Leaders DND and LNR Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky has promised in case of failure of their conditions to introduce external management at all enterprises of the Ukrainian jurisdiction operating on the territory of the republics. How the situation will develop, if Kiev does not fulfill the requirement of the ultimatum and will not remove the blockade of Donbass by “ATO veterans”?
The heads of the DNI and LC put forward an ultimatum to Kiev on the lifting of the blockade of Donbass. At a joint press conference by Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Carpenter, said: “We are forced to announce that if to 00.00 Wednesday (1 March 2017) the embargo is not lifted, we will introduce external management at all enterprises of the Ukrainian jurisdiction, working in DND and LNR”.
“People who appeal to common sense, Ukraine is in the minority. So it is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to respond to the ultimatum”
In his statement, Zakharchenko and Carpenter also noted that the country will rebuild all the production processes and to Orient them to the Russian market and other countries.
Transport blockade of Donbass, which Kiev is conducting with the use of radicals leads to the disruption of many businesses in the region. This directly contradicts the spirit and letter of the Minsk agreements, the Ukrainian government is thus demonstrating its inability to take care of the citizens, said the leaders of the republics.
In Kiev “do not believe”
The reaction of the Ukrainian authorities did not at the highest level. “This is an attempt to scare us,” – said Ukrainian Deputy Minister on the issues of “temporarily occupied territories” Georgy Tuka (July 2015 to April 2016, the head of the military-civil administration in Kiev-controlled part of the Luhansk region).
“We are talking about strategic enterprises, which engage in vertically integrated companies and are taken as a separate link, in the chain production cycle. If this chain to break, to sell products that are producing these enterprises to support their livelihoods, it is not easy. And the products of these enterprises not in demand in Russia – quoted Tuku Ukrainian portal InfoResist. – If to speak about those same mines, where their coal through the roof, don’t know what to do, close the mine. So let him talk anything. I don’t believe it”. While Tuck is convinced that the authorities will manage to solve the issue with the blockade.
We will remind, on February 22 amid Kiev organized a blockade of Donbas, Moscow has decided to begin deliveries of coking coal directly to the DNI and the LC. Blockade pursued by the radical Ukrainian nationalists, including members of Parliament, under the slogan “it is impossible to trade with the separatists.”
20 Feb stopped because of the blockade Yenakiyevo steel plant and the enterprise “Krasnodonugol”, included in a mining and metallurgical group “Metinvest” Rinat Akhmetov. After the organizers of the blockade stopped traffic on the stretch Yasinovataya – Skotovataya, import raw materials and export of finished products from these plants was impossible. Now you can risk losing about 150 thousand inhabitants of the DNI and LC.
In Ukraine, the blockade of Donbass “ATO veterans” stopped the supply of the Donetsk coal-anthracite, jeopardized the production of electricity at the largest CHP in the country. February 16, there is in force emergency measures in the energy sector of the country, which will operate during the month. Industrial enterprises were recommended to reduce the electricity consumption up to 10% at peak loads in the evenings. Two days earlier, it was reported that coal reserves in Ukraine was only for 14-45 days, and to buy coal only in Donbass and Russia.
“The war party wins today”
The founder of the movement “Donetsk Republic”, former Deputy Prime Minister of the DNI and the ex-Chairman of the national Council of the Republic Andrey Purgin in an interview with the newspaper OPINION stressed that “highly doubt” in the determination of Kiev to lift the blockade.
As the Donbass is getting closer to Russia”the Situation prokontroliroval. Today the trend is worsening, statement of Arsen Avakov (the “specific plan for the return of Donbass and Crimea” – approx. OPINION), and all others indicate that the “war party” now, a populist is winning,” – said Purgin.
The source expressed doubt that the European Union, which earlier called on Kiev to solve the problem of the blockade of Donbass in “priority” (and, in particular, to immediately stop the blockade of the railway communication, in order to avoid energy crisis in Ukraine itself), will be able to influence the Ukrainian government.
“Brussels can say anything, – said Purgin. But the Ukrainian domestic situation is quite unique: there are a number of radical groups with whom no one fights”. Even if the railroad tracks are three to five “blockade” from the “veterans of the ATO,” do not touch them. Since the elimination of the Amateur “blockade” is a question of political will, “it turns out that the internal political will from Kiev not to,” said Burgin.
“People who appeal to common sense, Ukraine is in the minority. So it is unlikely that Ukraine will be able now to the ultimatum how to react,” says the source.
The issue of introduction of external management, of course, is difficult, he added. There should also be a certain political will, and a lot depends including from Russia, will take advantage of there schemes “Euroregion” (included in the practice of the EU form of international integration, based on close cooperation of two or more provinces located in the border areas of neighboring States – approx. OPINION). Also the question remains how successful it will be done administratively, you get to do in a short time. “There is a very big responsibility rests on our government structures,” – said Purgin. “But really, from my point of view, anything impossible does not happen”, – concluded the source.
“The transition to the jurisdiction of the DNI and the LC is constantly”
That Kiev is unlikely to respond to the ultimatum and, if anything, just “complain to the UN, EU, OSCE, where there he still complains”, I’m sure a political scientist, President of the Center for system analysis and forecasting Rostislav Ishchenko. In conversation with the newspaper LOOK, he explained that if you just enter the external management, then the external control imposed by the DNI and LC will have to arrange the payment of taxes to the budget of Ukraine. And if you change jurisdiction, then the company will begin to pay taxes to the budget of the republics.
“However, the change of jurisdiction of enterprises is not such a simple matter. To work, need access to foreign markets. As you know, the DNI and the LC is not legally recognized, against them and the enterprises under their jurisdiction, the sanctions”, – said the analyst. So for a long time, many enterprises remained in the Ukrainian jurisdiction, pay taxes to Kiev budget in order to supply its products abroad. “This production is formally exported as a Ukrainian, – said the expert. – The compromise was for all not very pleasant but necessary.”
If the blockade began, at least a portion of the products of the DNI and the LC, which went through Ukraine, will not be able to get to worldwide markets. “Meaning in this case, payment of taxes to the Ukrainian budget is absent, – said the expert. Because you still need to rebuild the logistics, to get somehow through Russia through South Ossetia and so forth.”
Many enterprises in the Donetsk and Lugansk already do, because “the process of moving from Ukrainian jurisdiction to jurisdiction of the DNI and the LC is constantly,” said Ishchenko. Just beginning are the markets or ways to retain the old markets, and then there is the process of changing jurisdictions, he added.
“Waved about the beginning of the nationalization has been given”
Donetsk political analyst Roman Manekin previously told the newspaper VIEW that the economy of the Donbas, its coal and metallurgical complex was the main exports of the whole of Ukraine. But after 2014 is a situation in which political power was in the hands of the DNI, and the economic remained in the jurisdiction of Kiev.
“If economic leverage, too, came under the jurisdiction of DPR, the company would be deprived of economic subjectivity and would not be able to enter into contracts with suppliers in Ukraine, we would have lost markets – Mariupol and Odessa. For three years the authorities of the DNI was forced to reckon with the presence on the territory of the enterprises which they do not obey and do not pay taxes. I think in the near future will be the introduction of external public management at the largest enterprises of the DNI, creation of a management of holding”, – said the expert, adding that “the go-ahead on the beginning of the nationalization has been given”.