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Thursday, November 16, 2017

Single candidate from opposition in principle impossible


Alexei Navalny proposed to hold a preliminary election to nominate for the presidential elections a single candidate from all opposition parties, including the parliamentary. Idea how ambitious, so impossible – and not because the Kremlin against. The thing that represents itself the Russian opposition.

Before the presidential election little more than a year, and there is no intrigue. She don’t need anyone, except those who earn in the elections of capital – financial, political.

“Can non-parliamentary parties to nominate a single candidate for President?”

The intrigue is not needed, not because that is not necessary in principle, but because it is not in the power of objective reality. The confidence of the people to Vladimir Putin is on a level that allows it of course to be reelected to the presidency. Officially the head of state has not yet announced his nomination for a new term and is unlikely to make it before autumn. But there is no doubt that Putin is going to run. And so will remain President until 2024.

That automatically deprives 2018 elections the main intrigue. There will be no fight for the victory, but even in the second round Putin is gaining ground in certainly more than 50%. All that remains is the fight for second place after Putin in order to go to the polls in 2024 with a “good biography”.

While everyone knows that those distant elections decisive for victory will have the support of Putin. Not an administrative resource, and political blessing, that is, the recommendations he will give to the candidate, who became the successor of his case. These recommendations do not buy a second place in the elections of 2018. They will be the result of the assessment that Putin himself gives a professional and human qualities of the one whom he can call his own successor, the continuer. And to prevent this to happen are preparing now Putin’s opponents. They need to make a candidate from Putin in 2024 lost the election. Why? To lead the country in a different direction – a parliamentary Republic, liberal democracy, “States night watchman”. No, of course, among the opponents of Putin are the Communists and socialists – but they somehow don’t sit in exile and not build a multi-combination to “return the country to the right road of the 1990s”.

What is the opposition to Putin? This is a very different force from the cosmopolitan Westerners to Communists. Do they have something in common? Only that they are in opposition, parliamentary or not. If they can unite on this basis? Who exactly offers such a unification and, most importantly, why?

On Sunday, speaking at the Congress of “Solidarity” movement, Alexei Navalny – project 2.0 the Yeltsin – made a proposal to hold primaries and nominate a single candidate from all opposition forces, including the parliamentary parties. That is, by pre-vote to determine a single candidate from all opposition parties, from his own to the Communist party. “If I participate in such primaries and I lose in these primaries to someone, I certainly will support someone in these primaries will win, including Zhirinovsky”. At the same time Navalny declared that doesn’t doubt in his victory in the primaries, though, and considers the prospect of his participation in them “fiction”.

Indeed, while Navalny is the most popular representative in the ranks of non-system opposition, his chances to participate in the election of 2018 is now close to zero. Thanks to conviction and a suspended sentence received in the case of “Kirovles”, he has no right to put forward their candidacy at all on any election. But Navalny is a project long and he thinks about the year 2024. Which, he expects, the laws may be changed or his sentence will be reduced and he will be able to participate in the elections. And yet in order “to remember”, you need to shape the agenda. And the proposal to elect a single candidate from this series.

Bulk in this case gets the opportunity to participate in the preliminary vote, there are further promotion – after all, if all the opposition parties agree, they will all be advertising the upcoming primaries. And in parallel, and Bulk, even scolding him. And it does not matter win or lose Bulk, and in any case he is on horseback. After winning, he will concede the right to nominate whoever came in second, – “I, Putin’s regime has banned to move forward”. And lost, accused the Kremlin of rigging – “specially pumped Zhirinovsky”. There is, of course, the third option, the most revolutionary – winning the primaries, to start a campaign of boycott of the elections. That is, to threaten the power of the boycott in that case, if it “will not be allowed to vote”, that is, will not change specifically for Navalny election law.

So the idea with universal primaries of the opposition – the idea, of course, interesting, but futile. No one in the opposition is not interested in working for Navalny. That is, the Communists or Yabloko, of course, there are plenty of claims to Vladimir Putin or the government – but why would they increase the capitalization of the RAM “second perestroika”? The Bulk is so clearly stick out the ears of the oligarchy – gone with the wind of emigration, which is local, and with a fright, for example, the Communist party will play him? The fact that the Bulk of a well-turned demagogue and a populist, it is clear to all – and he really could win a General primaries of the opposition.

Not because stronger than all, but simply due to the fact that among the opposition-minded citizens there is a demand for new faces. Zyuganov, Zhirinovsky, Yavlinsky running for President for three decades, and understand that they will never enter the Kremlin. Navalny is on hearing only the last six or seven years – and he deftly juggles the conviction of the government itself and the requirements of social justice. It is unlikely that he will overtake Zhirinovsky, but the fact that their confrontation will be a gift for a “famous blogger”.

In addition to the ideological differences with the parliamentary parties of the Bulk, there is another limiter. It is so dramatically opposed to Putin personally that it makes it in the eyes of the parties of the parliamentary opposition “indecent man.” That is risky in terms of voter support. The Communists can’t explain how can be blocked with the man who nurtured the ultra, and American funds with the sole purpose of “take down Putin.” That is, to remove a man whom even the Communist voter support for his foreign policy, and strengthen the army, to restore public morality and moral values. That your Bulk will do something? Khodorkovsky will return to Ministers again appointed?

Indeed, the strategy itself is a single candidate is not feasible. First, the electorate of most of the parties there is the hatred for Putin, due to which there is a “Bulk project”. The denunciation of existing evils of the people in power generally have Bulk only to destroy the credibility of Putin – but no beating “the car is good”, nothing happens. Trust Putin, and in Bulk see power-hungry “accuser”.

But if not a parliamentary party, then maybe at least a large part of unparliamentary able to nominate a single candidate? No because there are many among the non-parliamentary socialist, Patriotic, that is, those who are not ready to unite with representatives of the liberal spectrum. In 2011 at the Swamp just “liberals” and tried to subjugate the energy of a protest of anarchists, leftists, nationalists, for whom the events were a good lesson.

So choose “single candidate” from the Bulk can be obtained only from the liberal side of the non-parliamentary opposition – from Parnassus to “Apple”. This in the amount of only a few percent of Russian voters. Ideal for version – up to 10%. And that “single candidate” from one tenth of Russian policy should be the main event of the election of the 2018? Of course not – although by the representatives of the liberal camp, he theoretically could benefit.

The ability at least something to agree to comply with these arrangements and offer them to the voters – it would be, without exaggeration, a great breakthrough in the fate of the deprived of parliamentary representation layer. But, alas, the chances that all the liberal party can agree between themselves and nominate a single candidate is very small.

Because all previous experience shows that just the inability to teamwork is the main hallmark of the “liberal” spectrum. Certainly not in the Duma because their ideas do not have the support of voters. But one of the reasons for the lack of this support is the chronic failure of “liberals” to move from the stage of criticism and accusation in the construction phase. The construction of the party, not to mention the Alliance parties.

To hold a preliminary vote within the party so far managed only the “United Russia”, when it chose its candidates for the recent Duma elections. Yes, to the first experience there are a lot of claims, but at least they tried and determined the winners. Other parties such a large voting never carried out, and experience online-primaries “democratic opposition” is a failure. So how to hold the elections now “single candidate” from all parties – if these “all” even agreed? Would be a big embarrassment, and only.

This does not mean that presidents can and should run only the “eternal Zhirinovsky and Yavlinsky.” This means that for a single candidate from the opposition has no objective nor subjective conditions. Speaking in Russian, it is not in demand, no such demand from the society – give us “one and indissoluble”. Because there is no request nor anti-Putin, Putin nor the other, because there are real, proven, Russian.

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