A quarter century ago in the Dutch Maastricht was signed the Treaty establishing the European Union. 7 Feb 1992 can be considered the birthday present of a United Europe, formed in forty days after the death of another Union, the Soviet. Whether there is now in Europe a place for two unions – and what in this sense, the future of the EU?
The EU celebrates its 25th anniversary – and not because the Maastricht Treaty formally entered into force only in November 1993.
“To survive, the European Union need to become independent”
The atmosphere in the EU is not a holiday, and there soon will celebrate the upcoming 60th anniversary of another Treaty of Rome, which will come on March 25. In 1957, in the Italian capital was established by the European economic Union – the predecessor of the EU. But he still would have remained the economic Union, if not for perestroika, the collapse of the socialist camp and the collapse of the Soviet Union. Himself swing on the creation of a single European state emerged after the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Eastern Europe, which made these plans feasible. And the collapse of the USSR enabled and try to enable the EU even part of the Russian world. But to my 25-year anniversary of the European Union came in a very bad shape. And internal alignment, and external circumstances do not give grounds for optimistic forecasts.
Although after the Second world war, Europe was divided between two powers – USA and USSR – the question of its integration into a whole, not left off the agenda. The idea of a United States of Europe was beneficial too serious forces of integration began almost immediately. It is clear that excluding Eastern Europe. It was under Soviet influence and were merged into a single economic, geopolitical and ideological space with the Soviet Union. But neither the Council for mutual economic assistance or Warsaw Pact did not claim that they are a model for the future of a United Europe “from Lisbon to Ekaterinburg”. But established in the West of the integration Association it themselves, and so positioned – meaning, however, Europe without Russia.
Yes, of uniting all of Europe is not dealt with in the Treaty of Paris establishing the European coal and steel community, signed in 1951 by six countries. But a few years later, when the same “six” signed the Treaty of Rome establishing the European economic community, it was implied. Then, in 1957, emerged and the European Parliament – it does not matter that it was presented only all the same six countries, “European -“: Germany, France, Italy and the three Benelux countries (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg). By the mid 80s the EEC was enlarged twice already – it consisted of 12 States, including the UK. The idea of a United States of Europe became increasingly popular from the common market and the common values shared state. And then the Berlin wall fell – United Germany, collapsed first “Eastern bloc”, and then the Soviet Union.
A dozen members of the EEC met in Maastricht, when the ruins of the Soviet Union only started to smolder and established the European Union, more precisely outlined path. Single European state – not as the heir of the Frankish Empire and the Holy Roman Empire of the German nation (which existed, by the way, until the 19th century), and certainly not as the implementation of the plans of Napoleon or Hitler. No, a United Europe as the successor of the “humanistic ideals” (even the mention of Christian was quickly set aside), shared heritage and the desire to ensure that there was no more war. That is, the United Europe as a project of reconciliation of all with all, first and foremost, of course, the Germans, French and British – and they are already dancing to dance of all other Nations. London always stood slightly apart, which gave rise to serious suspicions about the fact that the entire project of a United Europe need him just in case if it is managed by him.
Indeed, to reconcile the German and Anglo-Saxon hegemony ambitions could only be the case if the European Union remained in a subordinate position in relation to NATO. Then geopolitical dominance of the US and the UK did not allow the EU to emerge from the economic to the geopolitical level. The only question was how long the Anglo-Saxons will be able to keep the German locomotive under control – at some point the process of transformation of the EU into a single state would lead inevitably to a finding it full of true sovereignty. That is, to the emergence of a “United Europe” with the German heart and muscles. Yes, technically “peaceful and fluffy”, but still absolutely unacceptable for the Atlanticists. And now this fork in Europe was by 2007.
By this time the first stages of integration within the European Union was passed: there was a single currency controls. It was time to prepare for the transition to the real destruction of the national States – that is, to transfer all powers to the national government to the level of a European government. But the EU has by this time grown afraid. It was already 27 member States (the latest, the 28th, was accepted in 2013). The level of integration between them was completely different – the inclusion of the countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic States answered mostly geopolitical, and not economic interests. And not a United Europe with the capital in Brussels and atlantist of NATO stationed in the same city. Eastern Europe had to be quickly brought under the umbrella of the West – first the EU and then NATO.
It is clear that not all new member States of the EU meet the criteria of European integration. Not all of them were included in the Euro zone. And most importantly – the EU has begun dealing with the post-Soviet space. That is not only the Baltics, but also Ukraine, Moldavia, Georgia and Armenia had become part of the European Union. Pieces of Russian civilization and the zone of immediate national interests had to be swallowed and digested. But this did not happen.
And not because of resistance from Russia – of course we tried to stop, but that was not the focus. Ruptured the very belief in a United Europe – and national elites, and the population of the European countries. The monster that began to grow in Brussels, caused too many complaints, and among “the provinces” United States intensified the friction. The Germans, of course, a great nation – but neither the French nor the Italians are not ready to live in managed by Germen government. And this all would have it – the history of Europe such a thing, that no collect, you still get the “German Reich”. It can be called “Middle Europe” or “European Union” is still the core and driving force would be the German nation, which is a natural unifier of Europe.
There is nothing wrong, this is a reality. In the end, there were eight centuries of the Holy Roman Empire of the German nation, uniting much of Western Europe under the rule of one Emperor. In the end, it is the business of Europeans, as they agree between themselves and with the Germans to form a unified state or a Union of individual countries. And, in principle, the current EU could go to this path – if not two but.
First, if Britain really out of the EU, the chances of survival is almost does not remain. Not because it is dangerous loss of the island, but because the Anglo-Saxons will start together “to bring down” the European Union. President Trump and his isolationists do not need a strong and United Europe, and the Anglo-Saxon elites in General do not want an independent Europe, which is the historical enemy of the “powers of the sea.”
In order to survive, the European Union should become a self – grown and in vitro Atlantic elites is a very big problem. Of course, the chance remains that European national elites are the forces that can take responsibility for an independent policy of their States and the “United Europe” as a whole.
Then the project of European integration could be maintained – albeit in a highly modified, revised: a Union of strong national States, the European core of Germany, France, Italy… Theoretically it is possible, if this year we will see the start of the update process of the European political class.
And, of course, to survive, the European Union will need to decrease. And unequivocally renounce claims on the former Soviet space – because to strengthen he will need to have good relations with Russia.
War on two fronts, with the United States and Russia, the EU definitely will not stand. On the continent there is a place for two unions – European and Eurasian – only if they can clearly distinguish between them. And observe it, because any attempt of movement of the boundaries of civilizations in the Eastern side in the last couple of centuries has ended for the “United Europe” very badly.