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Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Trump knows how to beat opponents of rapprochement with Russia

Political opponents trump made a real persecution of the new White house administration regarding “relations with the Kremlin” and “the possible lifting of sanctions against Russia.” However, they themselves admit that trump has real ways to improve relations with Moscow, even in such conditions. Including the lifting of the sanctions in fact, not formally cancelling.

After the resignation of General Flynn’s attack on the administration trump continues. The main reason for the attack remain relations with Russia. More precisely, the terrible threat of what trump can bring down the tension in relations between the two countries.

“Trump can still give Putin everything that he wants, not taking any action for the lifting of sanctions”

In the language of the opponents trump and Russia it is called to go on “unjustified concessions”, saying in Russian, “merge”. So to prevent situation, “trump leaked”, it is necessary to deprive the freedom of hands towards Russia. Never mind that this idea is impractical: foreign policy in the United States is largely the prerogative of the President, and the great influence of Congress is able to put a spoke in the wheel of the car of the White house, it is difficult to use due to the fact that Parliament controlled by the party of the President. That is the Republicans.

Yes, the Democrats would continue to make waves about what “trump – agent Putin”, Yes, some Republicans in Congress are also scared, “Russian spies in the White house” – and, in principle, Congress could adopt a bipartisan bill, which on Wednesday made such a prominent “fighters against Putin,” as the Republicans McCain and Graham and Democrat Cardin.

They offered to give decrees on sanctions against Russia adopted by Obama into law. Then the question of their repeal will be under the control of Congress, the President can cancel them only if the Congress does not adopt a resolution forbidding. In addition, for the lifting of sanctions, the US President will have to confirm that Moscow “has stopped operations in Ukraine, and cyber attacks against the Americans.” One of the initiators, Congressman Steny Hoyer said that Congress should “send a clear signal to the Russians that they cannot intervene in the internal Affairs of our country and be rewarded for it”.

“Every day we are learning more about the secret Affairs of the Trustees of the President of trump with the Russian government. We don’t know fully, how far has this communication, but if the administration will try to weaken sanctions against Russia now, it’ll look suspicious,” said another co-author of the bill Adam Smith.

Everything is great – except that the bill has been signed into law, it needs not only to gain a majority of votes in both houses, but also to be signed by the President. And here start the nuances. First, when voting is switched on party discipline – and if Republicans support a law opposed their party President, it would be tantamount to intra-party conflict. And now both parties – the party of the elite, and trump strongly want to avoid. The Republicans will declare war on the Tramp – that would be suicidal for now, and so divided the party. The Republican majority leader in the Senate Mitch McConnell has vowed to block the lifting of sanctions against Russia, but promised to support the bill McCain.

But even if this law had been passed, trump would have not signed it. And not because he was going to lift the sanctions – but because the bill limits his powers as President. Why would he? Even Obama was against the adoption of such a law, to say nothing about the trump, who initially declared the necessity of serious changes in American foreign policy.

However, say the most radical option: Congress suddenly passes a law and trump signs it. Or the President rejects the law, and the Congress overcome his veto. What? The funny thing is that it does not deprive trump of the ability to radically change relations with Russia – leaving formally, all the sanctions in force. And understand that even the most stubborn supporters of continuing the policy of confrontation with Moscow.

That’s about it, in fact, is spoken in published on 14 February Foreign Policy article Tom Malinowski “Not believe the promises trump to keep anti-Russian sanctions”. Malinowski a month ago, was assistant Secretary of state for democracy, human rights and labour relations. He worked not only with Kerry – he started as a speechwriter at the Albright was one of the leading cadres in the national security Council under Clinton, and from 2001 to 2013, he served as Washington Bureau chief of Human Rights Watch, where and returned back to the state Department. That is more than incorporated into the liberal American elite. And what says pan Tadeusz?

“It’s hard to imagine that the American President wanted to terminate years of America’s Alliance with democratic and unified Europe at the same time making deals with anti-American dictator in Russia. So we cling to any evidence to the contrary. And here are two events that give us reason to hope for the best.”

Hope Malinowski give two facts – the visit of the Pence and the Minister of defense of Mattis to Europe, where they are, he hopes, will reassure allies promise to protect them from aggression (of course, Russian), and that “seriously decreased the likelihood of agreement between trump and Putin in the manner of the Molotov – Ribbentrop Pact, which would provide for the abolition of anti-Russian sanctions in exchange for a joint struggle against ISIS*”. Decreased “risk” of the Covenant, of course, because of the resignation of presidential adviser for national security Michael Flynn, this “terrible person”, which the American liberal media managed to portray both “crazy hawk” and a proponent of concessions to Russia, and opponent of Russia and Iran, and Putin’s agents.

But these symptoms should not lull the fighters trump:

“But before we allow ourselves to calm down, we should remember that trump can still give Putin everything that he wants, not taking any action for the removal of sanctions.”

What a mess – former assistant Secretary of state reveals a terrible secret. It is worth quoting in detail.

“That’s how he can do it:

1. Don’t make any effort to implement the sanctions in life. Sanctions in themselves are not implemented. Over time, those against whom they are directed, will find it possible to evade them by hiding their assets, acting under false names and seeking new Resellers… That sanctions act, requires constant effort.

The Obama administration is not only regularly expanded its anti-Russian sanctions, but issued four “package of measures” to support them against the main assets of the persons included in the sanctions list, as well as against the agents and intermediaries who helped them hide the money. The state Department and the Ministry of Finance regularly appealed to banks and companies, warning them of the inadmissibility of questionable activity, favorable sanctions to legal and natural persons from Russia.

When, due to sanctions American company was forced to abandon transactions in Russia, the Obama administration pressured other countries, such as Japan and South Korea that they would not allow their companies to shrink that niche.

The white house if trump can notify the state Department and the Ministry of Finance that such efforts are no longer a priority, and start endlessly delayed fifth of the sanctions package (which, in principle, should be adopted in a few months). On paper, the sanctions will remain, but in practice they will lose their effectiveness.

2. Nothing should be done to strengthen European unity on sanctions. To rally the European Union to oppose Russian aggression in Ukraine, it was very difficult given the fact that such actions had to be agreed upon by all 28 member countries and Russia were constantly trying to break the weakest links in the chain of the EU.

President Obama at the summits “the big seven” at meetings and in telephone conversations with leaders of European countries have repeatedly urged them to extend the sanctions. Victoria Nuland and Dan fried, the state Department, and Adam Szubin from the Ministry of Finance has repeatedly traveled to Europe to maintain the unity of the EU on the issue of sanctions. If the administration trump will not resume these actions (now they are on hold pending new leadership and new directions) in the conditions when Britain intends to leave the EU instead lead him, and populist Pro-Russian parties will try to weaken French and German governments, European unity on the issue of sanctions will collapse…

But if Germany and France will stand up to this onslaught and will seek to strengthen anti-EU positions, trump Steve Bannon can quietly notify their European friends from the international alternative right type of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban that they would do well to veto the EU decision to extend sanctions regime. The weak links of the EU, such as Hungary, Slovakia and Greece, not to challenge the European consensus, partly due to the fact that the US, together with Germany, France and Britain urge them not to do it. But if the White house will begin to tell them that the us position has changed (whatever said people from office trump in his public statements), the balance is broken.

3. Still to cooperate in Syria and make clear that the fight against “radical Islam” outweighs upholding other values. Trump does not need a formal agreement with Putin to start with Russian in exchange of intelligence information and data about the targets in Syria. While the veterans from the Obama team asking the question of what trump would squeeze the militants of the “Islamic state” of Raqqa – the Turks or the Kurds, the President may choose a third option: in cooperation with the Russians to help the Assad regime to launch an attack on ISIS controlled territory (or at least to give him the keys to Raqqa when it will take Kurdish troops)”.

But at the beginning of this year were at the top of the state Department and observed the mechanism of the struggle for the maintenance of anti-Russian sanctions. And from his explanation it is evident that in order for the sanctions has stopped working, you just need to stop patching endlessly collapsing the network blockade.

Malinowski does not give any secrets – all know and trunovskom the White house, and Moscow Kremlin. The American sanctions will not interfere with the Trump and Putin to negotiate, if they wish. Because they will negotiate over barriers, over the design, which is built the global elite to block as such as Putin and sovereign Russia, and people like trump, with his idea to return to the United States national sovereignty. Interestingly, Malinowski and understands it, stating the truth in the language of the liberal media:

“In addition, the trump can do what is most necessary to Putin to abandon the maddening American habit to insist that human rights are a universal norm; to stop our annoying campaign against corruption and money laundering; to allow countries such as Ukraine, to swim or sink; and all the while constantly repeating the Central tenet of Moscow’s propaganda that Western democracy is no better than Russia, and therefore they have no right to criticize anybody. If trump will continue to say that American elections are rigged, that our city is a real disaster that we have dishonest journalists that we, as Russia, kill your enemies, Russia Today can claim that its mission is fulfilled.”

That is, the Russian-American relations will improve when the United States will waive any claim to global dominance – and, horror of horrors, trump is capable of it. Still, sometimes the former assistant secretaries of state are very open.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”


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