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Thursday, January 18, 2018

The dream of Europe of a separate nuclear shield naive, but dangerous


European officials are considering a plan to build its own nuclear programme of the EU. The American media argue that it is necessary “to protect the post-war order in the era of the presidency, trump and a resurgent Russia.” The main supporters of the project – the Germans and the poles. Why is there this idea that only recently seemed insane?

The so-called plan Europadeterrent (“European deterrence”) may obtain second wind. It provides for the reassignment and conversion of nuclear potential of France and Britain with the aim of creating a European nuclear shield. However, the main lobbyists of this plan are a number of young German politicians and the American press, and their more senior and influential comrades yet shy.

“We are at the beginning of the story, which may be the beginning of a great friendship, and registration of divorce by signs of the old European empires “

It is believed that the German supporters Europadeterrent (in particular, it analyst at the Council on foreign relations Jan Puglian and Bundestag Deputy from the Christian Democrats Roderich Kiesewetter) would like to create at the expense of its allies in NATO and the EU, an independent nuclear capability, which would cover Western Europe in that case, if the administration trump will refuse the world’s major functions of the United States – protect Europe from the Russian bear. Germany itself has no right even to hope for the appearance of her own nuclear weapons, but trying to manipulate the neighbors who have both the right and the weapon itself.

In the US, didn’t actually incite the Germans to such a development, rather undecided until the end. The priority for the new us administration not to increase the weight of European nuclear weapons and not to create a separate doctrine of European nuclear capacity, and in forcing European NATO allies to increase military spending. Consent for this is that Express only a tiny potential of the country, such as Estonia, whose contribution to the defense of the unit cannot be overemphasized. Germany is the first economy of the continent – on the contrary, does not show special desire to increase the military budget and such a simple way to shift responsibility for the defense of Europe for historical opponents – France and the UK.

Let’s start with the fact that to change the status of Germany non-nuclear, nuclear is almost impossible – it threatens the collapse of the entire postwar system of world order. In addition, you need Cordiale (“cordial of antant”) between Berlin and Paris, it is theoretically possible only at preservation of Angela Merkel, his office and the appearance in the Elysee Palace, Emmanuel Makron. But even in this situation, Europe should be a huge extra money that could be spent on some increase or (in the British case) the resuscitation of the nuclear potential. And the extra money there is not expected.

The return of the French nuclear potential under the control of NATO occurred in a “heart friend” Nicolas Sarkozy. Previously, the French military structure followed the precepts of Charles de Gaulle and Brussels is not directly obeyed. How would Gaullist Sarkozy of the French sovereignty was compromised and translated French nuclear weapons under NATO command. But the problem of the sovereignty of France – her personal business. The more important question, how can be effective the theoretical system of an independent European nuclear safety.

Now all over Europe (primarily just in Germany) stuck a small American air force base, where nuclear warheads are stored, which can be quickly hung under the bombers and activate. In the past two years, the U.S. air force began to train on flights with nuclear warheads on German pilots of the “Tornado” that looks rather strange – German soldiers should not have access to nuclear weapons. However, the Americans are coming is a flagrant violation of the post-war agreements, retroactively rehabilitating Germany in its military capabilities.

While in Germany this rehabilitation meets some resistance companies. And during NATO operations in Yugoslavia, German troops were limited in movement, because in some cities and districts of Bosnia tanks with black-and-white crosses on the towers was seen as a direct relay of the events of 1940-1944 years. Such allusions to nobody in Berlin is not necessary. For this reason, the German units are not involved in a widely publicized “strengthen the defense of Eastern Europe” (primarily Poland and the Baltic States).

By the way, an additional motor the idea of creating their own nuclear systems in Europe are namely the countries of Eastern Europe (especially Poland), nauskivaya German parliamentarians and scientists with the Catholic surnames in France and the UK.

The trouble is that the total nuclear capacity in Western Europe the weather does. It even to count it is not necessary, as Western Europe is simply not able to survive the first 15 minutes of the nuclear-conventional war. Even if French submarines – carriers of nuclear weapons (number four) will be released in a safe zone at this point will no longer be France. The same story will happen with the British submarine fleet with the amendment that at the moment he is generally incompetent – none of the British submarine is not on duty. All of them are in poor condition, which led to terrible scandal, because the command of the fleet some time kept a new Prime Minister Theresa may in the dark about such a unique situation in history of a great British fleet.

Simply put, the total West European nuclear capabilities in the scale of conventional armed conflict is so small that to consider it as an independent unit naively. Nevertheless, Germany insisted that its Western neighbours have made collective suicide, having begun to form an independent nuclear command.

In Soviet times, the whole territory of Germany (FRG and GDR) were automatically regarded as the field of battle, and with the characteristic scorched result. Everyone knew it, including the leadership of the GDR, which tried to bring Central Europe from a possible area of direct collision of two military blocs, which led to rather specific relations between Moscow and Berlin. Now the geostrategic situation in Europe is somewhat different, but the traditional German fears remained. And Berlin so here’s a tricky way – through an appeal to the position of the administration trump which haven’t really expressed – shifts the responsibility of the Britons and the Franks. All information about these plans comes from the German “breakdown” of political scientists like Fraulein Puglian, Polish administrators and American journalists, which in turn refer to the first two categories.

Here is someone who provokes is a separate issue. The New York Times is quite able to initiate a scandal, to probe the position of the European partners and the European partners are ready to provoke the Americans to clarify their position – and at the same time to incite each other on a strange and an ill-considered strategic moves. Who will win in the end, replay is not clear, you need to wait a bit. We are still at the beginning of the story, which may be the beginning of a great friendship, and registration of divorce by signs of the old European empires of the XIX century.

source

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