The official visit of Dmitry Rogozin to Iran cancelled for “technical reasons”, unofficially because of privacy violations. In reality, however, few Moscow intends to “reshape” bilateral relations with Tehran in their favor. And in addition to obtain compensation for everything that does and will do next, covering Iran from the wrath of the United States.
Media it became known that Vice-Premier Dmitry Rogozin at the last moment canceled a visit to Iran.
“At the moment opened a window of opportunity for a reconfiguration of Russo-Iranian relations”
Officially cancel explained that the “technical reasons”. However, it was leaked that the circumstances of the incident much more difficult.
Unofficially the reason for the cancellation were that the Iranian side has divulged information about the upcoming visit of the Vice Prime Minister, although the Russian side had requested privacy. Simultaneously, it was clarified that the subject of discussion was planned to “sensitive topics”, namely the reasons for the orientation of Iran for the purchase of planes from Western countries.
“We give Iran tremendous support, and they take the technique from someone who demeans sanctions,” said a senior source.
However, it appears that the informal explanation of what happened – there is not the slightest doubt that the “plums” were sanctioned and organized nature – cunning, and the situation is even more difficult.
We are talking about the fact that certain circumstances in the moment opened a window of opportunity for a reconfiguration of Russo-Iranian relations, Moscow took the opportunity to beat them in their favor.
As you know, recent years have seen a return of Iran to the forefront of world politics and a sharp acceleration in the international arena, primarily in the middle East, where he successfully regaining its status as a key regional power. After decades of sanctions, Iran was freed from them, that largely untied his hands and dramatically increased the freedom of maneuver.
In this period Iran and Russia are objectively interested in cooperation with partners that determines the steady strengthening of bilateral relations between the two countries. At the same time, Tehran has some trumps, which he until recently could use to talk with Moscow with strong positions.
First, we are talking about a frozen deal to supply Iran with s-300. Despite defrosting and carried out the supply, this topic remains a useful argument to put pressure on the Kremlin, on the theme “you are not a reliable partner”, trying to get those benefits.
Secondly, the Russian military operation in Syria Moscow to support Tehran. It’s not only about the direct action on the ground. Equally important is that Iran’s airspace is necessary, the Russian armed forces to perform several combat missions. For example, the routes of flights of strategic bombers pass through Iran. Once it even caused a nasty public argument over the use of Russian VKS Iranian military airbase.
However, in recent weeks the situation has changed. A new factor was the election of Donald trump President of the United States. As has become clear, that Iran was selected the new us administration as “enemy number one”. The rhetoric of the new President and his team in Tehran, very hard. While their threats remain largely unfulfilled, however, you cannot discount the possibility that sooner or later they will move from words to action.
Moreover, it is no secret that the deprivation of Iran’s support from Russia and driving a wedge between the two countries sees the new American administration an important direction of foreign policy. If the White house can achieve in this direction of success, then – with all the costs for the Kremlin – for the Islamic Republic, the consequences will be much heavier. Iran may be thrown back for decades ago in his political achievements.
As a result, the cancellation of the visit Rogozin seems straightforward (as is possible in middle East diplomacy) a message to Tehran.
Moscow has made an enormous contribution to Iran’s return as a full-fledged geopolitical player in the international arena. Given the current position of the US administration, it will have to do even more, providing the political (and military) cover Tehran that the Kremlin faces serious complication of relations with the United States.
These circumstances create the conditions for a sharp strengthening of the positions of the Kremlin in the Russian-Iranian dialogue, allowing the brackets to bring the previous circumstances have affected the Kremlin’s position. Iran offers to compensate for costs incurred and will be on Moscow, ensuring that the geopolitical front.
The reference to Iranian preferences in the choice of aircraft for procurement hints, where the Kremlin is ready to start a conversation on this topic.
Now we have to wait for the reaction of the Iranian side. Experience shows that bargaining in the East – it’s not quick and exciting.