him meeting with Putin and XI Jinping. In addition, while preparing for the summit in Hamburg would have been for trump and his entire team into a living hell – would have a few days to hold four major events (G20, meeting with European allies plus meetings with Putin and XI).

However, there is still the probability that us-Russian relations out of range of the shelling and trump will be able to legally meet with Putin in any third country.

Or to go to Moscow – in the Protocol now all of the American President to come to us (last visit at the highest level was in 2010, when Dmitry Medvedev was Barack Obama). But to see trump in Russia in the coming months will not work – because it is terrible even to imagine what the headlines would come up with on this trip the American press.


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