Russia and the Donbass legalize their relationship. Recently made some demonstrative steps like recognition of documents of the DNI and LC, and now the coal industry preoriented republics from Ukraine to Russia. Does this mean that the Kremlin has given up on Ukraine and headed for the accession of the Republic?
The third anniversary of the first collapse of Ukraine, we meet with mixed feelings. On the one hand, Crimea is gone to Russia, and part of the Donbass fights broke out under the authorities of Kiev, while hanging and uncertain, but still mainly in non-belligerent position. On the other hand, the process of reformatting of Ukraine are going slower than had been expected in the spring of 2014.
“The economic gap between Ukraine and Donbass not constitute a change in the policy of Russia in “the Ukrainian direction”
The power struggle between oligarchic clans, disintegration, disillusionment with the “European choice”, the economic crisis and the degradation of society – all this is happening not with the greatest speed. If processes were faster then last year would come a new Chapter in the history of Ukrainian crisis – that is, the new Maidan.
Diverting attention to the opposition of the “Russian threat”, focusing the “elite” in the West, primarily the us, patrons, fatigue Ukrainian society from shocks – all this is provided by Petro Poroshenko, the preservation of power in Ukraine. But lately, there are a number of indications that the relative truce in the Ukrainian government ends – and different clans and groups are willing to come together in a new round of struggle for power.
This moves as the accumulated internal stress, and the changing external environment – the importance of Ukraine to the West and primarily the US sharply reduced. States and Europe are preparing to change its policy towards Russia and the Ukrainian “elite” already feels like its going to “throw”. No, the West will not surrender Kiev and Moscow, but he will no longer need the services of the Ukrainian political class of demonizing Russia. And without this, the Kiev elite loses its stability and the prospect of European integration no, play “we are the shield of Europe on the path of Russian tanks” also will not work. Own people, of course, is mainly occupied with search of earnings – that of the “square” that in Europe or Russia – but still more and more dissatisfied looks on the Kiev government. Before the presidential election two years – but Poroshenko has long been unpopular. Who will replace him, now is not the main issue – more importantly, whether this will happen peacefully and dosidev whether Poroshenko until 2019? The chances a bit.
Including because Kiev will have to somehow pretend that he complies with the Minsk agreement – and this leads to accusations of treachery and a new Maidan. Poroshenko teetered on the brink for the last two years – like the Donbass will return, but any laws will not accept. Soon, with the change of the position of the West, and this opportunity closes. Need something to do, but any action makes the situation worse. Tymoshenko, and other “opposition” just waiting for the moment when Poroshenko will be to launch an assault on power.
In this situation, there is activation in the relations between Moscow and the Donbass is not a coincidence. What does Moscow do? First, it legalizes what is already there, but not officially – for example, recognition of documents of the DNI and LC. The second step it comes to nationalization of industry in the Donbas – the actual severance of economic ties between the breakaway republics and Ukraine. The reason for this gave Ukraine itself is the blockade of the train tracks, pursued by Ukrainian “volunteers” had hampered the delivery of coal, and mines and metallurgy of the NPT need to look for other suppliers and buyers.
The rupture of a single production cycle – are really heavy thing is not beneficial to either the Donetsk or Kiev, but what if the situation is deadlocked? Poroshenko can not disperse the “blockade” – he was immediately accused of treason and the promotion of “the trading with the enemy”. The DNR can’t wait for the enterprises of the continuous cycle need uninterrupted supplies. The gap will hit the Ukrainian economy, and the economy – and, most importantly, will lead to almost complete separation of the two parts formally still a state. That is, the separation of the DNI and LNR from Ukraine will be final and irrevocable?
No, it won’t. Because they are so divided with war and blood. The coal trade was a forced – but once it decided to sacrifice the hopes (and pointless) to stifle the Donbass, the Republic will survive without her. Of course, with the help of Russia – and where will be the supply of the Donetsk coal. The economic gap between Ukraine and the Donbass will happen soon – but that does not mean change of policy of Russia in “the Ukrainian direction”.
Russia will not recognize the independence of the republics, nor to take a course for their joining to itself. Because Russia does not refuse from the struggle for all of Ukraine – and the legal recognition of the independence of the DNI and LC significantly complicated the operation to return the “square” part of the Russian world.
Russia does not recognize the Republic not because they do not want to worsen relations with the West – in fact, in the struggle for the gathering of the historical Russian view of civilizational and geopolitical enemy not just ignored, but is just another confirmation of self-righteousness.
No, Russia will not recognize the office of the DNI and the LC because it is important the whole of Ukraine, it is worried about the fate of all the Russian and Ukrainian people living in the “square”. Moscow is fighting for the whole Ukraine-little Russia-the new Russia turned to Russia, to wrest it from the hands of anti-national, corrupt and Pro-Western elites – and this struggle is a question of preservation of the Russian civilization as such.
Yes, a unified Ukraine is not – and never Donbass will not be ruled by the current Kiev political elite. But the current Ukraine, formed in February 2014, is a temporary and transitional education, it will change and transform under the influence of both internal and external factors. And in these processes the active part will take Donbass under the protection of Russia.
And now embarked on the path of industrial integration with Russia is that people in the Donbass can live, not survive. Russia has enough forces, will and strategic vision in order to simultaneously conduct the integration of Donbass and the fight for Ukraine – even more so that all links in the same chain.